Diablo® III

Legendary "Drop Rates" Explained (TLDR Warning)

04/18/2014 11:04 PMPosted by Lion
Your trying to find a pattern in a random loot system. Just because this has been your experience does not scream conspiracy. I have had lucky streaks and have found multiple upgrades in 1 day. I have had dry streaks were I find nothing but 2 handers and junk legendaries. You need to look into how the loot system works, how magic find works.


Finding upgrades, does not mean what I said does not hold true.

If you go back and calculate, you will still average out to 1.5 - 2 legs per hour of actual drops despite short term variance in extra drops.

Ontop of that, some items are simply more rare than others. Take into account the Kridershot vs every other bow.
All evidence being not only anecdotal, but as you said, on a small sample size...

I can't help but feel like I notice some of the same things.

Whatever way of looking at it, I don't think a single person can attest that drop rates scale linearly with clearing speeds. Not when tracked across a reasonable period of time.
This system is based on some type of time/monster kill ratio. Basically, working harder and faster through rifts means squat.
Bumpy Bump! Nail on the head here!
This actually makes so much sense!
04/18/2014 11:15 PMPosted by Jester
All evidence being not only anecdotal, but as you said, on a small sample size...

I can't help but feel like I notice some of the same things.

Whatever way of looking at it, I don't think a single person can attest that drop rates scale linearly with clearing speeds. Not when tracked across a reasonable period of time.


The fact that they obviously don't scale, and at the same time always maintain that 1-2 hour rate is more proof that an RNG system isn't controlling the drop, moreso than one is.
Also, as a way to "fix" their current implementation.. leave the current 1-2 leg / hour rate... but increase the chance to get higher teir legendarys per level of torment. Maybe increase my Kridershot from .00001% chance to drop in T6 to 1%?

Sounds much more fair.
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While this seems like a possible out come your research on the topic needs to be more systemic. We don't have any data regarding how many legendary items are found and the times they are found for both you and your friends girlfriend.

But you did make me interested in testing this out my self. I'll be doing this after finals, while also recording every specific detail I feel is needed to create the least bias study possible.

This would include:

Date
Time of Started Play Session
Time Finished of Play session
Time of every legendary drop from each play session, in the order they drop for each play session.
All this done in the same exact area. (Probably T1 Rifts)

I feel 40 hours split between 2 characters would be a sufficient starting point for this.

OP I don't know if you know much about statistics but I did a little study to see the drop rate of Normal Adventure Mode Champion/Elites.

http://us.battle.net/d3/en/forum/topic/12504510382?page=2#24

So far the rate seems to be about 1%.

I don't have much in the way of real statistical analysis so I wouldn't know how to tell if the drops are consistent with a static 1% drop rate or a dynamic drop rate. I plan on getting this to about 1000 Kills, but can't really work on it due to finals coming up.

And if a new patch comes out before I can finish this I'll just be starting the Time Gated Drop rate Theory.
04/18/2014 11:20 PMPosted by Thacker
Also, as a way to "fix" their current implementation.. leave the current 1-2 leg / hour rate... but increase the chance to get higher teir legendarys per level of torment. Maybe increase my Kridershot from .00001% chance to drop in T6 to 1%?

Sounds much more fair.

Or make every legendary have the same chance of dropping. It's not our fault that they made 90% of the other legendaries boring and weak.

Also, increase the drop rate by 1000%. YES 10x. I don't wanna grind this game 12 hours a day to get a Calamity on the 6th month. I wanna do OP builds, fun builds and have FUN with the game.
Edited by gbasso#1939 on 4/18/2014 11:53 PM PDT
Sigh,

This has been something I've been suspecting for a very long time now.

Since the ROS launch, I've logged in on average maybe 16-18 hours a day. At one point, I may have had over 100 Forgotten souls and for the sake of finding something to do, used them for the most random enchants as a means of curing boredom.

Gauging from my guild mates drops and my real life friends I've noticed the exact same patterns. No matter how much more time and effort I put in than others. It never paid off. Time and time again, a random guild mate or real life friend that hasn't logged in for days to a week, will log in for a few hours, and BAM, Kridershot, Thunderfury, Shard of Hate and Cindercoats (and yes, two in one session).

Meanwhile, I've been slaving away everyday (yes I have no life, at the moment). And the only things that seem to drop are essentially 75 percent chance of a 2-hander (I play monk mostly) and the rest are rings and amulets.

Just before reading this post, I had two 2-handers drop in 3 hours play time.

Damn even as I'm watching streams of other people playing. There is a player with 8 Thunderfury's, while I cannot even get a moderately decent Legendary one-hander if my life depended on it.

Why does it feel like there are some that are "The Chosen One's" ?

And so do i have to log off for a week now and come back hoping that I can get some kind of chance at something that is not a 2-hander, ring or amulet? Or something closely resembling an upgrade or I daresay an item that might be something along the lines of Shard of Hate, Thunderfury?

A few days ago, I had around 20 plus legendaries drop for me in one day in a session of around 12 hours or so. All of which were completely worthless (75% 2handers, 25%rings and amulets). The day after, I had 6 legendaries drop (also just as worthless) in around a 14 hour session.

Reading the OP's points, It all finally starts to make sense on every level and now I feel extremely frustrated. I'm extremely disappointed, as if I had wasted all this time for the past month. When all I should have been doing was play for once a week.

Say it ain't so.
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04/18/2014 11:15 PMPosted by Jester
All evidence being not only anecdotal, but as you said, on a small sample size...

I can't help but feel like I notice some of the same things.

Whatever way of looking at it, I don't think a single person can attest that drop rates scale linearly with clearing speeds. Not when tracked across a reasonable period of time.


While his post is Anecdotal its very easy to see if this is true.

I laid out what I will be doing to test this after finals. You can easily do this your self while playing for fun as long as you are sure to take down data and information in the most un-bias way you possibly can.
Edited by TeamWorkTom#1750 on 4/18/2014 11:40 PM PDT
Really wonderful post. Agree with pretty much everything but doubt Blizzard will ever admit to it. Having worked in the game industry, I can tell you none of this surprises me, and it also doesn't surprise me that a company would mislead the public and have all kinds of controversial and crazy mechanics happening behind the scenes they won't let players know about.

Anyway... 3 things in particular stick out to me in your post that I would also like to emphasize on.

1. Timed Legendary Drops - Absolutely agree. I built a demon hunter build that can clear rifts in well under 10 minutes on T1. I can usually run about 7, maybe 8 rifts per hour. My results? WORSE legendary drop rate per rift. Prior to this speed running rifts, I was averaging a legendary about every 3 rifts on Torment 1. Three rifts took about 15 minutes each, so 45 minutes total). All and all I averaged one legendary every 45 minutes with the way I was running rifts (mostly slower public games). Now that I'm speed running them, I'm averaging one legendary every 6 rifts, and once again I can complete 7-8 rifts per hour. So essentially I'm still finding just one legendary every 45 minutes, even though I am killing substantially more elite packs, goblins, and trash mobs in that 45 minutes. This evidence I experienced supports this topic point perfectly.

2. Rested Legendary XP - Finally someone else said it. I've been claiming this system exists since D3V. Without fail, everytime I take a break form playing Diablo 3, my legendary drop rate is substantially increased when I next play. Back in D3V I would often take a month beak here or there, and when coming back I never saw some many legendary items raining from the sky. It was like one every 10 minutes or so. This still happens in RoS, so it's good to see someone else that believes this is occurring.

3. Tiered Legendary Drops - Yep. Kudos again on pointing this out and explaining it. Why else would Kadala give me 100000 of the Gladiator Gauntlets and St Archew gloves but nothing else. How come 75% of the time that a gree drops, it's a Litany or Blackthornes. You hit the nail on the head again.

All and all, great post.
Edited by firebug#1374 on 4/18/2014 11:43 PM PDT
Once again guys it's not about Blizzard admitting... or copping to anything I've claimed here. Hell, it may not be true... (but it damn sure seems like it is)

What needs to happen is there needs to be actual reward for being no lifers. By 300 hours I should have seen every single item in the game twice, especially considering the single player and small group mentality of this game.

You can fire up a game the size of skyrim... and see and do pretty much everything in less than 100 hours. Yet in Diablo you can go 300 hours and still never see an item you desperately wish to play with because theres no vendor... no trading... no way to obtain it aside from hoping it one day drops running the same content over and over?

Smh.
http://us.battle.net/d3/en/forum/topic/12505811309#1 ...
This whole theory gets completely debunked by the fact strong players (a lot of streamers) manage tons and tons of legendaries per hour because of their efficient farming at higher torment levels.
Thacker are you the one who got banned from NEOGAF in the d3 thread? Awful forum, would love to punch some people on there
This has dawned on me recently, and I discussed it with 2 friends who play the game a lot. All 3 of us play a lot everyday, and we all know certain things are true because we have played so much everyday.

At first I was always playiing at least t1 because it seemed like I would get better items and more experience. Now I play "normal" and the items I get are just as good as when I was playing in "Torment" Since good legs are so seldom found, I mostly have rares on my characters. When playing "normal", it's easy to play and faster, so I actually get more items because I'm moving a lot faster. The leg rate is about the same although I don't keep track of the timing of it's drop. But it seems like I get the same amount of legs on any level I am playing.

Now that I'm playing my DH, I feel very discouraged. I've been getting the same rare drops over and over again, and the legs I get are not good ones. I haven't played must lately because I feel very bored with the game. The great items that were promised with the expansion just aren't there.

Before the expansion, my DH had very good gear, so I'm not finding items are much better than what she already had. What happened to the new gear that was supposed to be so great? It's not not there. This makes the game boring and frustrating to me.
04/18/2014 11:56 PMPosted by Zack
This whole theory gets completely debunked by the fact strong players (a lot of streamers) manage tons and tons of legendaries per hour because of their efficient farming at higher torment levels.


I wouldn't say debunked.
Most streamers are rolling as 4, so lets say the cap was an average of 3 / hr at T6.

This would equate to 12 legs / hour for the group which is a ton when a lot of the time they are funneled to the streamer himself.

My theory isn't that you get more legs / hour at higher difficulties... is thats it doesn't matter how fast you kill in the higher difficulty all that matters is the time you spend there.

Take a 500k / 25m toughness crusader and struggle through T6 for an hour. (boring)

Take a 2m DPS 7m toughness Barb and face roll it and at the end of the day I feel as if they would both see the same number of average legs / hour (given a decent sample size... say 10-20 hours. I have no way to test this, but I'd be anxious to see if someone was willing.
04/18/2014 11:59 PMPosted by Verdi126
Thacker are you the one who got banned from NEOGAF in the d3 thread? Awful forum, would love to punch some people on there


I get banned from there consistently, and in this case I got banned for the same thing twice, I guess one mod didn't check my ban history to see I had already been punished for the "offense"
04/18/2014 11:56 PMPosted by Zack
This whole theory gets completely debunked by the fact strong players (a lot of streamers) manage tons and tons of legendaries per hour because of their efficient farming at higher torment levels.


I don't see Kongor with Thunderfury or Shard of Hate
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