Diablo® III

Legendary "Drop Rates" Explained (TLDR Warning)

It also feels like the drop rates/quality is adjusted for the weekends. Anyone else notice this? I know this isn't directly related to the timed drops. But then again, i'm more on the issue of wasting time by spending so much time on a game where it feels like its best to just login once or twice during the week to farm for items. Moreso on the weekends if that could be adjusted.
04/19/2014 12:49 AMPosted by Benjamin
Agree with the OP. Just like to ask how this pertains to caches? Everything I've seen from a blue states that difficulty does not affect the cache contents, but I haven't seen anything that discredits caches from being "legendary timer" affected. If they are, would it be advantageous to run speed bounties (trying to get my friggin ring) first thing after not playing for a couple days? And would it then be even more advantageous to wait to open them until I've not played for a couple more?? I think I will test this to find out. I've grown frustrated watching all my friends get two, three Rings while I still have not seen one.


I will give my evidence on caches.

The first few days of the expansion it was raining legs from caches. After day 2 - 3 it stopped for me almost completely. I feel they probably were on a % based drop system (and they were obviously affected by the difficulty you were in considering normal caches could drop imperial gems), but then once split farming became a thing and blizzard saw how efficient people were at farming them they were put towards the timer system. The timer simply says YES or NO and if YES then legendary = cache specific and or random from pool which then follows the tier system I described prior.
Ok, fair enough. Theyre super rare no doubt about that. It still boils down to the longevity of the game which is still being balanced. The drop rates are low balled so people wouldnt be max geared right away. I'm sure if after a couple months people are still having trouble finding high level gear they'll up the drop rates.
I'm not saying you are, but people always complain about drop rates. Like when RoS first came out and ppl complained deaths breathe was too rare, now everyone has hundreds. If blizzard fixed all these 'problems' without enough information they be taking steps back far too often in balancing the game.
trust me when i tell you bliz is monitoring drops, legs/hour, and farming difficulty and there's not much they're going to do to change certain things until they have enough information. 300 hours might be a ton for you not getting certain drops but they'll look at the drops over millions of hours and decide how to move from there.
04/19/2014 12:41 AMPosted by Jinndra
04/19/2014 12:33 AMPosted by KinGX


If you played poker professionally for 6 years you should be able to go 5 hours without finding a leg and laugh it off because poker beats all irrational fear and emotion out of you regarding variance.


Why *should* someone have to laugh this off though? You think it's a rewarding experience to play for 5 hours and get nothing? If that is in fact happening, then that's also bad design, regardless of how the player feels about it.


Thats opinion based whether someone would have to laugh it off or not. My point wasnt that someone would need to laugh it off or even that people go 5 hours without finding a legendary, simply that i was surprised to see someone who was so involved with short term variance for a big part of their life make a post like this.
04/19/2014 12:38 AMPosted by Thacker
04/19/2014 12:27 AMPosted by Wesker
While your theory has merit, I am having a very hard time believing that the devs completely eliminated %chance to drop for legendaries when killing monsters.


Considering there is 0 transparency on the subject from their end and we are given arbitrary PR statements like "+100% bonus chance to drop a legendary inside a rift" I really don't see how it's that hard for you to believe.


It's hard for me to believe because the % drop rates for killing monsters can be very low but it would have little impact on your conclusion. Let's say, for example, that killing a white mob has a .0001% to drop a leg. on kill and a unique/champion pack has a .001% chance to drop a legendary on kill. The % chance for a monster to drop a leg. on kill is still there, but you would not notice it and so you can't say with certainty that there is no % drop mechanic.
Edited by Wesker#1530 on 4/19/2014 12:58 AM PDT
04/19/2014 12:51 AMPosted by page
by my experience by now I should have had at least one straight flush :p damn no lifers ^^


I'll put it in perspective for you.....

the odds in texas hold em are as follows for getting a royal flush

Using both of your hole cards: 1 in 64,973
Using at least one hole card: 1 in 32,486

According to my profile I've completed 1868 bounties and 871 Neph rifts

If each rift only contained 200 monsters ( a very conservative estimate ) that means I will have killed 174,200 monsters in rifts alone.

If each monster in that rift had a % chance to drop a krider shot based on a true RNG system, that would mean that on average it was approx 3 times less likely to receive a krider shot than it would be to make a royal flush using both my cards in texas hold em. Considering one hasn't dropped for me that would mean the chance was even lower.
I believe my math here was right, I might be way off. It's late.
flexyana isnt so wrong, thacker.

u re right but, we still have to understand that we ve a lil tiny chanche to get a leg from a rarepack.
i guess this chanche is around 0.2 or let it be 0.25. if u re doing rifts only u will get a few more legs over hours , thats for sure, cos there the chanche is 0.5 than.

nevertheless ur statements are right.

cos the most legs u will get are time-legs.

regards
04/19/2014 12:54 AMPosted by KinGX
Ok, fair enough. Theyre super rare no doubt about that. It still boils down to the longevity of the game which is still being balanced. The drop rates are low balled so people wouldnt be max geared right away. I'm sure if after a couple months people are still having trouble finding high level gear they'll up the drop rates.
I'm not saying you are, but people always complain about drop rates. Like when RoS first came out and ppl complained deaths breathe was too rare, now everyone has hundreds. If blizzard fixed all these 'problems' without enough information they be taking steps back far too often in balancing the game.
trust me when i tell you bliz is monitoring drops, legs/hour, and farming difficulty and there's not much they're going to do to change certain things until they have enough information. 300 hours might be a ton for you not getting certain drops but they'll look at the drops over millions of hours and decide how to move from there.


In a game without economy, or player balancing and trade looking at global drop statistics across all characters is not the correct way to balance it for the individual considering it's a complete lock out for many people with they want to play and use.
While I would call this a theory it seems like a plausible theory.

I definitely think something besides RNG has far too much to do with our drop rates.
You brag about "experience with RNG" and then give us a 16 hour sample size. Are you !@#$ting me?

Then you talk about tiers of items, which is also ridiculous. There is no such thing as tiers, every leg has a weighted drop chance. Why even bring up a tier system that is overly convoluted and throw in arbitrary percentages to dazzle the masses? You have no idea what the percentages are, and although it is obvious some legs are more common than others you can explain that easily.

Please go take a class in statistics before coming on to this forum and posting drivel and lauding it as a well formed theory.
04/18/2014 10:50 PMPosted by AXELBRAIN
I've taken several inferential stat classes. A very small sample size will be very similar to the population. However, you are right: the more data you have, the closer to the true population mean you get. But you are wrong in saying that a small sample size can not be representative of the population. All you need is a sample size of at least 10 random samples of 5 out of, let's say, a billion samples to be accurate within a .05 or .01 chance...Cause it can, and it is. And it is what most science is based on. Much with confidence interval padding, however.


i wonder why this is brought up so seldomly, this guy is right!
Everybody saying you need a huuuuuuuuughe sample size and your testing means nothing, i cant agree. They teach you that !@#$ in math class.
Played RoS for a good amount of hours and that is exactly how it behaves (the time based drops and playing higher t means %^-*)
Played again yesterday after a 5 day break (not logging in) found 2 legs in 5 mins, than did 3 RIFTS nothing. Logged out.
I havent played d3 since wednesday bec i am out o f town and will be back on sunday. We'll see.
Posts: 114
Sorry to inform all of you, no matter how right or wrong this matter is, there's a very low chance that anything is actually gonna happen.
95 Undead Warlock
7415
Posts: 18,274
LoL "I am an IT networking administrator " that can't make a paragraph." I'm not buying it. I'll tell you why. He has 7 characters level 70. I guess he got those playing casual, well he could if he exploited chest or spent his hours split farming in normal or such.

Now what are the odds he could have that many geared characters but no class specific set items or sets. I'm not buying you could find all that great gear and not have actual set items for a class. I see many hours of play at less than T1 when I look at his characters.

So basically if you put in the hours you get the gear, especially if you were to do chest, kill the blacksmiths wife ect before they fixed those things. The more you kill the more gear drops the better chance to get legs, end of story. So play low kill lot of mobs and you will get drops.
I solo, I play T1 things go slower. I don't care as I'm working builds as opposed to farming gear. If I wanted legs I'd drop down and slaughter the lower levels. However I's say my chanchs of getting class set items is 100% better than the guys doing split bounties in normal.
Posts: 25
i would really want a blue to answer this..
04/19/2014 01:12 AMPosted by Deadru
LoL "I am an IT networking administrator " that can't make a paragraph." I'm not buying it. I'll tell you why. He has 7 characters level 70. I guess he got those playing casual, well he could if he exploited chest or spent his hours split farming in normal or such.

Now what are the odds he could have that many geared characters but no class specific set items or sets. I'm not buying you could find all that great gear and not have actual set items for a class. I see many hours of play at less than T1 when I look at his characters.

So basically if you put in the hours you get the gear, especially if you were to do chest, kill the blacksmiths wife ect before they fixed those things. The more you kill the more gear drops the better chance to get legs, end of story. So play low kill lot of mobs and you will get drops.
I solo, I play T1 things go slower. I don't care as I'm working builds as opposed to farming gear. If I wanted legs I'd drop down and slaughter the lower levels. However I's say my chanchs of getting class set items is 100% better than the guys doing split bounties in normal.


Thanks for the personal attack right off the bat. Did this thread offend you somehow?

I ran T6 core runs for 3 days straight. I killed manglemaw for 10 hours with a group one day.

I have 3 pieces of Marauder, and 2 pieces of Earth, 1 piece immortal kings and 1 piece of akarat for my Crusader.
Edited by Thacker#1999 on 4/19/2014 1:16 AM PDT
Bottom line is blizzard wants you to play 30 minutes every few days?
I just don’t look forward to how long its going to take me to get this Kridershot (if I ever do)


That's just the first part of RNG out of the way.

Then you have to deal with identifying it and seeing if the weapon is usable, aka if it has only 0 or 1 useless stats on it.

Then if that passes, you get to go deal with another form of RNG, the Mystic.
04/19/2014 01:15 AMPosted by Soul
Bottom line is blizzard wants you to play 30 minutes every few days?


Blizzard knows that playing with friends = playing and staying interested in the game longer.

One friend in T5 gear, and one friend in T1 gear will not really want to play with each other much which will result in a drop in interest, which will result in moving on to another game / not recommending it to friends / not holding interest for the next Xpac.

Take a look at what they are doing for the console version. A temporary system that boosts the lower players stats so he can stay equal to his friend for the gaming experience.
I still disagree.

Simply, as you already mention, if you do public groups, rest assured that 85% will be horrible, where going from one pack to the next takes way, way too long to call it "effective farming".

The most legs, by a long shot, I get in super-efficient groups and also in those rifts (not all are the same in terms of mob density) where lots of packs are close together. More packs = more legs.

I actually do not have doubts that other things factor in with drop rates, no one actually ever denied this but how all those various factors play together...we can only speculate.

You somehow voice that the system is unfair and that everyone should get a chance to have the gear they want because they're entitled to it.

To be honest, I don't see the issue since nothing can be more fair than a RNG based system which is non-biased and neutral BY DEFAULT.

I myself have already many times pondered about "targeted items", not only in regards to finding loot but also and in particular for crafting and enchanting. Note that EVERYTHING is RNG in this game.

Fact is that any means to more easily obtain targeted items (or targeted stats) would open up a whole bunch of can of worms with massive problems...for once people would farm only those spots and trying to get "the best" gear only, disregarding the rest of the game. People would try to exploit, farm, whatever if they know THIS or THAT type of gear might drop from THIS or THAT mob only and nowhere else. While this is "normal", say in games like WoW it could cause problems here.

Tell me how your system is supposed to look like where "everyone can get the gear they want"...and how this should be implemented as opposed to a neutral, un-biased RNG which gives all players the same chance to find something? Would you want a certain boss dropping Thunderfury so tomorrow 80% of players will farm THIS boss while the remaining game will become un-interesting?

Similar/Related....with enchanting/rerolling....if we had 100% freedom to reroll ANY type of gear....say..my Azurewrath which is obviously a cold-weapon as good as it even gets....if I could freely reroll it into a fire-weapon.....the result would be that the "uniqueness" of gear would be lost...which obviously ALSO cannot happen. Then we could as well give everyone generic gear and the ability to roll whatever abilities/stats "we want" on it. As a result, the "trying to find gear", the main motivation of the game would of course be thrown out of the window. RNG is simply a basic, main corner-stone of how this game is designed, regardless of exactly HOW now it works.
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