Diablo® III

Legendary "Drop Rates" Explained (TLDR Warning)

04/19/2014 12:59 AMPosted by Thacker
04/19/2014 12:51 AMPosted by page
by my experience by now I should have had at least one straight flush :p damn no lifers ^^


I'll put it in perspective for you.....

the odds in texas hold em are as follows for getting a royal flush

Using both of your hole cards: 1 in 64,973
Using at least one hole card: 1 in 32,486

According to my profile I've completed 1868 bounties and 871 Neph rifts

If each rift only contained 200 monsters ( a very conservative estimate ) that means I will have killed 174,200 monsters in rifts alone.

If each monster in that rift had a % chance to drop a krider shot based on a true RNG system, that would mean that on average it was approx 3 times less likely to receive a krider shot than it would be to make a royal flush using both my cards in texas hold em. Considering one hasn't dropped for me that would mean the chance was even lower.
I believe my math here was right, I might be way off. It's late.


pretty unfair comparison, live poker players will average 30 hand /hour. How many monsters do you kill an hour? thousands probably. Online the very best players might average 600 an hour (literally less than 1% of players)
04/19/2014 01:17 AMPosted by EonReD
it and seeing if the weapon is usable, aka if it has only 0 or 1 useless stats on it.

Then if that passes, you get to go deal with another form of RNG, the Mystic.


Yes this is correct but still 1000x better than what he had BEFORE RoS. There was no mystic. If you happened to get a wep w/o sock you trashed it. Simple as that. Now you can enchant ONE stat, even add a socket to weapon. As compared to RoS this is a HUGE improvement, regardless of RnG and costs.
04/18/2014 09:10 PMPosted by Bizi
i read...and then i went and put on my tin foil hat


I've been trying to understand this for a while so I consulted the hive:

  • tinfoil hat
  • Number 1 fashion accessory for unemployed conspiracy theorists around the world!
    The illuminati was scanning my brain, but not since I got this tinfoil hat!

    Surely, this cannot be the reference.
    04/18/2014 09:04 PMPosted by Thacker
    I believe that drops are completely time controlled to maintain an even flow of legendaries into the game world. What does this mean for you and why should you be upset? It means that no matter how fast, or efficient you are at killing you will on average get the exact same number of legendaries as Johnny casual that kills at 1/10th the rate that you do.


    This is demonstrably false, and a cursory attempt to gain any numbers would have shown that it is incorrect. With such a blatant falsehood in the first few paragraphs, how can this post be taken at all seriously?
    90 Night Elf Hunter
    14595
    Posts: 229
    I COULD NOT agree more with the OP statements. I believe time is more heavily involved than what we are lead to believe. I also believe. There is MOST certainly a tiered system to legendaries.

    If each set piece has an equal chance to drop compared to any other set piece, then why has Blackthorn become such a joke. How often have you seen this:

    [Clan][Playername]: has looted <Blackthorns>
    [Clan][Playername]: FML!!
    Edited by ArkAngel#1113 on 4/19/2014 1:30 AM PDT
    Of course some idiot reports this
    interesting, posting to read later
    Know what is hilarious? The first night of the second Kadala buff, I ran 3 rifts, and gambled every single time after each rift, which was about 50 shards each time, ~10 legendary gloves. I was trying to get a good roll magefist, so the first time I gambled 10, got 2, the next 2 times I gambled 10, I got 1. The next 2 days after this, I spent 1500-2000 shards and got no legendaries.

    The other crazy thing is every single time I get more than 1 legendary from a "batch" of rolls from Kadala, they are always back to back. I have gotten probably 4 or 5 back to back legendaries from Kadala since RoS came out.

    It "feels" like legendaries are on a timer. And I played a pretty solid amount of Diablo 3 vanilla after the legendary drop rate buff. It didn't feel time dependent then. It feels timed now. I know something is going on.

    I COULD NOT agree more with the OP statements. I believe time is more heavily involved than what we are lead to believe. I also believe. There is MOST certainly a tiered system to legendaries.
    Ask yourself how many Blackthorn set pieces you have received and how many class specific set pieces you have received. I would speculate that that a large majority of players have received a larger portion of BT. Now, i know some people will scream..."well, well well, i have tons more set pieces than blackthorn, your logic sucks" But im gathering since Blackthorn has become such an inside joke in D3, there is some merit to the tiered Legendary system.

    If each set piece has an equal chance to drop compared to any other set piece, then why has Blackthorn become such a joke. How often have you seen this:


    And rarer legendary drops is fine... when you have a trading system. It was harder to get exceptional and elite unique drops in Diablo 2 because they had to pass a number of checks to become either elite or exceptional, and then they had to pass the check to drop as a unique item. It was fine because you could a) trade up, and b) increase your MF to increase your chances.
    Edited by EonReD#1766 on 4/19/2014 1:32 AM PDT
    04/19/2014 01:30 AMPosted by EonReD
    Know what is hilarious? The first night of the second Kadala buff, I ran 3 rifts, and gambled every single time after each rift, which was about 50 shards each time, ~10 legendary gloves. I was trying to get a good roll magefist, so the first time I gambled 10, got 2, the next 2 times I gambled 10, I got 1. The next 2 days after this, I spent 1500-2000 shards and got no legendaries.

    The other crazy thing is every single time I get more than 1 legendary from a "batch" of rolls from Kadala, they are always back to back. I have gotten probably 4 or 5 back to back legendaries from Kadala since RoS came out.

    It "feels" like legendaries are on a timer. And I played a pretty solid amount of Diablo 3 vanilla after the legendary drop rate buff. It didn't feel time dependent then. It feels timed now. I know something is going on.

    I COULD NOT agree more with the OP statements. I believe time is more heavily involved than what we are lead to believe. I also believe. There is MOST certainly a tiered system to legendaries.
    Ask yourself how many Blackthorn set pieces you have received and how many class specific set pieces you have received. I would speculate that that a large majority of players have received a larger portion of BT. Now, i know some people will scream..."well, well well, i have tons more set pieces than blackthorn, your logic sucks" But im gathering since Blackthorn has become such an inside joke in D3, there is some merit to the tiered Legendary system.

    If each set piece has an equal chance to drop compared to any other set piece, then why has Blackthorn become such a joke. How often have you seen this:


    And rarer legendary drops is fine... when you have a trading system. It was harder to get exceptional and elite unique drops in Diablo 2 because they had to pass a number of checks to become either elite or exceptional, and then they had to pass the check to drop as a unique item. It was fine because you could a) trade up, and b) increase your MF to increase your chances.


    This exact scenario has happened to me as well
    Funny, I've been desperately searching for a pattern so I could validate all the conspiracies posted on the forums since the launch of 2.0. I've taken notes, both literal and mental. I've restarted my computer after an hour, I've relaunched the client after two, I've went a day without playing, logging on to fully expect a "log-on" legendary. I've farmed rifts, bounties, and quests and more rifts and bounties and quests.

    The only pattern I've noticed...

    Is that there's no readily discernible pattern.
    04/19/2014 01:24 AMPosted by RedBeard
    04/18/2014 09:04 PMPosted by Thacker
    I believe that drops are completely time controlled to maintain an even flow of legendaries into the game world. What does this mean for you and why should you be upset? It means that no matter how fast, or efficient you are at killing you will on average get the exact same number of legendaries as Johnny casual that kills at 1/10th the rate that you do.


    This is demonstrably false, and a cursory attempt to gain any numbers would have shown that it is incorrect. With such a blatant falsehood in the first few paragraphs, how can this post be taken at all seriously?


    Yes, and 100%. Any anyone who blindly "agrees" with the premise the OP makes in my opinion possibly never run super-effective groups where packs are killed within seconds...and compared it to the other, vast majority of runs which are far from "effective" with under-geared/bad players.

    The OP, basically, makes a claim that time is all that counts and that speed/efficiency and number of mobs/killed in X time doesn't matter...and this is just NOT true nor is there any indication based on my own exp. that this would be the case. You don't get the most legs by "taking it easy" and running in horrible groups who take forever to kill a pack or being in a group where people waste a lot of time with thrash.

    On the other hand, I might agree with the OP's claim about tiered legs but (IMHO) there was never a doubt about this either. Obviously, there are "common" legs and there are more rare, higher tier legs. But this is not really a secret either.
    Funny, I've been desperately searching for a pattern so I could validate all the conspiracies posted on the forums since the launch of 2.0. I've taken notes, both literal and mental. I've restarted my computer after an hour, I've relaunched the client after two, I've went a day without playing, logging on to fully expect a "log-on" legendary. I've farmed rifts, bounties, and quests and more rifts and bounties and quests.

    The only pattern I've noticed...

    Is that there's no readily discernible pattern.


    I'm going to strongly disagree with you on this one. This is just based on the pattern I've noticed.

    I've definitely noticed that after I haven't played in awhile, I have a tendency to find a "clump" of legendaries, either 2 or 3, in a matter of about 15 minutes, after that my luck significantly drops off. I think there's something to be said about the proposed rest system that the OP describes.
    <span class="truncated">...</span>

    This is demonstrably false, and a cursory attempt to gain any numbers would have shown that it is incorrect. With such a blatant falsehood in the first few paragraphs, how can this post be taken at all seriously?


    Yes, and 100%. Any anyone who blindly "agrees" with the premise the OP makes in my opinion possibly never run super-effective groups where packs are killed within seconds...and compared it to the other, vast majority of runs which are far from "effective" with under-geared/bad players.

    The OP, basically, makes a claim that time is all that counts and that speed/efficiency and number of mobs/killed in X time doesn't matter...and this is just NOT true nor is there any indication based on my own exp. that this would be the case. You don't get the most legs by "taking it easy" and running in horrible groups who take forever to kill a pack or being in a group where people waste a lot of time with thrash.

    On the other hand, I might agree with the OP's claim about tiered legs but (IMHO) there was never a doubt about this either. Obviously, there are "common" legs and there are more rare, higher tier legs. But this is not really a secret either.


    You are using what you perceive to be your own skill and ability to clear fast with a group, as confirmation you are being rewarded more than me or anyone else.

    The girl I referenced in the OP? She will get the exact same number of legs / hr as you.
    Me? Running balls out or casually playing alt tabbed in a pub? I'll average the same number of legs as you. The only reward you'll get is the timed achievements for completing a rift in under x amount of minutes.

    This hurts your pride, and it should. It means all the effort you placed into making your character better and more efficient is literally for nothing... other than personal feeling of achievement and accomplishment.

    This SHOULD upset you, and it SHOULD be changed.
    Blizzard has removed skill and ability from the reward system. It makes complete sense WHY they've done this from a business standpoint, so there's really no arguing against it from a player standpoint.
    Edited by Thacker#1999 on 4/19/2014 1:43 AM PDT
    I dont think what the OP is saying is correct, but I see how it might seem so.
    Its just that 99% of the legendaries we get are due to the pity timer.

    The actual drop chance from anything thats not a chest is so incredibly low that no matter what torment we farm and how fast we do it, we always roughly end up having the same amount of legendary drops with the occassional rnd spike.

    I mean for me personally I havent gotten more drops after the drop rate buff to rifts at all. Not when they increased it by 25% and not when they increased it by 100%. One should see twice the amount of legendaries after a 100% increase, am I right? Well thats not the case for anyone I know that regularly runs rifts as their farming routine.

    So how can this be possible? Well because the legendaries before the buff mainly were dropped to the pity timer and rarely due to actual drop chance. Now instead of 1 out of 100 legs there are 2 out of 100 that drop due to chance rather than due to the timer.

    If that is the case, and I would bet money that it is, this is a huge problem. Anyone that loves optimizing their farming route and loves to farm efficiently has to upside doing so. You found a way to kill 1000 elites per hour? Well, it doesnt friggin matter. Still 1 leg per hour. You can finally tackle T6 at a decent speed? Same amount of drops, all due to the pity timer.
    Which makes getting gear in the first place absurdly illogical if you think about it.

    Getting gear to farm faster for more gear is what we are (thinking) we are doing, but in fact we are not getting any better at farming by obtaining better gear. Which makes the whole game pointless. We literally cant progress if this is the case.
    Edited by Carzeri#2782 on 4/19/2014 1:59 AM PDT
    From my experience (which is a quite a lot hours since 2.0 came out) the OP theory make a lot of sense.
    I always have the feeling that no matter how I progress in efficiency I get about the same average drops per hour, that after a long period not playing I often (I will not say always) have crazy luck and that there are "common legendaries" that everybody get multiple times and "rare legendaries".

    Along the way I was also always thinking "nah... it's just random, it's so easy to make conspiracy theory on RNG" but the more I play the clearer this become and the more all these ideas stick.

    Also, this kind of system make sense from a Blizzard stand point (giving everybody a shot at progressing) and if you think about it, they have that "safe net" system that can totally impact your drop chance, so the tech is there, couple with the fact they don't want to release number on the drop chance in different modes, just the expected increase from one mode to another.
    Edited by Bloodstorm#2718 on 4/19/2014 1:59 AM PDT
    04/19/2014 01:50 AMPosted by Carzeri
    I dont think what the OP is saying is correct, but I see how it might seem so.
    Its just that 99% of the legendaries we get are due to the pity timer.
    The actual drop chance from anything thats not a chest is so incredibly low that no matter what torment we farm and how fast we do it, we always roughly end up having the same amount of legendary drops with the occassional rnd spike.
    I mean for me personally I havent gotten more drops after the drop rate buff to rifts at all. Not when they increased it by 25% and not when they increased it by 100%. One should see twice the amount of legendaries after a 100% increase, am I right? Well thats not the case for anyone I know that regularly runs rifts as their farming routine.
    So how can this be possible? Well because the legendaries before the buff mainly were dropped to the pity timer and rarely due to actual drop chance. Now instead of 1 out of 100 legs there are 2 out of 100 that drop due to chance rather than due to the timer.


    Man, you are very poorly informed about the pity timer. It only activates 4-6 hours after not finding a leg while killing monsters. How many times have you honestly gone 4 hours without a leg while farming non stop? for me its been one time. 1/a conservative 100 legs, that would mean 1% of drops are affected by the pity timer.

    This is assuming the pity timer is still after 4 hours like it was in the beta which i've read recently it isn't anymore but now after ~6. Also if you're doing something like split farming and a leg drops for you but you dont see it/grab it, the timer still resets.
    A realistic guess would be .1% of leg drops are affected by that timer.
    04/18/2014 09:59 PMPosted by AXELBRAIN
    yes, please bump this people.

    I've noticed this too. I didn't put the math behind it, but when I had crappier gear and running T1-T2 rifts in 20-30min, I was getting just the same amount of legs as I do now running T5 and T6 in 20-30min. This is all so disheartening, and I really don't won't this to be true but it really seems like it is.

    They are bringing the whole modern warfare type style of game play to this genre: they want to eliminate as much competition as possible so that more people feel welcome, gimping vet players so they are on par with 10yr old kids playing a video game for their first time... More people = more money. Its such a shame. They should leave arpgs alone with this junk and leave it in mmorgs. At the very least, keep it away from the pc versions of arpgs and shooters and let the console gamers have fun with it.

    If you can't hang, you can't hang. If someone can clear T1 in 50 min and get 3 legs, then someone who can clear it in 5 min should get 3 legs.


    I totally agree with this. I dont play insanely crazy hours since the expansion, but I do play quite a bit. I think people who play 5x more than me, however, should be getting 5x more legs/loot than me.

    I mean you can really lump gamers into 3 cohorts: casuals, mid-core, and hardcore..I don't understand why some of the guys putting in crazy hours are struggling to get most of the gear they want, rolled the way they want. Considering trading is banned a market flooded with godly legs shouldnt matter. The hardcore will own nearly all the godly gear and create various builds with various characters and continue to sink in many hours. The mid-core players will start getting godly gear for most likely one character maybe more and enjoy their time trying to gear to the levels of the hardcore obviously at a slower pace. Lastly the casual will enjoy scoring some solid gear and spend time trying to get a few godly pieces of gear. This is how this game is intended to work, the current system in place is a total gimmick.

    I mean with no real monetization scheme in place, and the bulk of digital/physical sales realized at this point on PC, what is the point of holding back on giving the players what they want?

    Just my opinion. I really want to continue playing this game, but getting blackthorns is starting to become very tiresome lol.
    I believe the system is a bit more simple. There is a floor, and a ceiling. Blizz is just not public about the ceiling.
    If you have bad luck, the system boosts you. If you are lucky, the system gates you.

    This is why you seem to get legendaries in streaks, then can go hours without one. Your hours without kicks in and the boost allows them to drop normally once they drop. When you reach a certain amount in a given time, the system gates you from obtaining them.

    This cycle keeps repeating itself, and prevents people who play 12 hours a day from getting "too far ahead" in Blizz's blind eyes.
    Read it all, and I agree with this. Seems everything fits, and I don't like this bull!@#$ system since I am also a no lifer and farm like a BOT 0-24H yet you can't see the difference or get the rewards.

    Still no blue post? Nice...
    Probably the best post about this matter.
    Not so many data but it surely is consistent with what me and my group are experiencing.

    Still, MF.
    If time is factored in but chance isn't anymore, would it be completely useless [+30% of 0 = 0] or would it lower the timespan to the next leg?
    This topic has reached its post limit. You may no longer post or reply to posts for this topic.

    Please report any Code of Conduct violations, including:

    Threats of violence. We take these seriously and will alert the proper authorities.

    Posts containing personal information about other players. This includes physical addresses, e-mail addresses, phone numbers, and inappropriate photos and/or videos.

    Harassing or discriminatory language. This will not be tolerated.

    Forums Code of Conduct

    Report Post # written by

    Reason
    Explain (256 characters max)
    Submit Cancel

    Reported!

    [Close]