Diablo® III

Legendary "Drop Rates" Explained (TLDR Warning)

04/19/2014 02:00 AMPosted by KinGX
04/19/2014 01:50 AMPosted by Carzeri
I dont think what the OP is saying is correct, but I see how it might seem so.
Its just that 99% of the legendaries we get are due to the pity timer.
The actual drop chance from anything thats not a chest is so incredibly low that no matter what torment we farm and how fast we do it, we always roughly end up having the same amount of legendary drops with the occassional rnd spike.
I mean for me personally I havent gotten more drops after the drop rate buff to rifts at all. Not when they increased it by 25% and not when they increased it by 100%. One should see twice the amount of legendaries after a 100% increase, am I right? Well thats not the case for anyone I know that regularly runs rifts as their farming routine.
So how can this be possible? Well because the legendaries before the buff mainly were dropped to the pity timer and rarely due to actual drop chance. Now instead of 1 out of 100 legs there are 2 out of 100 that drop due to chance rather than due to the timer.


Man, you are very poorly informed about the pity timer. It only activates 4-6 hours after not finding a leg while killing monsters. How many times have you honestly gone 4 hours without a leg while farming non stop? for me its been one time. 1/a conservative 100 legs, that would mean 1% of drops are affected by the pity timer.

This is assuming the pity timer is still after 4 hours like it was in the beta which i've read recently it isn't anymore but now after ~6. Also if you're doing something like split farming and a leg drops for you but you dont see it/grab it, the timer still resets.
A realistic guess would be .1% of leg drops are affected by that timer.


You answered it yourself pretty much. If nobody has streaks like not getting anything for 4 hours, the the timer obviously sets in before 4 hours. And since I too have rarely ever gotten >2 hours without getting a legendary, no matter how well or poorly I am farming, one can only assume that the 4-6 hours claim is bull. There is obviously something in place that sets in way earlier. Call it pity timer or whatever you may. Rng would have people run dry 3-4h without leg considering the abysmal drop rates, but that somehow never happens. How could that be possible if the pity timer only set in after 4-6 hours?

On another note, blizzard wants us to farm rifts, but it really doesnt matter what we do. You can dibble dabble around in story mode or adventure mode with minimal kills/hour and without the rift-bonus and you will still average out at the same, always.
The only thing that sets rifts apart is kadala, which helps you get targeted legendaries.
I've farmed with 130% MF on my second DH that you can see in my profile, and there's been no discernable difference in drop rates.

Also of note, over my sample size of 300 hours I've actually had better luck solo farming rifts than I ever did in a group (despite the 30% increase in MF) as many others have also felt and noted.
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Sometimes we don't have to have cold hard facts, sometimes gut feelings can be correct. And my personal gut feeling is, that i get just as many, if not more, legendaries running solo.
04/19/2014 02:41 AMPosted by Thacker
I've farmed with 130% MF on my second DH that you can see in my profile, and there's been no discernable difference in drop rates.

Also of note, over my sample size of 300 hours I've actually had better luck solo farming rifts than I ever did in a group (despite the 30% increase in MF) as many others have also felt and noted.


Youre saying "despite the 30% increase". Think about it. The 100% increase hotfix did nothing. At least not for me and not for anyone in our guild/my flist. The base drop chance from mobs is so incredibly small that increasing it by anything other than maybe 5 digit does not affect the gameplay - you simply can not notice a difference.
04/19/2014 01:06 AMPosted by mahchine
You brag about "experience with RNG" and then give us a 16 hour sample size. Are you !@#$ting me?

Then you talk about tiers of items, which is also ridiculous. There is no such thing as tiers, every leg has a weighted drop chance. Why even bring up a tier system that is overly convoluted and throw in arbitrary percentages to dazzle the masses? You have no idea what the percentages are, and although it is obvious some legs are more common than others you can explain that easily.

Please go take a class in statistics before coming on to this forum and posting drivel and lauding it as a well formed theory.


Theory is in fact theory. I dont believe OP believes with 100% certainty that it is true, but OP is obviously experimenting an using a sample size to draw a conclusion on what he believes is a plausible theory.

If a specific leg item has a specific weighted drop chance, you could essentially drop them in tiers...%ranges being tiered. 5%-10% Tier 1 and so on down the line. I look at data all day at a major video company (not blizz lol)...and your completely incorrect. When we analyze cohorts of users, game events, revenue etc, they are typicaly tiered out. Lol if we didn't tier out specific data points we'd waste a !@#$ load of money. What would make it implausible that specific legendaries(godly to garbage) could be stored in specific tiered hashes that have a equivalent % probability drop associated with them. You dont need to model data to make general inferences about how the loot system seems to be working, which you are right about.

A general assumption I would make is that Blizzard keeps godly item drop probabilities very low as to keep daily active user base up.I believe they fear active user decay once people are "geared the !@#$ out". Who knows though? I for one left the game after 3 months initially because the game economy was a bit to screwed up vs the time I could invest in the game. I came back during the patch 2.0 and have slowly experienced myself the godly drop rates decay quite a bit. I can efficiently farm up to t3-t4 and do experience similar issues to OP.

Personally, I have no issues with this timed drop rate or the issues with drops, but the quality of loot needs much improvement. Im not sure what % would make the community happy but I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Edited by knowyrrole#1130 on 4/19/2014 3:01 AM PDT
I have long suspected as much.

Drops do seem to be better at the start of a game, after a short hiatus. This before they dwindle and rarely occur at all. Then the safety legendary kicks in, gives you some hope, and you continue farming.

I've been playing a lot since RoS, but I am slowly phasing Diablo 3 out of my life again. I may just log on once in a while to try my luck, but the current RNG system is just way too dishonest on dedicated players. 5 bad legendaries and 1 average one is not worth 10 hours of my time.
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04/19/2014 02:41 AMPosted by Carzeri
You answered it yourself pretty much. If nobody has streaks like not getting anything for 4 hours, the the timer obviously sets in before 4 hours


Except people DO have streaks of not getting anything for that long or longer. There are posts here about it. However, it will be VERY uncommon. Simply based on the normal drop rates 99% of people will get a leg way before the safety net kicks in.

04/19/2014 02:41 AMPosted by Carzeri
There is obviously something in place that sets in way earlier. Call it pity timer or whatever you may. Rng would have people run dry 3-4h without leg considering the abysmal drop rates, but that somehow never happens. How could that be possible if the pity timer only set in after 4-6 hours?


Ummm no. What you are seeing is the normal results of the basic drop rate. If you graph the drops you will get a bell curve with the average at a certain point. At last report they wanted that average to be around 1 per 2 hours in Normal with no buffs. That means most drops, just based on that drop rate will fall under the main part of the bell - which would be 1-3 hours.

01/23/2014 12:16 PMPosted by Travis Day
The system that is in place should never be experienced by 99% of the population, it's there for the 1% who just get really bad random rolls for an excessively long period of time. If we want you to get a legendary every 2 hours, the system basically says "ok it's been like double/triple that period of time, just help the guy out!"
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04/19/2014 02:15 AMPosted by Psylosis


This is why you seem to get legendaries in streaks, then can go hours without one. Your hours without kicks in and the boost allows them to drop normally once they drop. When you reach a certain amount in a given time, the system gates you from obtaining them.

This cycle keeps repeating itself, and prevents people who play 12 hours a day from getting "too far ahead" in Blizz's blind eyes.


I believe this is accurate. There are two glaring pieces of evidence that make this plausible:.

1. They refuse to release the actual base drop rate chance (most likely because it is variable),

and

2. The nerf to everything outside of Rifts, which more strictly limits the number of slot machine pulls a player gets in a given time frame, thus keeping players from circumventing Blizzard's system.
i totally agreed with OP 100%!
tis explain why i get 1-4 leg every 3-5 rift. there is timer.
04/19/2014 02:52 AMPosted by Cyberbard
I have long suspected as much.

Drops do seem to be better at the start of a game, after a short hiatus. This before they dwindle and rarely occur at all. Then the safety legendary kicks in, gives you some hope, and you continue farming.

I've been playing a lot since RoS, but I am slowly phasing Diablo 3 out of my life again. I may just log on once in a while to try my luck, but the current RNG system is just way too dishonest on dedicated players. 5 bad legendaries and 1 average one is not worth 10 hours of my time.


Gee I'm lucky I log in and try builds some work some don't in the process I get drops some good some bad. No matter how long I play I never feel I wasted my time. If I felt that when I logged in I was wasting my time just because of the drops I'd be doing something else.
The "gate" theory actually makes a lot of since as well.
04/19/2014 02:54 AMPosted by MissCheetah
Simply based on the normal drop rates 99% of people will get a leg way before the safety net kicks in.


Here's the thing Misscheetah - people have no reason to believe you in that.

Not you personally, but "you" those who keep chiming in about how that safety net is not the reason for the drops. Everything we are told about the game seems a far away reality no one playing "normally" ever experiences. "Normal play" is everyone else.

Simple example: if rifts drop rates were buffed by 100% and legs are supposed to drop around one every 2 hours during "normal" gameplay... shouldn't rifts drop 1 per hour?

In MY experience (and others' I'm certain) this is simply NOT the case. Remotely.

And why is that? All the "fixes" that were implemented to minimalize over-productive routes to farming legendary drops trickled down and ALSO affected everyone else... yet nothing was done to compensate for that baseline nerf ---> TO EVERYONE.

I had better luck pre-hotfix because i ALSO opened chests, i ALSO killed uniques.

I did not farm them, did not "exploit" them ---> I encountered them NORMALLY.

But now they drop less loot/often. For everyone. And the "buff" to rifts is a joke.

Simply put... we dont believe "you" who claim otherwise. Experience forbids it.

(edit- i feel I should add in here Blizzards track record for breaking more with every fix than is actually fixed. It matters to credibility regarding claims of "working properly").
Edited by MrWarglaive#1296 on 4/19/2014 3:27 AM PDT
04/19/2014 02:54 AMPosted by MissCheetah
04/19/2014 02:41 AMPosted by Carzeri
You answered it yourself pretty much. If nobody has streaks like not getting anything for 4 hours, the the timer obviously sets in before 4 hours


Except people DO have streaks of not getting anything for that long or longer. There are posts here about it. However, it will be VERY uncommon. Simply based on the normal drop rates 99% of people will get a leg way before the safety net kicks in.

04/19/2014 02:41 AMPosted by Carzeri
There is obviously something in place that sets in way earlier. Call it pity timer or whatever you may. Rng would have people run dry 3-4h without leg considering the abysmal drop rates, but that somehow never happens. How could that be possible if the pity timer only set in after 4-6 hours?


Ummm no. What you are seeing is the normal results of the basic drop rate. If you graph the drops you will get a bell curve with the average at a certain point. At last report they wanted that average to be around 1 per 2 hours in Normal with no buffs. That means most drops, just based on that drop rate will fall under the main part of the bell - which would be 1-3 hours.

01/23/2014 12:16 PMPosted by Travis Day
The system that is in place should never be experienced by 99% of the population, it's there for the 1% who just get really bad random rolls for an excessively long period of time. If we want you to get a legendary every 2 hours, the system basically says "ok it's been like double/triple that period of time, just help the guy out!"


Explain to me why it doesnt matter what you do to get your leg/2-hours. I can do rifts and get 1 per 2 hours. I can run bounties, get the same. I can do bossruns for giggles and get the same.
Even when I am basically not killing a whole bunch of mobs I still get these drops. How can that be possilbe if it really is the droprates that STEADILY provide us with legendaries? How can a drop RATE be STEADY in the first place, thats a contradiction.
Im in a full guild and nobody so far has had the problem of not getting anything for 4 or more hours, no matter what they do.
I really wanna believe you, but I just cant. I have tried the most efficient ways to farm, killing enormous amounts of elites per hour on certain spots but never got an increase in legendaries. It really feels like kills/hour doesnt matter at all and thats a huge problem.
Very nice Thread. I have the same feeling when playing diablo and you expressed it very well. I just want to love this game, but why is blizzard making it so hard for me ? :/
04/18/2014 09:04 PMPosted by Thacker
Unobtainables (Ice Climbers, Witching Hour, Calamity, Kridershot) = 0.0000000001 %


Anyone else feel like he just held down the "0" key here?
04/19/2014 02:41 AMPosted by Thacker
I've farmed with 130% MF on my second DH that you can see in my profile, and there's been no discernable difference in drop rates.

I farmed with MF capped, so 300%, vs the basic 10% my gf got for being in my same party.
She did end up with 3 legs vs 2 for me.
After a few hundred hours in RoS and THOUSANDS of hours total I can 100% agree with everything the OP is saying. I'm in Vent talking to 8 buddies who all play, and to everyone here the OP's post has been common knowledge for a while now. We all know that the system was originally designed around a RMAH, and anyone who thinks that a business leaves it's revenue up to 'random' or 'RNG' is simply an idiot. Now the AH is gone, but we are left with the same system.

The auto linking of items in clan chat has really exposed a broken loot system that has been common knowledge to us hardcore no lifers for almost 2 years now. Now even the casuals are seeing complete loot logs of 100+ players, so there really isn't much to defend anymore. Whether you're farming caches in normal or running rifts(with that 100% increase or whatever), it's the same thing....loot timer pops, ding ding ding a few legends drop in a short window, then it's 'see ya in 90 minutes'.

I've known how this system has worked for longer than most, but the alternatives(like PoE) are equally if not more flawed. The Diablo franchise has become more 'meh it's something to do until a good new game drops' as opposed to the era defining games of Blizzard North, and this loot timer or bust trash is one of the biggest reasons.
Edited by nGio#1100 on 4/19/2014 3:22 AM PDT
Yes the drop system is not great, anyone who thinks it is fine is probably just on a lucky streak, but their time will come. Thing is OP you are not coding for Blizzard which makes your theory, just that, a theory, but a theory stated in a overly arrogant manner considering the lack of substance or data to back it up.
04/19/2014 03:16 AMPosted by Carzeri
I can do rifts and get 1 per 2 hours. I can run bounties, get the same. I can do bossruns for giggles and get the same.


And yet rifts got buffed by 100% - THAT is what i want explained...

How can they still be the worst (for me) route to drops?

Or more specifically, the same at best? 1 per 2ish hours like clockwork?
Edited by MrWarglaive#1296 on 4/19/2014 3:30 AM PDT
04/19/2014 03:28 AMPosted by MrWarglaive
04/19/2014 03:16 AMPosted by Carzeri
I can do rifts and get 1 per 2 hours. I can run bounties, get the same. I can do bossruns for giggles and get the same.


And yet rifts got buffed by 100% - THAT is what i want explained...

How can they still be the worst (for me) route to drops?

Or more specifically, the same at best? 1 per 2ish hours like clockwork?


They are garbage for me too. I often run them in normal (or used to) because I thought when I can do 5 rifts in the timespan than other people do T2 rifts, I should get more loot. But thats not the case. I can power through several rifts per hours or I can chill through only one or two, watching some youtube in between, getting some coffee, whatever you wanna name, but the result is always the same.
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