Diablo® III

RNG: Debunked and explained

-This thread is devoted to the mechanics of RNG, to explain how certain elements work, and to explain how gaming the system is possible for some aspects, without the use of any hacks, exploits, bots, or any method of cheating. I am only going to share some of the information I know because I'd rather not let every secret out of the bag. Though let me make this perfectly clear, I do not support the use of any of the aforementioned and highly discourage the posting of anything pertaining to the above.

-Please keep this thread civil. RNG threads are common, many people like to jump on the tinfoil hat bandwagon and flame, insult and impair the ability to have a meaningful discussion on an aspect endemic to D3.

-Much attention has come to my thread posted last week in the Wizard forums here, a post outlying certain elements of my strategy have also gained notoriety over the last several hours on reddit and quite possibly other places I'm not aware of.

I will begin by explaining what most of us know, followed by new information as well as some fringe theories.

What we know:

-The drop rate of legendaries is not evenly distributed; some legendaries drop more or less frequently than others.

-Some legendaries are only obtainable in torment difficulty or higher, the only legendaries that require torment difficulty have a base level requirement of 60, or 70. (e.g. Tal Rasha's base level is 60)

-Many people note that the frequency of leg drop appears equal to, or greater than the quantity dropped in torment difficulty.

-The benefit of running in higher torment difficulties is reduced by inefficiency. That is, if it takes a long time to progress in any given difficulty you are reducing your drops and gold/xp per hour because you don’t kill fast enough.
What hasn’t been considered:

-Legendaries can only drop from mobs equal to the level of the game +3. That is, a piece of Tal Rasha’s gear will never drop in a level 40 game, regardless if whether or not it is a torment level 40 game, or if there is a lvl 70 character in group or otherwise. The reason it is +3, is because the lowest level a game can be before it will drop a legendary is level 11, however the lowest base level of a legendary is 8.
To expand, Heart of Iron is a level 8 base level chest; it will drop starting when the game is level 11. In a level 11 game a Cindercoat will never drop because it is a base lvl 31 item.

-Torment items have a low chance of dropping, by playing in torment difficulty you are reducing the chances of getting a legendary because your loot table now contains items that don’t drop frequently.

New information:

-The rarity of a legendary is primarily determined by its base level requirement, in addition to smart loot. For example, items with a low base level requirement, such as St. Archew’s glove, or a Gladiator Glove, are more common than a Frostburn because the former two have a lower base level requirement. If you are playing a wizard gambling gloves, you might expect to obtain large quantities of Stone Gauntlets, but this would be untrue because Stone Gauntlets are smart looted for Strength classes.

-Some exceptions to the notion that a character cannot obtain an item exceeding its level exist. For example, a level 61 character, in a level 70 game would ordinarily obtain level 61 gear. However, that character can obtain a piece of lvl 70 gear if that gear was obtained from Kadala. This does NOT work for every piece of gear but DOES expose some flaws in the mechanics.

-The loot table is determined by toon, per game. If it were possible to play in one game indefinitely, there would be certain legendaries you would have mountains of, and certain ones that will never drop. You could open 50 A1 Cache and not get a single RRoG because RRoG is not in your table for that game.

-The quantity of bloodshards obtained in a rift is determined by difficulty, not by level of the game. A T6 level 20 game will give the same amount of bloodshards as a T6 level 70 game.

-To determine what legendary finally drops, several systems are used. The first system determines what items are in the loot table. The second determines based on your loot table what item has a chance of dropping. The third determines if the item actually drops or not. Since tables are finite, clogging your table with items that have a low chance of success on the third system decreases the amount of legendaries you see.
How to make use of this information:

-Knowing that certain items cannot drop based on difficulty setting and game level, you can seek specific items out based on their base level requirement, and if they are torment only items or not. For example, the item Moonlight Ward has a base level of 8, 8+3 is 11. In a level 11 game, the only legendary amulets that would ever drop from a mob for a wizard would be Squirt’s Nek and MLW. Since both are base level 8, both are dropped more frequently than Xepherian Amulet, for example. Knowing this you can easily hunt down vast quantities of these legendaries because you have restricted the possible drops to items under the level of your game, and in addition you have made monster killing much easier because low level mobs deal little damage, and have little health.

Now you say, “OK great, I now have 50 of item x, but they are all low levels”. At this point, you can take advantage of Kadala. Kadala’s drops are equal to the level of your toon, not the level of the game. So while a lvl 70 in a lvl 15 game could only get lvl 15 drops from mobs, if they got the same leg off Kadala, it would be level 70. Once you have determined an item is in your loot table, you have a reasonable chance of getting it off Kadala. You can take this further by eliminating certain drops from your table as well. For example, if you want a Magefist, with a base level req of 31, you would start a level 34 game. Unfortunately, Magefist competes with a couple of other level 31 gloves. In order to guarantee a magefist, you would have to play the level 34 game for an extended period of time to ensure the other gloves are not in your loot table. You can't rule out higher level gloves, but those tend to be better and are naturally rarer than lower base level items anyway. This process can take several hours but produces great results.

-This process works with all items below level 70 base requirement excluding lvl 60 torment items. In addition, while Kadala is certainly efficient, the same results can be reproduced with bounty cache. The way loot rolls in a cache is determined by the level and class the cache was obtained, however, the exact loot in a cache is not determined until it is opened.

-Knowing this information explains many of the patterns commonly witnessed. For example, it’s quite common to see a particular group member getting a high quantity of legendaries, however, almost all of them are likely bad because the bad ones have a higher chance of dropping, and that player had the unfortunate luck of spawning with a poor table. On the other hand, another group member may go many rifts without much luck because his/her loot table is filled with rarer items. Nothing is more discouraging than going an extended period without a legendary, only to get a 2 handed item, but by checking the base level of the item it’s quite often found that the item is one with a high base level, thus a rare, albeit still bad item.

Moving forward
This is a taste of what goes into Diablo's RNG. There's more, I know some of it, some I don't. If you think I'm full of crap that's OK, refute me constructively. This method, in addition to some extra information I don't plan on making public at this time has served me well. I have nearly every legendary worth having, and multiple of them at that. If you think you have information truly beneficial to me and would like to share information in exchange for more of what I know then send me a message on Diablofans @ TealDawn, and I'll get back to you.

Happy hunting all! http://i.imgur.com/ByzaEwk.jpg
Edited by TealDawn#1499 on 4/28/2014 10:39 PM PDT
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) ***UPDATED 5/4***

Thanks to the Koreans and diabloinc for providing the drop rate master list! (http://diablo.incgamers.com/blog/comments/diablo-3-legendary-drop-rates-revealed)

"I’m skeptical about the figures for Set Items. They are listed as weighted at 1/2 the frequency of legendary items (in most cases) but my experience and that of other players I’ve talked to is that sets are *much* less common that that. Maybe 1/3 to 1/5th (to 1/10th?) as frequently found as legendaries." -diabloinc


A: This is because not every item is on the loot table in every game. In order to get an item to drop, a Tal's Hat for example, first it needs to be in the loot table, then you need to roll a hat, then that hat needs to roll Tal, thus making the % chance of getting it that much harder.

Finite loot table confirmed:
There may be additional factors to consider as well. For instance, the whole thing with the game assigning 5-7 items of each slot to drop in each game. That’s a real thing, confirmed by a lot more testing results I’ve seen since we posted that article, but it’s not known how those items figure in with these drop odds. -Diabloinc
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Q: Are you saying that in a level 34 game, my level 70 toon would be unable to obtain an item, such as Chantodo's Force from Kadala with a base level of 60 because the loot table is suppressed to items 31 and below?

A: No, the loot table can include items above the level of your game, those items would simply never drop from a monster because monster drops are set at game level.


Q: Why bother playing low level games if you can still get high level items off Kadala?

A: Playing low level games allow you to test your loot table quickly because monsters die faster and the only legendaries that can drop are ones similar to the game level. By knowing what's on your table you can determine whether or not it's worth gambling for the same item at level 70.

Q: If I leave game and come back on a different character will my loot table be the same?

A: No.

Q: If I leave game and return on the same character will it have the same loot table?

A: Unknown at this time.

Q: My clan mate got item X in the same game as me, does this mean I can get it too?

A: No, loot tables are independent; though that doesn't mean you don't have some of the same items in your loot table as him.

Q: I've been playing the same low level game for awhile but I'm not finding hardly any legendaries, shouldn't I get a lot because I'm killing fast on high difficulty?

A: Not necessarily, if your loot table is filled with items that can't yet drop, you will have less items on your loot table that can. Try making a new game, or joining that game on a new character.

Q: People have been saying that I can only up to 5 different items per socket in a game, is this true? And if so, why has someone stated they've gotten 6 one-handed weapons?

A: This was true for the D3 Vanilla, it's plausible ROS uses a very similar system, the reason someone may experience getting 6 one-handed weapons is because there are many types of one-handed weapons, Axes, Swords, Wands etc. In addition it's also possible that ROS simply set a finite cap at the number of different legendaries per game, not necessarily constricting it by item type.

Q: Why would Blizz design a fixed loot table upon game entry that does not include every legendary?

A: There are many possible reasons, several documented on the forums here already. To elaborate on several including a few quotes from members of this community;

-Despite what some may believe, Blizz doesn't really want drops to be THAT random. This is obvious by the fact that we witness certain drops more frequently than others, if every legendary had the equal chance of dropping, many players would have most every legendary by now, thus players with everything would have no reason to play. By producing random spawning fixed loot tables, Blizz makes the game less random overall because you can create games that will never give you the item you are seeking.

-"Because in D3 Vanilla there were only a small band of legendaries per slot that could drop at any given iLevel and thus no reason to have the whole loot table loaded at any given point in time." - Ossian

-"Or it could be as simple as they had some code already set up for a pool of 100 legendaries from way back in the day (even as far back as D2 or another game entirely)... and they reused it... but had to artificially decrease the legendary pool to 100 to use the same code and used this method to do so." - Eflin

-" I am also a programmer and can confirm that computers can't handle tables with more than 6-9 entries. We simply don't have the technology yet." - JackStraw

Q: People say you multibox to get all your legs, is this true?

A: No, while I do multibox I only have 2 accounts, 3 if you include my girlfriend's. I rarely multibox and doing so provides me no advantage when using this method for three reasons. Bloodshards and Kadala legs are BOA, as are cache drops. In addition, loot tables are different for each toon.

Q: Blues posted a week ago in a different RNG thread and stated that loot tables are not generated on character creation, how does this interact with your post?

A: That post does not pertain to anything outlined here.
Edited by TealDawn#1499 on 5/4/2014 3:01 PM PDT
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04/28/2014 10:29 PMPosted by TealDawn
The rarity of a legendary is primarily determined by its base level requirement


had a question about this. how can you tell what the base lvl requirement is on a item. since there are many items that can drop at any lvl. like i got my 1st TF at lvl 67, today a person in the clan i am in got one an he was around 40ish. i guess my question is when a item can drop at any lvl how does that item have a base lvl
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"-The loot table is determined by toon, per game. If it were possible to play in one game indefinitely, there would be certain legendaries you would have mountains of, and certain ones that will never drop. You could open 50 A1 Cache and not get a single RRoG because RRoG is not in your table for that game."

Where did you see/hear this?
Are you saying I shouldn't have left the game where I got my random Mask of Jeram? Or my Jade Harvester pants?
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The loot table is determined by toon, per game.


Where are you getting this info? Guessing?

I am extremely skeptical of this, however I have to admit it would actually explain the patterns I see in game. Still I think it's human nature to sometimes see patterns when none really exist.
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Do I understand you correctly that if I wanted a Kridershot (level 31) -- I would have to join a level 34 game -- that is, a game started by a level 34 player? It isn't clear from your post what the mechanics are but I'm willing to test it.
Edited by Eisenhorn#6230 on 4/28/2014 10:45 PM PDT
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Why would Blizzard do it this way vs. how it was done in Diablo 2? It sounds incredibly complicated compared to the tiered method used before.

Does parking a low level character in town allow you to hold the game level steady the entire time? I thought they still leveled up from there now, albeit possibly slower.
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04/28/2014 10:38 PMPosted by KiranB
"-The loot table is determined by toon, per game. If it were possible to play in one game indefinitely, there would be certain legendaries you would have mountains of, and certain ones that will never drop. You could open 50 A1 Cache and not get a single RRoG because RRoG is not in your table for that game."

Where did you see/hear this?
Are you saying I shouldn't have left the game where I got my random Mask of Jeram? Or my Jade Harvester pants?


Not necessarily. What I'm saying is that not every item you want will be in the game you start.
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04/28/2014 10:46 PMPosted by Draxanoth
Why would Blizzard do it this way vs. how it was done in Diablo 2? It sounds incredibly complicated compared to the tiered method used before.

Does parking a low level character in town allow you to hold the game level steady the entire time? I thought they still leveled up from there now, albeit possibly slower.


You can keep a toon as a placeholder if you want, but this is not necessary. If you create the game at any given level it will stay that level regardless of whether or not that toon leaves the game. If you keep a toon in game it could possibly level up from lore xp.
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04/28/2014 10:44 PMPosted by Eisenhorn
Do I understand you correctly that if I wanted a Kridershot (level 31) -- I would have to join a level 34 game -- that is, a game started by a level 34 player? It isn't clear from your post what the mechanics are but I'm willing to test it.


Correct
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Even if this is true, it's really not viable for torment sets anyway since you can't gamble for them.
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I see. So you have found a clever way to get lots of blood shards. And you've found a way to constrain the legendaries you can get. All by exploiting some supposed loop holes in low level games. This is certainly a lot more believable than mentioning two layered timers and a screenshot of lots of nice items which really makes it look like you're just showing off.

On the other hand, you have 6 RoRG which are super rare. Without trying any of this, how can anyone be sure it wasn't this alternative scenario:
You farmed lots and lots of rift stones (and caches) and blood shards, and after 3 weeks of work, you have collected lots of orbs from Kadala and 6 RoRG from caches. That's pretty believable too.

And the process you say takes hours. How do you really know it's working then? Maybe you've played long enough to collect all legendaries in the game.
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"Are you saying I shouldn't have left the game where I got my random Mask of Jeram? Or my Jade Harvester pants?


What does the layperson need to know, if a good item drops for you in a game (but with a crappy roll), don't leave until you have gambled all your shards with Kadala and potentially received an even better version?
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04/28/2014 10:54 PMPosted by nslay
On the other hand, you have 6 RoRG which are super rare.


It is not clear to me how one is to know that a cache is going to contain a RoRG if this is an item that only drops from a cache ... :(
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Interesting thread. There some very curious rare and low level items i have always wanted to obtain. Thnks for the advice, will try to get them now.
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04/28/2014 10:57 PMPosted by GutterBall
04/28/2014 10:54 PMPosted by nslay
On the other hand, you have 6 RoRG which are super rare.


It is not clear to me how one is to know that a cache is going to contain a RoRG if this is an item that only drops from a cache ... :(


Or it was the alternative scenario where he farms lots and lots of rift stones, caches and blood shards to amass all of those items. Of those many caches, he collected 6 RoRG. All over a time span of 3 weeks.

What he wrote this time sounds more plausible than the previous thread. It's conceivable that Blizzard overlooked these details. Why would Blizzard consider the scenario where a super powerful T6-worthy level 70 player joins a level 30 game? That's not a typical situation at all.
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Ok my only question. Why did you level 6 wizards to 70?
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04/28/2014 10:46 PMPosted by Draxanoth
Why would Blizzard do it this way vs. how it was done in Diablo 2? It sounds incredibly complicated compared to the tiered method used before.


Your miss understanding it...the tier system IS the base item level The lower the base item the lower its "tier" is.

Overall this guys post matches all my drop patterns so far Long periods of time without a leg games ending up in a high tiered items(although that item is normally a damned twohand <.<), hell all three of the set items I have, I got from a single 10 hour game.

Also before people start going (TF is only a lvl 31 base item %$%^ you're wrong OP!) you got to realize it shares a loot table with like 21 different leg weapons which means it still might seem rare simply due to how many conflicting items that can drop in its place.

Overall is a good post OP and I more then likely guess the secrets you didn't give out XD.
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Correction 5!!
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