-Please keep this thread civil. RNG threads are common, many people like to jump on the tinfoil hat bandwagon and flame, insult and impair the ability to have a meaningful discussion on an aspect endemic to D3.
-Much attention has come to my thread posted last week in the Wizard forums here, a post outlying certain elements of my strategy have also gained notoriety over the last several hours on reddit and quite possibly other places I'm not aware of.
I will begin by explaining what most of us know, followed by new information as well as some fringe theories.
What we know:
-The drop rate of legendaries is not evenly distributed; some legendaries drop more or less frequently than others.
-Some legendaries are only obtainable in torment difficulty or higher, the only legendaries that require torment difficulty have a base level requirement of 60, or 70. (e.g. Tal Rasha's base level is 60)
-Many people note that the frequency of leg drop appears equal to, or greater than the quantity dropped in torment difficulty.
-The benefit of running in higher torment difficulties is reduced by inefficiency. That is, if it takes a long time to progress in any given difficulty you are reducing your drops and gold/xp per hour because you don’t kill fast enough.
What hasn’t been considered:
-Legendaries can only drop from mobs equal to the level of the game +3. That is, a piece of Tal Rasha’s gear will never drop in a level 40 game, regardless if whether or not it is a torment level 40 game, or if there is a lvl 70 character in group or otherwise. The reason it is +3, is because the lowest level a game can be before it will drop a legendary is level 11, however the lowest base level of a legendary is 8.
To expand, Heart of Iron is a level 8 base level chest; it will drop starting when the game is level 11. In a level 11 game a Cindercoat will never drop because it is a base lvl 31 item.
-Torment items have a low chance of dropping, by playing in torment difficulty you are reducing the chances of getting a legendary because your loot table now contains items that don’t drop frequently.
-The rarity of a legendary is primarily determined by its base level requirement, in addition to smart loot. For example, items with a low base level requirement, such as St. Archew’s glove, or a Gladiator Glove, are more common than a Frostburn because the former two have a lower base level requirement. If you are playing a wizard gambling gloves, you might expect to obtain large quantities of Stone Gauntlets, but this would be untrue because Stone Gauntlets are smart looted for Strength classes.
-Some exceptions to the notion that a character cannot obtain an item exceeding its level exist. For example, a level 61 character, in a level 70 game would ordinarily obtain level 61 gear. However, that character can obtain a piece of lvl 70 gear if that gear was obtained from Kadala. This does NOT work for every piece of gear but DOES expose some flaws in the mechanics.
-The loot table is determined by toon, per game. If it were possible to play in one game indefinitely, there would be certain legendaries you would have mountains of, and certain ones that will never drop. You could open 50 A1 Cache and not get a single RRoG because RRoG is not in your table for that game.
-The quantity of bloodshards obtained in a rift is determined by difficulty, not by level of the game. A T6 level 20 game will give the same amount of bloodshards as a T6 level 70 game.
-To determine what legendary finally drops, several systems are used. The first system determines what items are in the loot table. The second determines based on your loot table what item has a chance of dropping. The third determines if the item actually drops or not. Since tables are finite, clogging your table with items that have a low chance of success on the third system decreases the amount of legendaries you see.
How to make use of this information:
-Knowing that certain items cannot drop based on difficulty setting and game level, you can seek specific items out based on their base level requirement, and if they are torment only items or not. For example, the item Moonlight Ward has a base level of 8, 8+3 is 11. In a level 11 game, the only legendary amulets that would ever drop from a mob for a wizard would be Squirt’s Nek and MLW. Since both are base level 8, both are dropped more frequently than Xepherian Amulet, for example. Knowing this you can easily hunt down vast quantities of these legendaries because you have restricted the possible drops to items under the level of your game, and in addition you have made monster killing much easier because low level mobs deal little damage, and have little health.
Now you say, “OK great, I now have 50 of item x, but they are all low levels”. At this point, you can take advantage of Kadala. Kadala’s drops are equal to the level of your toon, not the level of the game. So while a lvl 70 in a lvl 15 game could only get lvl 15 drops from mobs, if they got the same leg off Kadala, it would be level 70. Once you have determined an item is in your loot table, you have a reasonable chance of getting it off Kadala. You can take this further by eliminating certain drops from your table as well. For example, if you want a Magefist, with a base level req of 31, you would start a level 34 game. Unfortunately, Magefist competes with a couple of other level 31 gloves. In order to guarantee a magefist, you would have to play the level 34 game for an extended period of time to ensure the other gloves are not in your loot table. You can't rule out higher level gloves, but those tend to be better and are naturally rarer than lower base level items anyway. This process can take several hours but produces great results.
-This process works with all items below level 70 base requirement excluding lvl 60 torment items. In addition, while Kadala is certainly efficient, the same results can be reproduced with bounty cache. The way loot rolls in a cache is determined by the level and class the cache was obtained, however, the exact loot in a cache is not determined until it is opened.
-Knowing this information explains many of the patterns commonly witnessed. For example, it’s quite common to see a particular group member getting a high quantity of legendaries, however, almost all of them are likely bad because the bad ones have a higher chance of dropping, and that player had the unfortunate luck of spawning with a poor table. On the other hand, another group member may go many rifts without much luck because his/her loot table is filled with rarer items. Nothing is more discouraging than going an extended period without a legendary, only to get a 2 handed item, but by checking the base level of the item it’s quite often found that the item is one with a high base level, thus a rare, albeit still bad item.
This is a taste of what goes into Diablo's RNG. There's more, I know some of it, some I don't. If you think I'm full of crap that's OK, refute me constructively. This method, in addition to some extra information I don't plan on making public at this time has served me well. I have nearly every legendary worth having, and multiple of them at that. If you think you have information truly beneficial to me and would like to share information in exchange for more of what I know then send me a message on Diablofans @ TealDawn, and I'll get back to you.
Happy hunting all! http://i.imgur.com/ByzaEwk.jpg