Diablo® III

Leoric's Signet farming stories

08/30/2012 01:35 PMPosted by Mith
But when you're going from 1:50,000 to 1:10,562, that's a different story.
Except that those are not the "odds" of finding a specific item. Assuming your numbers are correct, they are still just the odds of finding any legendary item. Again, stressing that it doesn't mean 1 in every 10,562 monster kills will generate any legendary item. It simply means that the second number has a higher probability rate then the first. Which is the same as saying "I guess it can happen at some point, perhaps quicker then before because of the change in my MF gear, but only maybe...".
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When looking for a specific Item the numbers are much different because you have to factor in all the legendary items you don't want as negative hit's towards your goal. If there are 15 legendary items to choose from and you want one it would be a 1:15 chance to pick the right one out of a bag. So you have a 1:15 chance at a 1:10,562 chance of landing the item you want each time you kill a single monster. A failed chance in this case does not improve the numbers at all by elimination. So you see how insignificant the numbers start to get at that point?

Edit: Actually I got that backward. You have a 1:10,562 chance at a 1:15 chance.
Edited by ChaosLeech#1406 on 8/30/2012 2:16 PM PDT
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That's fine, too. Because if there were 15 legendaries, you'd be going from a 1:750,000 chance to a 1:158,430 chance. To say that the difference there is still statistically insignificant is silly.
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08/30/2012 02:20 PMPosted by Mith
That's fine, too. Because if there were 15 legendaries, you'd be going from a 1:750,000 chance to a 1:158,430 chance. To say that the difference there is still statistically insignificant is silly.
You are right the difference isn't statistically insignificant, but it is insignificant for the purposes of what we are doing. It's like the difference between getting stuck by Lightning once, vs. being struck by Lightning twice. Both are still very improbable but one is much less likely then the other.
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It's not all that improbable! Consider the volume of attempts. One signet-capable mob = 1 lottery ticket. Improving your odds from 1:750,000 to 1:158,430 and then buying thousands of tickets (killing thousands of mobs) actually gets you pretty decent chances.
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its so damn hard to get. rings drop like 1 in 100 and when it drops it has to be exact ilvl 17 and then the rng to make it legendary.,.. i have farmed 20 hours with getting 15+ different legendaries all from packs. still no luck on ring. help pls? maybe I shouls farm only VotA and not oasis? too less packs on oasis and a lot in vota. don't BS that its too high lvl - it can even roll ilvl4
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I just got my 15th legendary drop, from a writhing deceiver. It was Genzaniku. The thing is, I already found one not 5 minutes earlier! What are the chances of getting two of the same (though their stats aren't identical) legendaries in such a short span? Higher than finding Leoric's Signet apparently...
Edited by TheNoseKnows#1451 on 8/30/2012 3:07 PM PDT
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08/30/2012 02:50 PMPosted by Mith
It's not all that improbable! Consider the volume of attempts. One signet-capable mob = 1 lottery ticket. Improving your odds from 1:750,000 to 1:158,430 and then buying thousands of tickets (killing thousands of mobs) actually gets you pretty decent chances.

That's a false assumption. Previous results do not effect current attempts. It does not mean that your odds get better by killing thousands of mobs. Each time you kill a mob you have a 1:158,430 chance. It just means you are trying again.
Edited by ChaosLeech#1406 on 8/30/2012 3:07 PM PDT
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08/30/2012 03:04 PMPosted by TheNoseKnows
I just got my 15th legendary drop, from a writhing deceiver. It was Genzaniku. The thing is, I already found one not 5 minutes earlier! What are the chances of getting two of the same (though they stats aren't identical) legendaries in such a short span? Higher than finding Leoric's Signet apparently...


Try this one: I've found seven different legendaries. You'd think I'd have found at least one duplicate.
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08/30/2012 03:02 PMPosted by Kankuro
maybe I shouls farm only VotA and not oasis? too less packs on oasis and a lot in vota
The reason why you don't want to farm the VoA is because you can find other legendary rings as well. So once the game has determine you will get a legendary and that it will be a ring, it then has to decide which one.
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08/30/2012 03:06 PMPosted by ChaosLeech
That's a false assumption. Previous results do not effect current attempts. It does not mean that your odds get better by killing thousands of mobs. Each time you kill a mob you have a 1:158,430 chance. It just means you are trying again.


But the more you try, the more you move further along a statistical probability graph.

E.g. Flipping a coin twice doesn't give you a 100% chance for a heads. But flipping a coin 10 times gives you somewhere in the high 90%'s for at least one heads. If you're trying to hit something like 5 heads in a row, flipping a coin 1000 times or one million times doesn't guarantee it, but it puts it well within the realm of probability, or more or less what one might call certainty.
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If you believe that killing 158,430 monsters gives you a 90% chance at landing the ring, then who am I to stop you.

Are you the same Mith I argued with constantly in the Beta? ;)
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08/30/2012 03:10 PMPosted by ChaosLeech
maybe I shouls farm only VotA and not oasis? too less packs on oasis and a lot in vota
The reason why you don't want to farm the VoA is because you can find other legendary rings as well. So once the game has determine you will get a legendary and that it will be a ring, it then has to decide which one.


it doesn't decide if its manald or leoric. if its ilvl 17 it IS leoric. and ilvl is rolled before
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If you believe that killing 158,430 monsters gives you a 90% chance at landing the ring, then who am I to stop you.

Are you the same Mith I argued with constantly in the Beta? ;)


I didn't say that, but going from something like a 2% probability after many thousands of monsters to close to something like a 10% probability with capped MF+NV is huge.

And yes, very likely. I argue a lot. What did we argue about?
Edited by Mith#1762 on 8/30/2012 3:30 PM PDT
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And yes, very likely. I argue a lot. What did we argue about?
Just about everything, on the Feedback forums. :)
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pre-60 legendaries can vary in levels. Leoric can roll level 14-17 required, not sure on manalds, but one th8ing about vota is the high mob density in it and you can get 5 stacked there in about 1-2 minutes every time (as monk atleast)

personally been doing VOTA -> sewer -> oasis path wp and clearing ruined cistern.


it doesn't decide if its manald or leoric. if its ilvl 17 it IS leoric. and ilvl is rolled before

[/quote]

iLevel is rolled after rarity roll.

Rarity rolls
then checks table as to what items are available
decides item and level dependant on rarity
then rolls stats dependant on item type, rarity and ilevel.
Edited by Bacon#1205 on 8/30/2012 3:35 PM PDT
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iLevel is rolled after rarity roll.

Rarity rolls
then checks table as to what items are available
decides item and level dependant on rarity
then rolls stats dependant on item type, rarity and ilevel.


source? pretty sure its Type -> Tier -> Rarity
Edited by Kankuro#2338 on 8/30/2012 3:53 PM PDT
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iLevel is rolled after rarity roll.

Rarity rolls
then checks table as to what items are available
decides item and level dependant on rarity
then rolls stats dependant on item type, rarity and ilevel.


source? pretty sure its Type -> Tier -> Rarity


Unfortunately I don't think we have a source for this. t.t
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iLevel is rolled after rarity roll.

Rarity rolls
then checks table as to what items are available
decides item and level dependant on rarity
then rolls stats dependant on item type, rarity and ilevel.


source? pretty sure its Type -> Tier -> Rarity


there isn't a source, but its apparent in non-inferno legendaries as they can roll a range of ilevels. Also, not every slot has a legendary available (hence level 5 legendary belt dropping in end of act 2, got one in vota this morning)
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On a continued note, something is definitely way screwy with low level loot/mf. After getting 5-stack NV with 334% total MF, for example, I did a run killing 14 packs (plus Maghda) and not once (on said packs) did I get a single rare that wasn't one of the NV guaranteed ones.

This is hardly ever, if ever, the case when I'm doing A1 Inferno runs with next to nothing for MF.

WTB confirmed loot formulas/mechanics from Blizzard.
Edited by Mith#1762 on 8/30/2012 5:04 PM PDT
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