Diablo® III

XFire Hours Played Per Day since 5/15/2012

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This graph shows XFire's complete statistics for Diablo 3 since release day May 15th, 2012. It shows the number of hours played per day by XFire users versus the number of days since release.

http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/9122/d3hoursplayedmay16toaug.png

I originally wanted to add some objective analysis to this post, so I agonized for a couple of hours trying to figure out how to word it without coming off as a hater or a fanboy, or worse. Eventually I realized that there was just no way to do it. Not in this forum anyway. People are going to interpret this post and this data through their own eyes and with their own brains, there's nothing that I can do to force people to see the data objectively without emotions or preconceptions.

"So, screw it!", I said to myself emotionally. I'm not going to waste my time. I'll just post it and that'll be that. I went through all the trouble of collecting the data, and the last thing I want to do is keep it to myself. I'll share it for whatever it's worth, even if some people think that it's worthless. The only thing that would be worse than that is if someone thinks that this data is a paragon of truth. The truth, as usual, is probably somewhere in between.

Good night.
The information that is always missing from these posts are the number of people who use XFire and play Diablo 3 versus those who just play Diablo 3. Also, you have to consider that generalizing this data as a cross section implies XFire users make up the same swath of super casual up to super hardcore users (at least percentage wise).

I am sure there has been a drop off from launch. Happens with every game. Probably more then expected with D3 too. But the scale implied by XFire is only valid for XFire users until the above data is obtained.
Posts: 785
It's well established that Xfire doesn't account for 100% of the playerpopulation.

It's also safe to extrapolate that even if it represents ONE percent of the global population... And that ONE percent ends up with 99/100 leaving for greener pastures, then that figure can be used to predict a trend.

.

So let me word it again for people. It doesn't matter how many people use Xfire. What does matter is out of how many people did use it for diablo 3, what are they playing now.

And if anyone out there think this game hasn't suffered massive attrition and exodus after exodus, then they are simply diluted. Out of everyone on my friends list, all of my real life friends, my coworkers, and people I have been gaming with for over a decade... Not a single person is playing diablo 3 today. A couple out of a very large number of people I directly know came back to try 1.04 and subsequently quit permanently.
Posts: 631
08/29/2012 10:08 PMPosted by TerribleAim
The information that is always missing from these posts are the number of people who use XFire and play Diablo 3 versus those who just play Diablo 3. Also, you have to consider that generalizing this data as a cross section implies XFire users make up the same swath of super casual up to super hardcore users (at least percentage wise).
It does not matter what eprcent of players of D3 use xFire. If you have 80k players using xFire and they are playing 180k hours in a day and all of a suddend 3 months later there are 6k players playing 28k hours a day makes a pretty good assessment on how many players have quit this game.

It is just like during election years. Polls only go out and poll 1000 people out of lets say 200million legal voters. Yet it seems that these polls are usually pretty accurate. Would you not say the same thing?

So you have xFire users giving out their info on the games they play each day and how many hours. 80k users playing on May 28th. Now on Aug 28th 6.7k players and 28k hours. I am sorry but that is a huge drop off. That would be like 75% of voters who are voting for Obama changing their pick from Obama to Romney in the next 3 months.
Posts: 785
08/29/2012 10:41 PMPosted by Kilith
The information that is always missing from these posts are the number of people who use XFire and play Diablo 3 versus those who just play Diablo 3. Also, you have to consider that generalizing this data as a cross section implies XFire users make up the same swath of super casual up to super hardcore users (at least percentage wise).
It does not matter what eprcent of players of D3 use xFire. If you have 80k players using xFire and they are playing 180k hours in a day and all of a suddend 3 months later there are 6k players playing 28k hours a day makes a pretty good assessment on how many players have quit this game.

It is just like during election years. Polls only go out and poll 1000 people out of lets say 200million legal voters. Yet it seems that these polls are usually pretty accurate. Would you not say the same thing?

So you have xFire users giving out their info on the games they play each day and how many hours. 80k users playing on May 28th. Now on Aug 28th 6.7k players and 28k hours. I am sorry but that is a huge drop off. That would be like 75% of voters who are voting for Obama changing their pick from Obama to Romney in the next 3 months.


Yup. But it's like stockholm syndrome. No matter how logical and accurate and true it is, some of these people don't want to believe it. They are captives to this game. They have already spent their parents money on the RMAH and have commited hours upon hours into it. They literally can't see it, despite what we say or how we say it.
Posts: 376
what is xfire?
It's well established that Xfire doesn't account for 100% of the player population.

no.
Posts: 2,731
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08/29/2012 10:41 PMPosted by Kilith
It is just like during election years. Polls only go out and poll 1000 people out of lets say 200million legal voters. Yet it seems that these polls are usually pretty accurate. Would you not say the same thing?


There's a critical difference between poll data and Xfire data. Pollsters go out of their way to get an unbiased sample. One of Gallup's early competitors infamously predicted that Landon would defeat Roosevelt in 1936 due to hidden bias in the sample, and rapidly went out of business as a result. (Roosevelt crushed Landon about as thoroughly as is possible in a presidential election; we're talking Reagan-Mondale here.)

There isn't any good reason to believe that the Xfire population is representative of the gaming community generally, so no one that is educated about this sort of thing trusts the numbers. We can all agree that there's been a major drop-off in activity since the launch. But trying to generalize Xfire's data to the general population and make a claim about how large the drop-off has been is both unwarranted and unwise.
Regardless of the exact magnitude of the dropoff, it's safe to conclude that the number of players on D3 has declined so sharply that Blizzard has openly apologized for their mistakes and have gone to great lengths to fix this game, which is sadly still incredibly awful.

Still, I feel that a lower boundary of 75% of players (myself included, in fact I quit with 1.0.4) who have quit D3 since launch is more than sufficient, and this number is already shockingly high for a game which was supposed to last for years.

Let this be a lesson to Blizzard: Make sure you get the game RIGHT, or at least MOSTLY RIGHT, ON RELEASE! It's much harder to woo back players after such a horrible first 3 months than to get the release well executed and keep a large percentage of the playerbase.
100 Orc Warrior
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Posts: 39
08/29/2012 10:41 PMPosted by Kilith
It is just like during election years. Polls only go out and poll 1000 people out of lets say 200million legal voters. Yet it seems that these polls are usually pretty accurate. Would you not say the same thing?


Actually no. Polls are conducted from a random sampling of the population area, or registered voters, or likely voters depending on how the poll is structured. (You can get into things like you have to have a phone to be polled or some polling companies only call land lines, but it's splitting hairs.)

Xfire is a service which requires the individual to go to them. Normally because the gamer has some interest in streaming or whatever.

The analogy doesn't make sense unless polls were conducted by setting up a booth at the mall and when people came and bought something they would ask them who they were going to vote for.

That being said the data provided in the op's chart is still useful just call a spade a spade. If you want to infer that chart suggests a large drop in the player base then that's fine but it's an opinion, although I would agree with you.

Just don't go off saying that this proves x or y when all it proves is what it shows, xfire usage as related to release date. All other conclusions that you apply beyond that are speculative, even if pretty much obvious (like a crap load of people peace'd out cause the game is broken).
Lie, damned lies and statistics. Why does this keep coming up?

One sample size from a single biased and unreliable source is not enough data to formulate a conclusion.

Tons of people don't even use XFire. The reasons are because they either don't know what it is or they know exactly what it is.
Lie, damned lies and statistics. Why does this keep coming up?

One sample size from a single biased and unreliable source is not enough data to formulate a conclusion.

Tons of people don't even use XFire. The reasons are because they either don't know what it is or they know exactly what it is.


Translation: I am a Blizz Fanboy who believes that millions of players still play this !@#$ty %^- game on a regular basis. I put my tinfoil hat on and refuse to acknowledge the general trend that this graph with a sufficiently large sample with no obvious bias shows!

If ANYTHING, this graph is biased in Blizzard's favor and does not factor in a lot of casual players who don't use Xfire. They probably bought the game, played through normal difficulty, and decided that they were done with the game right then and there.
Edited by Stiphler#1456 on 8/29/2012 11:32 PM PDT
Posts: 373
I would challenge anyone who refutes these statistics to show us a graph or stats that prove otherwise.

Obviously, Blizzard is the only one that can provide reliable data (in particular that the fanboys would believe) and you can rest assured that if they had something positive to tout they would be doing it like they did the first 3 years of WoW. The only thing theyve been able to boast, to date, is their first weeks sales.

The game has failed. The only people still playing it are either:

1) New and havent become tired / disenchanted with it, or...
2) They suffer from Stockholm Syndrone, or...
3) They just have horribly low standards.

Keep playing it all you want but numbers dont lie.
I would challenge anyone who refutes these statistics to show us a graph or stats that prove otherwise.

Obviously, Blizzard is the only one that can provide reliable data (in particular that the fanboys would believe) and you can rest assured that if they had something positive to tout they would be doing it like they did the first 3 years of WoW. The only thing theyve been able to boast, to date, is their first weeks sales.

The game has failed. The only people still playing it are either:

1) New and havent become tired / disenchanted with it, or...
2) They suffer from Stockholm Syndrone, or...
3) They just have horribly low standards.

Keep playing it all you want but numbers dont lie.


And I challenge you to actually beat inferno!
Posts: 631
08/29/2012 11:10 PMPosted by MartinAlvito
There isn't any good reason to believe that the Xfire population is representative of the gaming community generally, so no one that is educated about this sort of thing trusts the numbers.
huh? Can you please go back and reread what you just said here?
All xFire users do is the one thing you just said they do not represent. All they do is PLAY GAMES. Anyone that is educated in any type of system like this would see that losing over 80% of xFire users is not a good thing. It is not like these users just logged into Diablo 3 and that is the only game they have ever played. I mean xFire is made up of the GAMING community. If these players do not like a game, they will no longer log into it.

We went from a sample size of 80k players in May. We now have a sample size of 6.7k players. Players were playing 180k hours in May they are now playing 28k hours. So honestly how do you even justify that these numbers mean nothing what so ever? I can look at my friends list and see the same thing. 60 players on my friends list and 7 logged in to battle.net, 4 of them on Diablo 3. Rest are on WoW. So out of 60 players on my friends list 4 players still play Diablo 3. That means over 90% of my friends list no longer plays Diablo 3.

I still play D3 every single day but I am not going to be naive and blind to the numbers. The AH shows it. You can not sell hardly anything anymore. NOT EVEN if you price it at 50k gold. It did just this to prove a point that nothing is selling on the AH. a 1.2k weapon which would be an upgrade to a lot of DH's and I could not even sell it for 50k.

I just do not understand why people blow these numbers off like they mean nothing. They show a lot and not only by the numbers on xFire but they also reflect the same trend of my friends list! Stop being in denial.
Lie, damned lies and statistics. Why does this keep coming up?

One sample size from a single biased and unreliable source is not enough data to formulate a conclusion.

Tons of people don't even use XFire. The reasons are because they either don't know what it is or they know exactly what it is.


Translation: I am a Blizz Fanboy who believes that millions of players still play this !@#$ty %^- game on a regular basis. I put my tinfoil hat on and refuse to acknowledge the general trend that this graph with a sufficiently large sample with no obvious bias shows!

If ANYTHING, this graph is biased in Blizzard's favor and does not factor in a lot of casual players who don't use Xfire. They probably bought the game, played through normal difficulty, and decided that they were done with the game right then and there.


Lol.

First of all I'm not going to touch that first paragraph. Read my post history then take your own tinfoil hat off. I don't think millions of people are playing D3 and I don't think it's going to last long because it is a !@#$ty game. I just don't jump on every faulty logic bandwagon that comes around preaching bull%^-*.

Secondly the whole "XFire predicts so and so game death" is faulty because it extrapolates a conclusion that cannot be determined by the given data. All the statistics show is how many people have installed and consistently run XFire while playing Diablo 3.

Maybe they deleted XFire because it's a terrible program? Maybe they simply stopped running it while playing Diablo 3 because there are already enough lag issues? Or maybe they did simply quit playing Diablo 3. The point is that these are all assumptions, and only a very few of many we could make based on the data given.
Posts: 373
08/29/2012 11:44 PMPosted by Con
And I challenge you to actually beat inferno!


I bet you feel important now that they added the profile feature. Not sure how it pertains to the topic. Typical though..
08/29/2012 11:49 PMPosted by Agrumh
And I challenge you to actually beat inferno!


I bet you feel important now that they added the profile feature. Not sure how it pertains to the topic. Typical though..


And your post belittling anyone who plays and enjoys the game was relevant how? Oh I get it you hate the game or at the very least don't like so everyone who disagrees with you must have horribly low standards. If you think this game is that bad you need to play more games because there is some real bad stuff out there. D3 is a decent game with potential to get better, if it does or not remains to be seen. But writing it off and anyone playing it is not very logical.
Posts: 631
08/29/2012 11:49 PMPosted by Agrumh
And I challenge you to actually beat inferno!


I bet you feel important now that they added the profile feature. Not sure how it pertains to the topic. Typical though..
I have to honestly say... Who the hell cares if you beat inferno diablo? What does it prove? I farm act 3 with ease and I have not even bothered to play Act 4. Why? What is the point? Farming Act 3 is the way to go. I see no reason to even work on Act 4. Yes I have killed Amso. My run is as easy as this:
■ The Keep Depths Level 3 and run it backwards to Bastion's Keep Stronghold
■ Arreat Crater Level 1
■ Arreat Crater Level 2
■ The Core of Arreat and finish the run by killing off Asmo.

I do not see my point of wasting my time to play Act4 when I have the best Act on farm.
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