Diablo® III

Loot Servers Finale

Long Intro:
When I first started this little experiment, it was meant as a ways to disprove the loot server theory that has been plaguing the community and stop the madness of server hunting so people could have a good time rather than put their hopes and dreams on wild theories. The loot server theory can only have gained acceptance by the community as it was the only simple explanation for the extreme amount of legends people get at times from a single run, only to have this "luck" trickle down to almost nothing. And this theory even evolved into something as silly as "even number servers give the best loot" and "odd number servers suck", etc. My take on the legend server looting was that it was all bull-feces and as such I conducted this little experiment with the help of the d3 community to help me in removing this plague. Most of you did exactly what I asked for and especially the people who made multiple reports or posted lots of reports at once, you guys did an awesome job. We will proceed forth under the following definition of what a loot server is:
Loot servers are servers which have a better chance of getting legends

Experiment and conditions:
http://us.battle.net/d3/en/forum/topic/6794831316
Some didn't read the conditions I specified, I got quite a few reports that I obviously couldn't use and had to axe out of the tally, that went along the lines of
"I farmed 70-80 IP's (72,73,74,75) for a week and found 9 legends"

Key Point:
I followed through with this experiment under the following logics because it was easy and because I was so certain that it would be easy to prove that blizzard would never ever do something like loot servers.
-Presence of a significant statistic doesn't mean the theory is likely true
-Absence of a significant statistic likely means that the theory is untrue

Result:
http://www.mediafire.com/?h3737rqpw3qqono

Thoughts:
As much as I hate to admit it, the presence of a max 82% variation in loot server range represents a significant statistic. Absolutely not enough to say in any universe that loot servers are real, as the cause could be soooo many things (eg. player server distribution). However b/c it's there, nothing can be concluded. You can blame me for this, but I believe I did the best I could with what data I thought I could get.

Conclusion:
Not enough data :b as there was a significant statistic and
-Presence of a significant statistic doesn't mean the theory is likely true
And I put my eggs in the basket
-Absence of a significant statistic likely means that the theory is untrue

And yes I see the bell curve, you nerds don't have to start pointing out to me "omg a bell curve, loot servers are realz". That is probably a coincidence, or is picked up from something else entirely (like the server player distribution thing i was talking about). Basically, do whatever you want with this, I personally will be just playing whatever servers come up (as always). I'm sorry I wasn't able to verify anything within reason, guess we just wait for a blue to end the madness. One thing I can tell you after all this with near certainty though, the loot system is NOT pure RNG. I still think the loot drops are mainly RNG with something like a lootstat multiplier that increases over time with no finds and resets after a find (like MF within MF). That's it lol

PS: don't 4get to stick, whatever that means
And yes I coulda done a more refined job but I think its good enough, so I'm a go piss in ghom's eye then sleep
Edited by Abdz#6619 on 10/13/2012 6:05 AM PDT
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People can think what they want or read into this as they like; however your experiment' sample statistic was biased as well.

I personally don't believe in loot severs. In fact, I did a full act 3 run on a 78 server and got 0 legendaries. Full as in complete map exploration with every destructible + clickable item mound opened.
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however your experiment' sample statistic was biased as well.

how so?
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10/13/2012 05:52 AMPosted by Abdz
I still think the loot drops are mainly RNG with something like a lootstat multiplier that increases over time with no finds and resets after a find (like MF within MF).

Maybe its like sharpshooter lol. I haven't had any legendaries drop for maybe 30 full act 3 runs. Then all of a sudden 4 dropped close to each other in one run (act3). 1 from Crydea, 2 in battlefields, 1 caverns of ice. IK gloves, strongarms, blade of warlord and bkt weding ring. Not great drops but stil 4 legendaries.
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I had 3 legends drop in the same game today, server number? 56

I hope it's not true, but until Blizz confirms it I'll just make sure I'm in an even number under 100 server to farm, just in case.
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Hard to believe that anyone fell for this loot server stuff. BTW there is a epic loot server on wow called area 52. Has a lot of strange epics that fall form the sky.
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Posts: 5,435
how does one even know what servers they are on anyway?? this loot server thing is very much a tinfoil hat stuff
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So your idea of "statistics" is taking people on the internet for their word.

Good joke.
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I had 3 legends drop in the same game today, server number? 56

I hope it's not true, but until Blizz confirms it I'll just make sure I'm in an even number under 100 server to farm, just in case.


i know its tempting to fall into this trap by trying to find a reason for your fluctuating and irregular luck, but i suggest you do the same thing I do and just play whatever server you connect to, it is still incredibly unlikely high loot servers are real, I'm sure a blue will verify this shortly, last thing bliz wants is for this to get more out of hand than it already is and put unnecessary stress on specific servers.
Edited by Abdz#6619 on 10/14/2012 8:14 AM PDT
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D3 obviously uses a time based RNG. You can tell because of all the kill enemies at same time = same drops.

Time based RNGs are easy to manipulate. Given that, I think it's much more likely Blizzard would choose something else easily manipulated (say, server connection) to affect the loot you get.
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no terence... just no
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Question:

Did you normalize the results according to total kills on each IP? Having a hard time understanding the PDF because the axes are labeled and there's not a lot of explanation.
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Question:

Did you normalize the results according to total kills on each IP? Having a hard time understanding the PDF because the axes are labeled and there's not a lot of explanation.


there is a link to the thread where the reports were posted in the OP
x = server#, y = frequency of legends
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It appears the answer is no, then. Here's my concern.

It is possible that some people in that thread specifically targeted the "good" servers
That would mean that extra time was spent farming "good" servers
So more total drops came from "good" servers, which would produce more legendaries from those servers even if the drop percentage was exactly the same

It doesn't do us any good to say "we got 50 legendaries from server x and only 2 from server y" without knowing how much farming was done in x and y. Does that make sense?
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You need to re read the OP's of both threads, I've already covered all that.
Test thread OP asked for ppl who don't farm specific servers and in the OP of this thread I said I did my best to ignore the reports of those who obviously didn't read the condition to make a report. It was easy to figure out who didn't read what I was asking for as they didn't provide their reports in the form (or similar) I requested. The conditions made are solid, the logics are solid, the only concern would be that this was done only once. In my mind, this has been very successful
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People can think what they want or read into this as they like; however your experiment' sample statistic was biased as well.

I personally don't believe in loot severs. In fact, I did a full act 3 run on a 78 server and got 0 legendaries. Full as in complete map exploration with every destructible + clickable item mound opened.
You have no MF and low paragon, please shut up.
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You need to re read the OP's of both threads, I've already covered all that.
Test thread OP asked for ppl who don't farm specific servers and in the OP of this thread I said I did my best to ignore the reports of those who obviously didn't read the condition to make a report. It was easy to figure out who didn't read what I was asking for as they didn't provide their reports in the form (or similar) I requested. The conditions made are solid, the logics are solid, the only concern would be that this was done only once. In my mind, this has been very successful


Do you know what percentage of the time someone connects to those servers or are you assuming it's evenly distributed?
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Conclusion:
Not enough data :b as there was a significant statistic and
-Presence of a significant statistic doesn't mean the theory is likely true
And I put my eggs in the basket
-Absence of a significant statistic likely means that the theory is untrue
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