Diablo® III

15 legendaries in 3 hours = CONTROLLED DROPS

The drops are controlled... by the mafia... Jay Wilson is actually a long time mafia enforcer...
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Vae, you can talk to the devs ya? Ask them please and put an end to this, everyone knows it's not truly random..... A simple yes or no will suffice, is it "/roll 1-2500" or not, I guarantee they say no...
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tl;dr - finding 15 legendaries in 3 hours is mathematically VERY weird under a truly random drop system

Prob of finding =15 legendaries = 0.011000000000000001% (11 instances)

If you assume OP would get 3 legendaries on average during the session, finding 15 is nearly impossible, and even if you assume 5 legendaries on average per session, the chance of getting 15 or more is less than 1 in 6000.


i'm going to assume you don't work with probabilities or statistics in your job, or haven't really studied it that much. 1 in 6000 is perfectly reasonable and still expect it to happen quite frequently over the entire player base. it's absolutely nowhere near impossible.

when someone wins the lottery, do you sit and say "something's fishy. the odds are so low it must be rigged! nobody can win the lottery!"? no? why not? the odds to win the lottery are far smaller. for drawing 51 balls, the odds are somewhere around 18,000,000 to 1. if there's a powerball not drawn from the pool of 51 balls, the odds can skyrocket depending on how large that secondary pool is. people don't win the lottery every day, of course, but someone eventually wins.

the thing is, to win the lottery or get 15 legendaries for *an individual* is tough. if there were only one person playing diablo 3, i would say that there's a fat chance that this legitimately happened in a random system. there are far, far more people playing than just one, though, and for a very large group repeatedly doing the same thing over and over again, it's very easy for *someone* to "win the lottery."
Edited by noumuon#1400 on 10/16/2012 12:36 PM PDT
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As others in this thread have mentioned, having a “hot streak” of good drops, or by contrast, a streak of poor drops can happen because the probability of each roll is not tied to the previous one. Ketchup offered a good example of this:

Because of this, you are not guaranteed any set number of Legendaries, set items, or rares within a certain period of time. Bear in mind that MF affects the quality of drops you’ll see, but not necessarily the number of drops you get from a particular kill (you can find out more about Magic Find [url="http://us.battle.net/d3/en/game/guide/items/equipment#magic-find"]here[/url]). Thus having high MF and being able to quickly and effectively clear challenging monsters will certainly aide your cause, but at the end of the day, the “luck” players have can vary widely.


The following is a quote from the link provided by blue:

For example, if a monster has a 4% chance to drop a 6-affix rare item and you have +50% magic find, it now has a 6% chance to drop that item.

Item quality is checked in the following order:

Legendary
6-affix rare
5-affix rare
4-affix rare
2-affix rare
1-affix rare
magic item
Using the above example, when your roll ‘misses’ a higher-level item quality, the item generator proceeds to the next lowest item quality in the chain (in this case, checking to see if you got a 6-affix rare, then checking for a 5-affix rare, and so on). Your magic find bonus applies to each roll. If the same monster has a 10% chance to drop a 5-affix rare item and you have 50% magic find, you now have a 15% chance to get a 5-affix rare item.


This system is either incorrect, or incompletely explained. Because if the range of all the possible items a character with 0 mf can get are then multiplied by 1.5 with 50 mf, you now have a total 150%, which is mathematically incorrect. Either there is some sort of system that drops off the lower tier affix rolls and just increases the rate of higher tier items (as alot of people have speculated) or the problem most people are seeing with bad drops is related to a very basic problem with bad math.

Where T is total, you cannot have 1.5 x T = T, that doesn't work.

Also, your "luck" as you put it, is actually not luck at all. All random numbers generated by a computer have a seed, or a base number they work from, usually the internal clock of the computer. Computers do not understand chaos, therefore there is no actual random within a computer's limitations. And anyone who knows what the seed is, is capable of manipulating what you like to call "luck" in their favor.

You're not a computer guy Vaeflare, you should probably stick to the thread about the Diablo Movie.
Edited by Dalamarius#1244 on 10/16/2012 12:48 PM PDT
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the REAL question should be why the hell would blizz WANT to stealth increase drop rates? Can you think of any answer as to how that would benefit them as a company?


LOL this is a VERY simple answer. By "stealth" increasing drop rate, they make customers (you) happy.

My friend and I have been farming act 3 for about 2 weeks. I actually bought the game for him because I am tired of soloing and having nobody to chat with on Teamspeak.

By the 3rd week, he is already coming up excuses of "oh, I am tired..." "oh, who cares about farming when you can't get anything good". He ended up purchasing gold service twice like me and upgraded most of his stuff.

Yeah, the point is most "causal players" don't like it when they are "mostly" on the unlucky side.

This whole "Diablo Farming" is like gambling. And we all know Gambling isn't based on "pure luck". If you think this game is 100% based on "luck", then you are dead wrong. The "house" definitely has some control over YOUR LUCK.

The "house" can definitely "entice" you with a few winnings and then bang, your streak of "bad luck" comes to control the "market" (AH) so it doesn't over-flow with awesome legendary items.

Do you know what happens if a customer is "too lucky" in a casino and wins too much? The 'house" interferes! The "house" will find another card dealer (because shoveling cards is not all random!!!) or find excuses to change game or slow down the winning. This means it's never based on "pure luck". The "house" and this game "system" does have some control over your winnings/losings.

What's a better way to keep "farmers" in this game than to increase the drop rate every once a while so they think it's "worth doing it"?

As my previous post has explained, a "good" game never lets "Luck" determine your fate because unlucky customers will always be unhappy. They gotta find a way to "break" that unlucky streak = Streak Breaker. After certain # of bad rolls (non-legendary), the game will force the monster to drop one. The # needs to be tested and calculated but you can't let LUCK determine the fate of your game. A lot of people are tired of farming because they are not getting good drops.
Edited by Jibikao#1131 on 10/16/2012 12:58 PM PDT
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"So I play around 2 hours a day in the morning with my boyfriend.
We average around 1 legendary per 3 hours of joint play.

Today we played for 2 hours and got 9 legendaries. Decided to keep going and got 6 more in the 3rd hour."

I call bs.

/troll_thread
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There's a 1/52 chance of pulling an ace of spades from the top of a card deck. Just because you have 52 card decks doesn't mean...


Incorrect. Day one probability would edumakate you that the chance of any event which you think could occur, is 50/50. Either it does or it doesn't. Even if you think the deck in front of you is not randomized or shuffled, the chance remains yes or no, and there is no other possible outcome.
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10/16/2012 12:49 PMPosted by OrcaOrcinus
There's a 1/52 chance of pulling an ace of spades from the top of a card deck. Just because you have 52 card decks doesn't mean...


Incorrect. Day one probability would edumakate you that the chance of any event which you think could occur, is 50/50. Either it does or it doesn't. Even if you think the deck in front of you is not randomized or shuffled, the chance remains yes or no, and there is no other possible outcome.


You're wrong. The possible outcomes are yes or no, the chance is not a simple number, it is calculated based on different variables. Not sure how much education you received, but it looks like you quit going to class after day 1.
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OP has amazing deduction skills.
I'm always surprised at how many people in this community are crazy.
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This system is either incorrect, or incompletely explained. Because if the range of all the possible items a character with 0 mf can get are then multiplied by 1.5 with 50 mf, you now have a total 150%, which is mathematically incorrect. Either there is some sort of system that drops off the lower tier affix rolls and just increases the rate of higher tier items (as alot of people have speculated) or the problem most people are seeing with bad drops is related to a very basic problem with bad math.

Where T is total, you cannot have 1.5 x T = T, that doesn't work.


no. you just don't understand what they're saying. there's a higher than 100% chance if you sum all the chance for a specific affix on regarding each individual roll, but there's still only a 100% chance for something to drop, as the rolls are done sequentially. this is why it states that the item quality is checked in that specific order. the chance for something to drop is 100%, but each probability for each type will sum to over 100%.

i'll explain in a simplified manner. say there are just legendaries, yellows, blues and whites, and some made up drop rates. legendaries have a 1% drop rate. so when an item drops, it first rolls a number between 1 and 100. if that number is 1, a legendary will drop. if that number is 2-100, then it will roll for a yellow. say yellows have a 10% drop rate. it rolls a number between 1 and 100, and if that number is from 1-10, a yellow will drop. if not, then it will roll for a blue. blues, lets say, have a 50% drop rate. again, rolls a number 1-100 and if that number is 1-50, then a blue drops. if not, it finally rolls for a white, but since something has to drop, whites will have a 100% drop rate, and a white drops automatically.

as you can see, this adds up to more than 100%, but that's fine. though whites have a 100% drop rate, the chance to actually get a white to drop is only 44.55%. the chance to get a blue to drop is also 44.55%. the chance to get a yellow is 9.9%, and the chance to get a legendary is simply 1%. these numbers add up to 100% percent.

so let's look at mf. say you have 100 MF. so you double your chance per roll. now legendaries have a 2% chance. yellows have a 20% chance. blues have a 100% chance. so the server is going to roll for a drop. now it rolls 1-100 again for a legendary, but since the chance is doubled, if it rolls a 1 or 2, then a legendary will drop. if not, it will go for a yellow. now for a yellow it rolls, and if it gets a number in the 1-20 range, it drops a yellow. if not, since blues are now 100% chance to drop, it will drop a blue.

again, this adds up to more than 100% individually, and again, if you look at the actualy chance to get a drop. legendaries have a 2% chance, yellows have a 19.6% chance, and blues have a 78.4% chance. again, these add up to 100% chance that something drops.

the interesting part is that 100 MF only doubles your chances for legendaries. due to sequential rolling, each subsequent probability for something to drop is less than double.

TL;DR you understood it wrong.
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the REAL question should be why the hell would blizz WANT to stealth increase drop rates? Can you think of any answer as to how that would benefit them as a company?


LOL this is a VERY simple answer. By "stealth" increasing drop rate, they make customers (you) happy.

My friend and I have been farming act 3 for about 2 weeks. I actually bought the game for him because I am tired of soloing and having nobody to chat with on Teamspeak.

By the 3rd week, he is already coming up excuses of "oh, I am tired..." "oh, who cares about farming when you can't get anything good". He ended up purchasing gold service twice like me and upgraded most of his stuff.

Yeah, the point is most "causal players" don't like it when they are "mostly" on the unlucky side.

This whole "Diablo Farming" is like gambling. And we all know Gambling isn't based on "pure luck". If you think this game is 100% based on "luck", then you are dead wrong. The "house" definitely has some control over YOUR LUCK.

The "house" can definitely "entice" you with a few winnings and then bang, your streak of "bad luck" comes to control the "market" (AH) so it doesn't over-flow with awesome legendary items.

Do you know what happens if a customer is "too lucky" in a casino and wins too much? The 'house" interferes! He "house" will find another card dealer or find excuses to change game or slow down the winning. This means it's never based on "pure luck". The "house" and this game "system" does have some control over your winnings/losings.

What's a better way to keep "farmers" in this game than to increase the drop rate every once a while so they think it's "worth doing it"?

As my previous post has explained, a "good" game never lets "Luck" determine your fate because unlucky customers will always be unhappy. They gotta find a way to "break" that unlucky streak = Streak Breaker. After certain # of bad rolls (non-legendary), the game will force the monster to drop one. The # needs to be tested and calculated but you can't let LUCK determine the fate of your game. A lot of people are tired of farming because they are not getting good drops.


So true.. anyone who doesn't realize the drops aren't all that dependent on LUCK either sucks at farming hence sucks at the game.. or just havent played long enough.
If the game didnt involve REAL MONEY blizzard would just let LUCK decide, but when Real Money is involve LUCK can lose the company Millions of dollars monthly.. Blizzard's not as dumb as you think.. they just got rid of the Room full of chinese testers, but the brilliant greedy white mens are still there.
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So true.. anyone who doesn't realize the drops aren't all that dependent on LUCK either sucks at farming hence sucks at the game.. or just havent played long enough.
If the game didnt involve REAL MONEY blizzard would just let LUCK decide, but when Real Money is involve LUCK can lose the company Millions of dollars monthly.. Blizzard's not as dumb as you think.. they just got rid of the Room full of chinese testers, but the brilliant greedy white mens are still there.


That's because most players here are young and don't own their businesses. I am an owner myself and I know if I run a multi-million dollar business, I want to have CONTROL over it.

Stop thinking everything is all random.. all based on YOUR LUCK. It's an illusion. Kids can keep thinking that way.

Element of Luck is definitely there but pure random? Hell no.
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10/16/2012 01:02 PMPosted by noumuon
TL;DR you understood it wrong.


Adding MF cannot increase the droprate of all item types. If it does, then you get into imaginary %'s over 100.

I do understand your math, which is why i said what they say is either wrong, or incomplete.

What you said at the end of your post is basically what you missed in mine. Yes, the highest tiers of items see a more relatively significant increase in your explanation. However without dropping off chances of the lower tier items you're not explaining how you get from 150% to 100%.

Even if I humor you and agree with what you're saying, it doesn't change the fact that it's not said on their page, and that their explanation is incomplete or incorrect.
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As others in this thread have mentioned, having a “hot streak” of good drops, or by contrast, a streak of poor drops can happen because the probability of each roll is not tied to the previous one. Ketchup offered a good example of this:

Do you believe flipping a coin 100 times will yield exactly 50 heads and 50 tails? maybe a coin might give you close 50/50. when you include more things in the calculations, it gets ugly from there. probabilities do not remember what you rolled before. only at the instant when it rolls.


Because of this, you are not guaranteed any set number of Legendaries, set items, or rares within a certain period of time. Bear in mind that MF affects the quality of drops you’ll see, but not necessarily the number of drops you get from a particular kill (you can find out more about Magic Find [url="http://us.battle.net/d3/en/game/guide/items/equipment#magic-find"]here[/url]). Thus having high MF and being able to quickly and effectively clear challenging monsters will certainly aide your cause, but at the end of the day, the “luck” players have can vary widely.


There is no such thing as luck when it comes to computers. There will always be a pattern no matter what!
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Pay jay wilson 400bucks he will increase your drop rate
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I'm a programmer and have written random number generators and have seen the rng's from D1 and D2.
They are nowhere near random. If you start from the same seed they will produce the exact same sequence of numbers. There is no LUCK.

I have something around 700 hrs of play and have found 2 legends.

Something is definitely not working right.
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I found 2 legendaries the whole time playing d3 until the other day where I found 3?!?
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http://i.imgur.com/fs1YB.jpg

Had to put this up.
150hrs of D3 - 0 set or Legend (as I posted earlier)

20mins of D2 - set item (not great but still it's a set item)

Hmmm......
Edited by HemiGeo#1705 on 10/16/2012 1:23 PM PDT
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