Diablo® III

15 legendaries in 3 hours = CONTROLLED DROPS

I'm lucky if I even find 1 legendary on a day and I have over 200 MF...
Getting sick of my friends linking legendary items they found every hour or so while I get nothing at all and they have less MF then me..
:(

Edit: Well that's my luck with all games that have any loot in them, I just play the games and see my friends getting good items while I have to grind 10 times more then them to get the same things if even that. I'm starting to think games with loot in them is not made for me at all.
Edited by Chnum#2652 on 11/6/2012 5:09 PM PST
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10/15/2012 03:14 PMPosted by pixelite
I was hypothesizing from personal experience that drop rates are modified in the days before or after patch. This may be intentional, or the result of some other reset/function. However, based on the below, there is no possible way this is the result of RNG. My sample size, while seemingly small, with 2 individuals, is actually quite large. It consists of ~500 monsters killed an hour, over 2 hours daily, over 120 days, for 2 separate independent accounts. Any efforts to refute the math below will only solidify my claim, as I was exceptionally lenient in rounding and incorporating outlying probabilities.


First of all this part of your post you are saying that you will not accept anything that is against what you are saying. You are expecting everyone to agree with you. Sorry that does not happen here. The drop rates do not change as you mentioned. I was getting legendary drops in patch 1.0.4 at a rate of around 1 per 100 hours played. Now it has increased since the patch. I would say it is close to being one every 50 hours and will no doubt stay at that rate which shows that they did double the drop rate of legendaries.
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This is simple Blizzard suks!!

All day famrming act 1 about 10 runs!!! MP6, 5 stacks totall 380% mf what did i find??? not even a fuking key!!!

!@#$ u blizzard!!! This game is so Dead!!
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i have no issues with my drop rate and how many legendary items I get.

Q to the Q more.
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As others in this thread have mentioned, having a “hot streak” of good drops, or by contrast, a streak of poor drops can happen because the probability of each roll is not tied to the previous one. Ketchup offered a good example of this:

10/15/2012 03:29 PMPosted by Ketchup
Do you believe flipping a coin 100 times will yield exactly 50 heads and 50 tails? maybe a coin might give you close 50/50. when you include more things in the calculations, it gets ugly from there. probabilities do not remember what you rolled before. only at the instant when it rolls.

Because of this, you are not guaranteed any set number of Legendaries, set items, or rares within a certain period of time. Bear in mind that MF affects the quality of drops you’ll see, but not necessarily the number of drops you get from a particular kill (you can find out more about Magic Find here). Thus having high MF and being able to quickly and effectively clear challenging monsters will certainly aide your cause, but at the end of the day, the “luck” players have can vary widely.


Yeah, not only all this, but think about putting a list of songs on Shuffle. You can have 5k songs on your iPod or smartphone, and if you put it on Shuffle, there may be days where the same exact song comes up numerous times. The odds are always the same.

Does that make it good? Well...given that Unique monsters are supposed to be special, and their drops tend to not be that great means it kinda defies some amount of logic. But it's still somewhat fair when thinking about some days, you'll get a few legendaries, some other times you won't.

For me, that's good. It means eventually I'll get better quality items, but I'm just at that point yet. I'm comfortable with that.
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86 Blood Elf Death Knight
9865
As others in this thread have mentioned, having a “hot streak” of good drops, or by contrast, a streak of poor drops can happen because the probability of each roll is not tied to the previous one. Ketchup offered a good example of this:

Do you believe flipping a coin 100 times will yield exactly 50 heads and 50 tails? maybe a coin might give you close 50/50. when you include more things in the calculations, it gets ugly from there. probabilities do not remember what you rolled before. only at the instant when it rolls.


Because of this, you are not guaranteed any set number of Legendaries, set items, or rares within a certain period of time. Bear in mind that MF affects the quality of drops you’ll see, but not necessarily the number of drops you get from a particular kill (you can find out more about Magic Find [url="http://us.battle.net/d3/en/game/guide/items/equipment#magic-find"]here[/url]). Thus having high MF and being able to quickly and effectively clear challenging monsters will certainly aide your cause, but at the end of the day, the “luck” players have can vary widely.


Coin tosses have a bias to them and are not 50/50, if you Google "odds of flipping heads with physics" you can look at the first hit and it goes into further explanation.

IMO I think blizzard has a seed in which the random is generated and there is a way to tip it in your favor, it's just not widely known yet. As a side note some people believe in the lucky IP address room as an example.
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As others in this thread have mentioned, having a “hot streak” of good drops, or by contrast, a streak of poor drops can happen because the probability of each roll is not tied to the previous one. Ketchup offered a good example of this:

Do you believe flipping a coin 100 times will yield exactly 50 heads and 50 tails? maybe a coin might give you close 50/50. when you include more things in the calculations, it gets ugly from there. probabilities do not remember what you rolled before. only at the instant when it rolls.


Because of this, you are not guaranteed any set number of Legendaries, set items, or rares within a certain period of time. Bear in mind that MF affects the quality of drops you’ll see, but not necessarily the number of drops you get from a particular kill (you can find out more about Magic Find [url="http://us.battle.net/d3/en/game/guide/items/equipment#magic-find"]here[/url]). Thus having high MF and being able to quickly and effectively clear challenging monsters will certainly aide your cause, but at the end of the day, the “luck” players have can vary widely.


The only thing im curious about is why is it always the same 3-4 legendary's dropping for me?

And no thier not the same ilvl but pretty much every legendary drop i get turns out to be one of these:

Stormcrow
Tza spirit stone
ageless might
Dawn

I understand legendary chances of dropping are RnG but is the item you get Rng?

Hard to understand and believe it if it is due to personal account within the game is all im saying.

I've never found like frostburn or a vile ward or a wizardspike ext It's almost always commonly one of those 4 items.
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