Diablo® III

15 legendaries in 3 hours = CONTROLLED DROPS

Posts: 217
unbelievable.
anyoone else noticed rise in drops ?
Or it's just RNG?
Reply Quote
It's blizzard.
Reply Quote
Community Manager
Posts: 1,395
As others in this thread have mentioned, having a “hot streak” of good drops, or by contrast, a streak of poor drops can happen because the probability of each roll is not tied to the previous one. Ketchup offered a good example of this:

10/15/2012 03:29 PMPosted by Ketchup
Do you believe flipping a coin 100 times will yield exactly 50 heads and 50 tails? maybe a coin might give you close 50/50. when you include more things in the calculations, it gets ugly from there. probabilities do not remember what you rolled before. only at the instant when it rolls.


Because of this, you are not guaranteed any set number of Legendaries, set items, or rares within a certain period of time. Bear in mind that MF affects the quality of drops you’ll see, but not necessarily the number of drops you get from a particular kill (you can find out more about Magic Find here). Thus having high MF and being able to quickly and effectively clear challenging monsters will certainly aide your cause, but at the end of the day, the “luck” players have can vary widely.
Reply Quote
YOU WERE LUCKY! That is all..
Reply Quote
this thread is now a tinfoilhat party.
Reply Quote
As others in this thread have mentioned, having a “hot streak” of good drops, or by contrast, a streak of poor drops can happen because the probability of each roll is not tied to the previous one. Ketchup offered a good example of this:

Do you believe flipping a coin 100 times will yield exactly 50 heads and 50 tails? maybe a coin might give you close 50/50. when you include more things in the calculations, it gets ugly from there. probabilities do not remember what you rolled before. only at the instant when it rolls.


Because of this, you are not guaranteed any set number of Legendaries, set items, or rares within a certain period of time. Bear in mind that MF affects the quality of drops you’ll see, but not necessarily the number of drops you get from a particular kill (you can find out more about Magic Find [url="http://us.battle.net/d3/en/game/guide/items/equipment#magic-find"]here[/url]). Thus having high MF and being able to quickly and effectively clear challenging monsters will certainly aide your cause, but at the end of the day, the “luck” players have can vary widely.


Its a flipping ARPG luck is a given but there shouldnt be such insane and unimaginable differences between players drops. 1 set item from a chest the entire time i played and about 4 completely worthless garbage legends. Nothing fun or rewarding about never being able to reasonably find your own set items.
Reply Quote
I thought this happened to me as well.

the day after 1.04 was released I found 2 legendaries within 15 minutes of each other. they were almost on the same floor of the dungeon.....it was insane.

but a thread was started in hopes to gather everyone who witnessed this phenomenon and Im sure there was only about 30 of us..........

i was expecting thousands of occurences but nope....unless everyone missed the thread....
Reply Quote
I've got 300mf and haven't found a legendary since at least 150m paragon exp. Not the worst but it looks like you have stolen some of my luck.
Reply Quote
Posts: 1,432
View profile
As others in this thread have mentioned, having a “hot streak” of good drops, or by contrast, a streak of poor drops can happen because the probability of each roll is not tied to the previous one. Ketchup offered a good example of this:

Do you believe flipping a coin 100 times will yield exactly 50 heads and 50 tails? maybe a coin might give you close 50/50. when you include more things in the calculations, it gets ugly from there. probabilities do not remember what you rolled before. only at the instant when it rolls.


Because of this, you are not guaranteed any set number of Legendaries, set items, or rares within a certain period of time. Bear in mind that MF affects the quality of drops you’ll see, but not necessarily the number of drops you get from a particular kill (you can find out more about Magic Find [url="http://us.battle.net/d3/en/game/guide/items/equipment#magic-find"]here[/url]). Thus having high MF and being able to quickly and effectively clear challenging monsters will certainly aide your cause, but at the end of the day, the “luck” players have can vary widely.


I wish this were true but there is one way to control drops:

Pray to Jesus.

I prayed to Jesus that I would find a Skorn in 1.04, and guess what? Well TBH, I still haven't found one yet but I have faith that I will and thats most important!
Reply Quote
There's a 1/52 chance of pulling an ace of spades from the top of a card deck. Just because you have 52 card decks doesn't mean that 1 is going to have an ace of spades on the top. None could have it, or 35 could have it. The same applies for drops. Say there's a 1/2500 chance for a legendary to drop (disregarding other factors such as MF), it doesn't mean that 1 in every 2500 drops is going to be a legendary. You could get 10,000 drops and not have a single legendary drop, or you could get 3 in 100 drops. This is called probability, not conspiracy. There's a mathematical conclusion to everything concerning drops.

But the forums are boring without conspiracy theories, so I'll stop using logic and listen to all these conspiracy theories. And hey, speaking of conspiracy theories, Blizzard paid me $5 to post this.
Edited by PVStar#1232 on 10/15/2012 7:07 PM PDT
Reply Quote
you got bombed with legendaries and you're complaining? <:
Reply Quote
So I play around 2 hours a day in the morning with my boyfriend.


I just hope you're a girl.


I hope you aren't a homophobe.
Reply Quote
10/15/2012 06:47 PMPosted by Vaeflare
Because of this, you are not guaranteed any set number of Legendaries, set items, or rares within a certain period of time.


But there should be some kind of "min/max".. It should not be "by design" that one could play 300 hours or more and not have at least 1 set item. Or go weeks withouth a legendary. But.. whatever.

It seems we get overwhelmed with crap rares that take 3 seconds each to identify. (yeah, i know you are making it 1 second in the patch but no "identify all" option.. really???)

I don't mind the hunt.. but that means you normally end up finding something.
Reply Quote
10/15/2012 06:51 PMPosted by Simon
YOU WERE LUCKY! That is all..


I don't think that you can get THAT lucky.

Ofc there is no proof, so in the end we can accomplish nothing.

However everytime a patch hits these threads pop up, and the luckiest streaks you get inbetween patches (reported in these forums) are pretty much "Hey i got a set item drop with the same stats twice!!" or "I did a run and got like 2/3 legendaries in the same run!!!"

The numbers the op claim are insane.

My guess is (buckle up those tinfoil hats boys and girls) Blizz resets the AH control variable each time a patch hits, meaning you will see a big burst of drops down to the usual flow.

It may (or not) be connected to the AH, but i'm pretty sure this is not 100% RNG. Perhaps the RNG algorithm gets affected during patch days... i remember talks about killing pigs in durotar influencing the RNG loot drop algorithm for WoW, but nothing was proved :)

The truth is, random is NOT random. These algorithms run based on predetermined variables and only Blizz know their secrets. The way i see it AH controls the drops followed by patch dates to secure players for a while.
Reply Quote
Because of this, you are not guaranteed any set number of Legendaries, set items, or rares within a certain period of time. Bear in mind that MF affects the quality of drops you’ll see, but not necessarily the number of drops you get from a particular kill (you can find out more about Magic Find here). Thus having high MF and being able to quickly and effectively clear challenging monsters will certainly aide your cause, but at the end of the day, the “luck” players have can vary widely.


And that's exactly why this game fails.
In D2, if you are those unlucky people, you can do boss runs because they have higher drop rates than other mobs. D2 has it right to things that are supposed to be fully randomized and things that are not supposed to be. An example of full power of randomization is their maps. An example of things that aren't supposed to rely solely on randomization is the drop rates of unique/sets.
In short, D3's loot system is far from meeting the standards of an interesting action role-playing game.
Reply Quote
10/15/2012 03:22 PMPosted by Fantomex
That's a sweet tin-foil hat you got there OP. Have any proof? Didn't think so.


I think you are tin-foiled or just bad.

Got proof it doesn't?

Apparently op is providing proof.

You are nothing but an ant meeting boot.

;]
Reply Quote
Posts: 2,158
View profile
As others in this thread have mentioned, having a “hot streak” of good drops, or by contrast, a streak of poor drops can happen because the probability of each roll is not tied to the previous one. Ketchup offered a good example of this:

Do you believe flipping a coin 100 times will yield exactly 50 heads and 50 tails? maybe a coin might give you close 50/50. when you include more things in the calculations, it gets ugly from there. probabilities do not remember what you rolled before. only at the instant when it rolls.


Because of this, you are not guaranteed any set number of Legendaries, set items, or rares within a certain period of time. Bear in mind that MF affects the quality of drops you’ll see, but not necessarily the number of drops you get from a particular kill (you can find out more about Magic Find [url="http://us.battle.net/d3/en/game/guide/items/equipment#magic-find"]here[/url]). Thus having high MF and being able to quickly and effectively clear challenging monsters will certainly aide your cause, but at the end of the day, the “luck” players have can vary widely.

But you can draw conclusions if the probability vs reality is wildly off. For example, if I flipped a coin 100 times and it landed on heads 90 times, I would think the coin was rigged. I'm not saying the loot system is rigged, but basically that's exactly what I'm saying lol.
If that person really did 15 legendaries in 3 hours, then the least Blizzard could do is launch an investigaion into the loot system. Because seriously, 15 in 3 hours? Maybe that really did happen and RNG is RNG. Or maybe the loot system is messed up. Either way, Blizzard should look into it.
Edited by TheFunGun21#1392 on 10/15/2012 7:19 PM PDT
Reply Quote
10/15/2012 03:18 PMPosted by pixelite
ITS NOT LUCK. That's the point of the post.


And next week you may go 50 hours without a drop. It's luck...

When Blizz said the drops were influenced by the AH, they meant it had to be toned down due to the ease of exchange...it's not friggan dynamically changing the drop rates realtime.

Jesus people...
Reply Quote

Please report any Code of Conduct violations, including:

Threats of violence. We take these seriously and will alert the proper authorities.

Posts containing personal information about other players. This includes physical addresses, e-mail addresses, phone numbers, and inappropriate photos and/or videos.

Harassing or discriminatory language. This will not be tolerated.

Forums Code of Conduct

Report Post # written by

Reason
Explain (256 characters max)
Submit Cancel

Reported!

[Close]