Diablo® III

15 legendaries in 3 hours = CONTROLLED DROPS

I feel the need to mention that if you flip a coin 100 times, the chance it will have exactly 50 heads is 7.9%
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bah my max was 9 legendaries in 4 hrs but theres 2 of you so I still win.
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10/15/2012 07:33 PMPosted by Dragus
bah my max was 9 legendaries in 4 hrs but theres 2 of you so I still win.


Wow, you all lucky bastards, my best record is 2 legs in one night and that was from PTR.
Yes, it was PTR! SIGH.
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this game blows
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10/15/2012 06:47 PMPosted by Vaeflare
As others in this thread have mentioned, having a “hot streak” of good drops, or by contrast, a streak of poor drops can happen because the probability of each roll is not tied to the previous one.


You heard it here folks. A Blue said running naked increase drop rates. Works best if your character is "hot" so Witch Doctors are screwed as usual.
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I have noticed a spike tonight once 1.05 was announced.
IK irons and Skorn within 1 run of each other, breaking my recent dry streak of 2500 elites.
MF between 283-291
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10/15/2012 07:40 PMPosted by MisterAjikko
bah my max was 9 legendaries in 4 hrs but theres 2 of you so I still win.


Wow, you all lucky bastards, my best record is 2 legs in one night and that was from PTR.
Yes, it was PTR! SIGH.


My daily average was 2-4 legendaries per 3-4 hrs of farming. I've only had a few occurrences where I got 6+ but this is when I had like 400MF. Think I run a bit under 300 now.

Now my MF set just collects dust. I only average 1-2 a day now per 1-2hrs as i'm a little burnt out from repetitive boring farming ; /
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However, I am not complaining. I am rather happy with my new drops!
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Wow, you all lucky bastards, my best record is 2 legs in one night and that was from PTR.
Yes, it was PTR! SIGH.


My daily average was 2-4 legendaries per 3-4 hrs of farming. I've only had a few occurrences where I got 6+ but this is when I had like 400MF. Think I run a bit under 300 now.

Now my MF set just collects dust. I only average 1-2 a day now per 1-2hrs as i'm a little burnt out from repetitive bot farming ; /


Fixed this ^ ;)

Just trolling...It's been a long day for me...
Edited by CosmicFire#1339 on 10/15/2012 7:50 PM PDT
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My record was 5 legendaries in 30 minutes on a single run.

@O.P, the problem with your post is that, you haven't done this 15 legs streak for several times.

Come back to us when you made this streak for a month and we'll be more interested to hear your "findings".

To those newbies, it doesn't matter if you got 10 legendaries in one day. If you can't repeat the same streak the following day, all you have previously was just random RNG.
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So I play around 2 hours a day in the morning with my boyfriend.


I just hope you're a girl.


I hope he is a girl
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Got 5 tonight. 2 Quality Legendaries and 3 plans. For 1 run of Act III. Another solid night of farming.
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I just hope you're a girl.


I hope he is a girl


That's not quite possible...
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So lets do some EASY math.
Lets say we kill 500 monsters an hour.
Lets be super nice and say normal drop rate is 1 legendary per 2000 monster kills at lvl 50 paragon.

We each run base mf (Around 150 each with paragon). I swap on elite kills (see gear).

We should normally get 1-2 legendary between us per 2 hrs of play.


tl;dr - finding 15 legendaries in 3 hours is mathematically VERY weird under a truly random drop system

I was curious just how improbable OP's story is so I wrote a short Python program to test it.

It takes only 2 parameters, legDropRatePerKill (set to 1/2000 in the examples I ran), and killsPerSession, then it runs a large number of sample play sessions in which you get killsPerSession kills each with a legDropRatePerKill chance of dropping a legendary.

Here's the results over 100,000 random play sessions with 6000 kills each and a 1/2000 chance for each kill to drop a legendary, which basically represents sessions of whatever length you would need to get 3 legendaries on average:

Running 100000 samples of 6000 kills
Average legendaries per session = 3.00743
Prob of finding =0 legendaries = 4.9959999999999996% (4996 instances)
Prob of finding =1 legendaries = 14.798% (14798 instances)
Prob of finding =2 legendaries = 22.459% (22459 instances)
Prob of finding =3 legendaries = 22.547% (22547 instances)
Prob of finding =4 legendaries = 16.515% (16515 instances)
Prob of finding =5 legendaries = 10.104000000000001% (10104 instances)
Prob of finding =6 legendaries = 5.11% (5110 instances)
Prob of finding =7 legendaries = 2.225% (2225 instances)
Prob of finding =8 legendaries = 0.823% (823 instances)
Prob of finding =9 legendaries = 0.302% (302 instances)
Prob of finding =10 legendaries = 0.084% (84 instances)
Prob of finding =11 legendaries = 0.023% (23 instances)
Prob of finding =12 legendaries = 0.009000000000000001% (9 instances)
Prob of finding =13 legendaries = 0.002% (2 instances)
Prob of finding =14 legendaries = 0.003% (3 instances)


Increase the number of kills to where you're averaging 5 legendaries per session and...
Running 100000 samples of 10000 kills
Average legendaries per session = 5.01181
Prob of finding =0 legendaries = 0.67% (670 instances)
Prob of finding =1 legendaries = 3.199% (3199 instances)
Prob of finding =2 legendaries = 8.463% (8463 instances)
Prob of finding =3 legendaries = 13.988% (13988 instances)
Prob of finding =4 legendaries = 17.427999999999997% (17428 instances)
Prob of finding =5 legendaries = 17.461% (17461 instances)
Prob of finding =6 legendaries = 14.768999999999998% (14769 instances)
Prob of finding =7 legendaries = 10.637% (10637 instances)
Prob of finding =8 legendaries = 6.673% (6673 instances)
Prob of finding =9 legendaries = 3.615% (3615 instances)
Prob of finding =10 legendaries = 1.772% (1772 instances)
Prob of finding =11 legendaries = 0.7969999999999999% (797 instances)
Prob of finding =12 legendaries = 0.347% (347 instances)
Prob of finding =13 legendaries = 0.125% (125 instances)
Prob of finding =14 legendaries = 0.04% (40 instances)
Prob of finding =15 legendaries = 0.011000000000000001% (11 instances)
Prob of finding =16 legendaries = 0.004% (4 instances)
Prob of finding =18 legendaries = 0.001% (1 instances)


If you assume OP would get 3 legendaries on average during the session, finding 15 is nearly impossible, and even if you assume 5 legendaries on average per session, the chance of getting 15 or more is less than 1 in 6000.

source code:
import random

random.seed()

legDropRatePerKill = (1/2000.0)
killsPerSession = 10000
numSessions = 100000

legCounts = []

for i in range(numSessions):
legCount = 0
for j in range(killsPerSession):
if (random.random() <= legDropRatePerKill):
legCount = legCount + 1
legCounts.append( legCount )

print( "Running " + str(numSessions) + " samples of " + str(killsPerSession) + " kills" )

legSum = 0
for count in legCounts:
legSum = legSum + count
legAvg = float( legSum / len(legCounts) )

print( "Average legendaries per session = " + str(legAvg) )

for numLegs in range(30):
count = 0
for legCount in legCounts:
if legCount == numLegs:
count = count + 1
if (count > 0):
prob = float( count / len(legCounts) )
percent = prob * 100.0
print( "Prob of finding =" + str(numLegs) + " legendaries = " + str(percent) + "% (" + str(count) + " instances)" )
Edited by Steve#1523 on 10/15/2012 8:44 PM PDT
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As others in this thread have mentioned, having a “hot streak” of good drops, or by contrast, a streak of poor drops can happen because the probability of each roll is not tied to the previous one. Ketchup offered a good example of this:

10/15/2012 03:29 PMPosted by Ketchup
Do you believe flipping a coin 100 times will yield exactly 50 heads and 50 tails? maybe a coin might give you close 50/50. when you include more things in the calculations, it gets ugly from there. probabilities do not remember what you rolled before. only at the instant when it rolls.


So whats it say about the drop rates when you flip a coin 1000 times and it never comes up heads.
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Um.

RNG. is. RNG.
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rng is not rng.

rigged is rigged. learn the difference you fricken idiots.

i cant say 100% that this game is rigged but when 1.04 hit i found 2 manticores, a deadmans, a zunipox, a godly lucaniprowlers. havnt found crap since then.

all i can say is this game is 100% FISHY. FISHY IS FISHY.
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This is crazy, I too had 3 leg drops within 10 mins. pretty !@#$ty legs, except for an echoin fury. but yea, my eyes couldnt believe it ha :)
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rng is not rng.

rigged is rigged. learn the difference you fricken idiots.

i cant say 100% that this game is rigged but when 1.04 hit i found 2 manticores, a deadmans, a zunipox, a godly lucaniprowlers. havnt found crap since then.

all i can say is this game is 100% FISHY. FISHY IS FISHY.


you are obsessed with conspiracy theories.

sheesh
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