Diablo® III

15 legendaries in 3 hours = CONTROLLED DROPS

As others in this thread have mentioned, having a “hot streak” of good drops, or by contrast, a streak of poor drops can happen because the probability of each roll is not tied to the previous one. Ketchup offered a good example of this:

Do you believe flipping a coin 100 times will yield exactly 50 heads and 50 tails? maybe a coin might give you close 50/50. when you include more things in the calculations, it gets ugly from there. probabilities do not remember what you rolled before. only at the instant when it rolls.


Because of this, you are not guaranteed any set number of Legendaries, set items, or rares within a certain period of time. Bear in mind that MF affects the quality of drops you’ll see, but not necessarily the number of drops you get from a particular kill (you can find out more about Magic Find [url="http://us.battle.net/d3/en/game/guide/items/equipment#magic-find"]here[/url]). Thus having high MF and being able to quickly and effectively clear challenging monsters will certainly aide your cause, but at the end of the day, the “luck” players have can vary widely.


Iam here to play the game and have fun and not roll a slot machine. That's how d3 feels right now.
Edited by Linkin#1911 on 10/15/2012 10:09 PM PDT
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So... could Blizzard please consider making it possible for us players to see how our drop rates compare with the intended average drop rates? Maybe at least post a graph showing the overall "luck curve" of the playerbase?

My lone hero is at just over 90 thousand kills (4 thousand elite); I started back in May but I'm a casual player. So far I've had merely two legendary and one set item drop (if memory serves) and sadly, not one ever made me think "wow, that's legendary". Rather the opposite, honestly. And that's without ever spending more than 256k on any AH item.

I do hope drops aren't running off a linear graph; there's a reason many pen-and-paper RPGs use bell curve distributions.
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As others in this thread have mentioned, having a “hot streak” of good drops, or by contrast, a streak of poor drops can happen because the probability of each roll is not tied to the previous one. Ketchup offered a good example of this:



Because of this, you are not guaranteed any set number of Legendaries, set items, or rares within a certain period of time. Bear in mind that MF affects the quality of drops you’ll see, but not necessarily the number of drops you get from a particular kill (you can find out more about Magic Find [url="http://us.battle.net/d3/en/game/guide/items/equipment#magic-find"]here[/url]). Thus having high MF and being able to quickly and effectively clear challenging monsters will certainly aide your cause, but at the end of the day, the “luck” players have can vary widely.


Iam here to play the game and have fun and not roll a slot machine. That's how d3 feels right now.


This ^.

This game is just an MMOAH3.

I spent more time looking through AH than playing the actual game.
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10/15/2012 06:47 PMPosted by Vaeflare
As others in this thread have mentioned, having a “hot streak” of good drops, or by contrast, a streak of poor drops can happen because the probability of each roll is not tied to the previous one. Ketchup offered a good example of this:


My question is: How do you explain the large number of people who since day one have had a consistent streak of "poor drops" (as you call it) and have put in 100hrs+ into the game. I for one am one of those people. I'm not complaining, I still play on a regular basis. But admittedly it is frustrating. If we look a Ketchup's example of the coins, I agree that statistically and according to probability, if you flip 100 times, it is nearly impossible to get the 50/50 split. However, of those 100 times we could be safe to say that at least 10% would be one side or the other. Yes I understand the game mechanics that there is more to it than just a random roll, but breaking it down like this, should figure that if I play 100hrs (100 flips) I should be guaranteed to get at least 1 "Heads" (Legendary), - statistically it's probably higher (but I'll keep it to the bare minimum). So why are there so many people with 0 good drops??

edit: Forgot the ? :)
edit2: "Poor drops" in my case is 0 Set or Legendaries since I started playing in May and i'm 150hrs+ of game time.
Edited by HemiGeo#1705 on 10/15/2012 10:21 PM PDT
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Only childish gamer and loser can come up with fantastic scientific theories and/or just because they got crap drops or maybe just been greedy. Blizzard don't even have sufficient customer service to serve you let alone monitor and tag your account, unless with some smart programming.
Sometime i just can't stop laughing after reading posts with all sorts of theories and assumptions such as Kopokabana. I am 100% agree and believe that all the drops are depending on your luck and MF has only a little impact on the quality of the drops. There was a time where I got 1 quality set item and 4 lengendary ( 2 quality) in 1 single Act 3 run and there were time I don't even get a legendary for 2 - 3 days. I just have to accept my luck when it is not on my side.
FYI, I collected more than 25 set items and bunch of lengendary. I m running at max MF of 403 and more than 50% of the legendary I collected are craps but I m not complaining. Just accept it or move on with your life.


so what would you say if you cut your mf in half, but got 0 sets and legs? just accept your luck? this is not a lottery system, its a game. at least i thought it was. didn't jay say something about rewarding players before?
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SirCrovax
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And you whine because you got luck? This is ridiculous!!!


its not luck, i played 1500 hours and i still havent got a single 100m item,
just like the other day i got 6 legends on 6 runs, 3 scrap 1 set 2 sellable
on my last run my party got an set item that sell 300m to 400m, so wheres the balance on that
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As others in this thread have mentioned, having a “hot streak” of good drops, or by contrast, a streak of poor drops can happen because the probability of each roll is not tied to the previous one. Ketchup offered a good example of this:

Do you believe flipping a coin 100 times will yield exactly 50 heads and 50 tails? maybe a coin might give you close 50/50. when you include more things in the calculations, it gets ugly from there. probabilities do not remember what you rolled before. only at the instant when it rolls.


Because of this, you are not guaranteed any set number of Legendaries, set items, or rares within a certain period of time. Bear in mind that MF affects the quality of drops you’ll see, but not necessarily the number of drops you get from a particular kill (you can find out more about Magic Find [url="http://us.battle.net/d3/en/game/guide/items/equipment#magic-find"]here[/url]). Thus having high MF and being able to quickly and effectively clear challenging monsters will certainly aide your cause, but at the end of the day, the “luck” players have can vary widely.


One thing I hope this game can eventually do is to put a "Streak Breaker" in drop quality. When I played City of Villains, they put a "streak breaker" in Defense because the highest defense you can get is to Dodge 95% of the time. 5% chance to hit something can sometimes REALLY discourage players if they miss like 20 times in a row, so they put a "streak breaker" after 9 hits. After a Player missing 9-10 times, the game will let you land a hit. They do this because players do not like to Miss all the time.

I brought this up because having a "pure luck" of chance means SOMEBODY can be always on the "unlucky" side. I only got 3 set items in the past 3.5 months and I thought I was unlucky. One person I met in Public Game said he only got ONE set item in the past 3 months and he is paragon lvl 33.

I truly think leaving everything to "luck" can eventually leave a very bad taste for "causal" players who only have time to play maybe 1-2 hours a day. They may not get anything good in the first 10-20 hours and their conclusion is that "This game doesn't drop anything good so I am forced to upgrade in AH".

I really hope this game can install a "Unlucky Streak Breaker" where if a person always rolls a non-Legendary after certain number of times (say 100 times?), then the game should automatically let that player to roll a Legendary to break that "Unluckiness".


Ultimately, you do want Players to stay in this game right? My very first Set item is after 3 MONTHS of playing this game. What do you think my conclusion of this game's drop rate is during these 3 months?

The "streak breaker" should be high enough that most players will never hit that breaker but you need it in place in case that Player ALWAYS rolls on the wrong side of the coin.
Edited by Jibikao#1131 on 10/15/2012 10:21 PM PDT
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My question is: How do you explain the large number of people who since day one have had a consistent streak of "poor drops" (as you call it) and have put in 100hrs+ into the game. I for one am one of those people. I'm not complaining, I still play on a regular basis. But admittedly it is frustrating. If we look a Ketchup's example of the coins, I agree that statistically and according to probability, if you flip 100 times, it is nearly impossible to the a 50/50 split. However, of those 100 times we could be safe to say that at least 10% would be one side or the other. Yes I understand the game mechanics that there is more to it than just a random roll, but breaking it down like this, should figure that if I play 100hrs (100 flips) I should be guaranteed to get at least 1 "Heads" (Legendary), - statistically it's probably higher (but I'll keep it to the bare minimum). So why are there so many people with 0 good drops??


this
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Well I got lucky last night. 1 legendary (a rubbish Hellcat Waistguard) and 3 exalted fine plans, none of which I had learnt already. Comes 2 weeks after my last legendary.

On a side note, all my plans have come in groups of 3 or 4.
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It is this game's best interest that the quality of drop needs to even out a little. Believe me, after playing this game for 4 months, I still have not sold over 100mil of Gold. My two best pieces are two Tal Rasha (Helmet and Chest) and THAT is it. I bought two gold services twice because I simply can't get any good drops and I am paragon lvl 38 now.

Leaving everything to "Luck" can only ruin this game in the long run IMO. Because those that are "lucky" all the time will enjoy this game way more than those that are always on the unlucky side. In a way, it is unfair. Don't leave everything to Luck. This game can do better than that. The goal is to keep Players interested. Having no good drop for 100-200 hours IS NOT FUN and you must know this.

Those players that are lucky don't know how unlucky players feel. Those unlucky players may have skills but they can NEVER BEAT luck. Luck is out of their reach. And Time will eventually run out and Players move on to another game.
Edited by Jibikao#1131 on 10/15/2012 10:27 PM PDT
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I've found 1 legendary (crap), 0 set items in the last month and a half.

I play more AH than I play the game now. Its frustrating that I jump on and feel like its a waste of time.

This game caters too much around the AH and not enjoyment.

If this was indeed an MMO with over hundreds and thousands of players in the same world then I can understand the drop rates. But seriously, this is an Action RPG, not MMO, why is it catered and treated like an MMO where players have to "work" instead of playing and having fun. (Entertainment value, and fluidity)

Not to mention the people who have the most "fun" are those who abused glitches, duped money/gold from bugs or purely buy them off bots.

This doesn't apply to me since I play hardcore, but even then it diminishes the gameplay even more when it feels 1000x less rewarding/fun in comparison cause i can't even get 1 decent item per 10 hours of play.

What am I grinding/leveling for? So i can increase my chances and maybe play more roulette to finding this decent item?

If this had an offline feature, at least then I can play the game I wanted to and assumed I purchased.
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wooo... another post talking about fail blizz... another post full of lovers sheep trolling the op.
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This thread is beating a dead horse.

No matter how many times Blizzard steps in and says it's rng, rolls are rolls. Paranoid people and trolls will keep coming up with new ways to flat out call Blizzard liars. If you believe your being lied to why not move on?
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I think I found less then 15 legendaries in 3000 hours you are really lucky. What else are you doing? Hint would be appreciative.
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This thread is beating a dead horse.

No matter how many times Blizzard steps in and says it's rng, rolls are rolls. Paranoid people and trolls will keep coming up with new ways to flat out call Blizzard liars. If you believe your being lied to why not move on?

Ya but aren't there other factor then rolls like how many level 60 characters, how much of a percent of the damage you are doing if you are in a multiplayer, and MF? I think there might be another variable and I want to learn it.
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you are obsessed with conspiracy theories.

sheesh


herp derp. a company would never flood the market with godly loot right before a bunch of people come back and start playing again and buying stuff. drrr, it has nothing to do with RMAH sales. no, a company would never do that. herpty derpty do.


You can't convince the sheep. No matter what you say they will be blind to the obvious. Its evident drop rates change. Anyone who farms consistently at a high pace knows this. Found 1-2 legendaries every run the first week after 1.04 and was like WOW this is great. Few weeks later nada. Wouldn't see anything for 10-20 runs in a roll. Even after increasing my mf and dps.
Edited by jli251#1168 on 10/15/2012 11:06 PM PDT
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As others in this thread have mentioned, having a “hot streak” of good drops, or by contrast, a streak of poor drops can happen because the probability of each roll is not tied to the previous one. Ketchup offered a good example of this:

Do you believe flipping a coin 100 times will yield exactly 50 heads and 50 tails? maybe a coin might give you close 50/50. when you include more things in the calculations, it gets ugly from there. probabilities do not remember what you rolled before. only at the instant when it rolls.


Because of this, you are not guaranteed any set number of Legendaries, set items, or rares within a certain period of time. Bear in mind that MF affects the quality of drops you’ll see, but not necessarily the number of drops you get from a particular kill (you can find out more about Magic Find [url="http://us.battle.net/d3/en/game/guide/items/equipment#magic-find"]here[/url]). Thus having high MF and being able to quickly and effectively clear challenging monsters will certainly aide your cause, but at the end of the day, the “luck” players have can vary widely.
Bull!@#$. I played Diablo 3 for 120 hours. I am sure that if I played Diablo 2 for 120 hours I would have at least found ONE set item and ONE useful legendary item.
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As others in this thread have mentioned, having a “hot streak” of good drops, or by contrast, a streak of poor drops can happen because the probability of each roll is not tied to the previous one. Ketchup offered a good example of this:

Do you believe flipping a coin 100 times will yield exactly 50 heads and 50 tails? maybe a coin might give you close 50/50. when you include more things in the calculations, it gets ugly from there. probabilities do not remember what you rolled before. only at the instant when it rolls.


Because of this, you are not guaranteed any set number of Legendaries, set items, or rares within a certain period of time. Bear in mind that MF affects the quality of drops you’ll see, but not necessarily the number of drops you get from a particular kill (you can find out more about Magic Find [url="http://us.battle.net/d3/en/game/guide/items/equipment#magic-find"]here[/url]). Thus having high MF and being able to quickly and effectively clear challenging monsters will certainly aide your cause, but at the end of the day, the “luck” players have can vary widely.


Appreciate the post Vaeflare, but I do have to call bull on this one.

One of your co-workers there already admitted a couple of years back that you guys do have the power and have exercised in the past to flag and alter people's game play experience to "problem players" I don't know if you were around 2-3 years ago, but you are aware of this going on are you not?

If not, then you should familiarize yourself with what might be going on around you. You per say, along with the other CM's, aren't directly involved with the programming I'm guessing, but are you in the loop when it comes down to whats being handed down to people's accounts? I know the communication is bad between people at Blizzard which has been documented many times, but you and the rest of the CM's may need to start nosing around a little more in what's going on.

Luck is luck.. and can be interpreted in many different ways to many different people, so that card really can't be pulled on this one. The sheer odds of certain people on here getting the amount of legendaries they do, are completely beyond comprehension. To the point, it's probably more likely for them to get hit by lightning every single day for the rest of their life and survive. Sure it could happen, but seriously..

It's the same people with the same stories on legendaries. I know you guys supposedly read all the threads so I don't see what the problem for any of you in looking back at the threads and pinpointing the people who at least are "claiming" to get these legendaries much more frequently than anybody else, and some with very little MF. It's not hard to pinpoint them as the same ones keep cropping up.

Go investigate it, and come back here with a straight face and see if you can tell us the same thing again.

In the end, I could really care less if player A gets 1000 legendaries with 0 MF, while player B gets 0 legendaries with Max MF. A boring game is a boring game no matter which way you look at it. The last time I checked, Diablo was about owning the competition, not struggling to get items to complete whatever content is thrown at us.
Edited by Deadlysynz#1583 on 10/15/2012 11:17 PM PDT
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As others in this thread have mentioned, having a “hot streak” of good drops, or by contrast, a streak of poor drops can happen because the probability of each roll is not tied to the previous one. Ketchup offered a good example of this:

Do you believe flipping a coin 100 times will yield exactly 50 heads and 50 tails? maybe a coin might give you close 50/50. when you include more things in the calculations, it gets ugly from there. probabilities do not remember what you rolled before. only at the instant when it rolls.


Because of this, you are not guaranteed any set number of Legendaries, set items, or rares within a certain period of time. Bear in mind that MF affects the quality of drops you’ll see, but not necessarily the number of drops you get from a particular kill (you can find out more about Magic Find [url="http://us.battle.net/d3/en/game/guide/items/equipment#magic-find"]here[/url]). Thus having high MF and being able to quickly and effectively clear challenging monsters will certainly aide your cause, but at the end of the day, the “luck” players have can vary widely.


Ok so random is random right?
But i have a question for you and i will be very much apreciated your replay to this.

Ok so how much chances of geting a legendary drop i have?...i read somewer that i have a 0.01% to get a legendary per monster kiled?Than how come in one run i got a same trash legendary wrists 2 times?i mean 0.01%chance for one drop and to get same item in one run is like 0.01% x ...?How much chances?

Ok another one!In the last 3 wecks i got around 15 legendary 2 handed woapon all trash many duplicates from a pool of legendary items showed on the oficla site to be around a few hundred in total!

Ok another!In my last 3 wecks i got only trash legendaryes meaning all 2 handed woapons that cant be sell - thouse lv 61 wrists a few times -the usles lv 61 shield 3 times and so on!
Why not geting thouse realy good items 2 or 3 times ?In fact after patch 1.04 hit us i did get a few good items that worth sell and after 2 weks after the patch realese nothing worth anything!

I will realy apreciate your replay about randomnes in my drops that also are shared with my friends having the same problem!And i do play around 8 hours a day...in case that mater!

I will also post here my drops...in case a blue may need a proof!
Today 10-16-2012 runing act 3 inf
http://picz.ro/index.php?id=5bd0c043c4ba3c32c0446b89f04c505eMy legendary drop!
Edited by Cady#1370 on 10/16/2012 12:03 AM PDT
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