Diablo® III

15 legendaries in 3 hours = CONTROLLED DROPS

From my experience all I can say is that I got the most legendaries the morning when 1.04 was launched.

Hot streak ? Mkay. But then lots of other people reporting the same lucky streak, 90% of my friends and later on a heavy duty botter I found streaming also confirmed that right after the patch launched the increased legendary drops was as obvious as Jay Wilson's chin.

But don't take my word for it, Blizz would never lie to us, right ?
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It's hard to say, When I started my first run today I killed 1 mob. While he didnt drop a lege, the barrel that happened to be behind him dropped a set neck. It got me thinking..my luck always seems to be at its best as soon as I log on.
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"I like god do not play with dice and do not beleive in coincidences"
V for Vendetta :)
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I have to be honest...with the way the auction house works....getting lame drops all the time doesnt really bug me.

I think mostly i get white or grey items.....even from the biggest boss or best chests I get White items mostly...i think out of all the time i played i have gotten maybe 20 yellow items....and thats out of all the differing character types.

I say congratulations on getting tons of legendaries....i have never found one once...only cool thing i ever found was a set recipe(which i use to make items for my friends)...my friends whom I play with every so often actualy found some legendaries and other really neat items while they played with me....and find the cool stuff on a regular basis.

But after 100s of hours i just never found much in the way of really neat items.....I had to buy most of them from the auction house.

hmm...probably why i dont play as much....the rewards are kind of pathetic...for the time and effort spent.

I mean its neat you can make a boss blow up into a bunch of items....but when all it drops are items that are grey and white....kind of just makes it seam like a waste of time.

lol....maybe i got black listed...like the one poster said....if its true...go figure....could care less....i have terrible luck anywise...they could put the magic numbers in and I would probably still get white items only.

I admit i dont play as much lately...this has caused my friends i see on Saturdays and my Gaming groups to kind of stop playing as well...as they dont have anyone to bug on the game nor someone to watch die alot....

But that has nothing to do with drop rates....
I simply got more satisfaction out of differing game lately...strangely enough one that does colored drops as well...but is first person....I actualy get better stuff from that game.
Again not as cool as what my friends get....as i am super unlucky....but not too bad considering.
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This thread just proves how guys are smarter than girls.... lol
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There has only been ONE other time where we had COMPLETELY STATISTICALLY IMPROBABLE DROPS. The night before 1.04 came out we got around 9 legendaries in 4 hours.

That is not proof from empirical data. That is a theory based on a coincidence.
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10/15/2012 11:42 PMPosted by DeLq
From my experience all I can say is that I got the most legendaries the morning when 1.04 was launched.


Happen to me also, but im not accusing Blizz or anything. It just happen. Even i got 2 legendaries on a single drop, total 4 on that 1 run. More than 10 on 1 day. Second day i got more than 5. And suddenly it just stop. And AH starting to get flooded by new legendaries.
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As others in this thread have mentioned, having a “hot streak” of good drops, or by contrast, a streak of poor drops can happen because the probability of each roll is not tied to the previous one. Ketchup offered a good example of this:

Do you believe flipping a coin 100 times will yield exactly 50 heads and 50 tails? maybe a coin might give you close 50/50. when you include more things in the calculations, it gets ugly from there. probabilities do not remember what you rolled before. only at the instant when it rolls.


Because of this, you are not guaranteed any set number of Legendaries, set items, or rares within a certain period of time. Bear in mind that MF affects the quality of drops you’ll see, but not necessarily the number of drops you get from a particular kill (you can find out more about Magic Find [url="http://us.battle.net/d3/en/game/guide/items/equipment#magic-find"]here[/url]). Thus having high MF and being able to quickly and effectively clear challenging monsters will certainly aide your cause, but at the end of the day, the “luck” players have can vary widely.


How "Random" is random in this context?
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I've had a hot streak of drops worth less then $5 a drop for every $100 spent.

Maybe you should take a page from Magic the Gathering?
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I'm also on the verge of quitting.
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Girl that plays D3? Impossible.
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I suspect (and it probably goes without saying) that the RNG system was revamped for D3.

It probably comes down to the way they changed boss loot tables. In D2 it felt like you could really push your luck by farming just bosses. But farming trash felt like more of a worthless grind. Kinda like how D3 feels today for a lot of us.

In my 7k or so elite inferno kills I've found: A crappy Vizer, a crappy Grandfather, a crappy Cindercoat and a decent Triumvate.

Literally nothing else. Everything I have was RMAH or GAH. That hardly comes out to being 1 in 2500 but whatever. Trash runs sucked in D2 and they suck in D3. Granted, the trash in D3 actually puts up more of a fight. It still sucks however.
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Don't know if there was any math in this thread yet, but let's suppose OP gets on average 3 legendaries in 3 hours, and this one time got 15 legendaries. The probability of having such a freak 3 hours follows from the Poisson distribution, and is about 7*10^-7... ie about 1 in a million.

So let's say OP has played for hundreds of hours, then there's about a 1 in 10,000 chance that she would have such a freak 3 hours at some point.

So how many people play hundreds of hours like that? Hard to say but let's make a guess of 1% of the people that bought the game. I don't remember recent sales figures but maybe something like 10 million people bought the game. So maybe 100,000 people have played hundreds of hours of this game. So then on the order of 10 people might have had a freak occurrence like the OP. How many of them would have posted about it on the forum? They are dedicated fans for playing so much, so there is a good chance they might post about it.

So in conclusion, OP, something very lucky seems to have happened to you, but it was bound to happen to someone, so enjoy your good luck :).
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All I can say is must be nice, in all the time I've been playing I have found one legendary. Thats right one stinking belt 55 lv.
So stop your crying before they nerf it again and I never find anything ever. oh ya I forgot to whaaaaaaaaaaaaa!
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As others in this thread have mentioned, having a “hot streak” of good drops, or by contrast, a streak of poor drops can happen because the probability of each roll is not tied to the previous one. Ketchup offered a good example of this:

Do you believe flipping a coin 100 times will yield exactly 50 heads and 50 tails? maybe a coin might give you close 50/50. when you include more things in the calculations, it gets ugly from there. probabilities do not remember what you rolled before. only at the instant when it rolls.


Because of this, you are not guaranteed any set number of Legendaries, set items, or rares within a certain period of time. Bear in mind that MF affects the quality of drops you’ll see, but not necessarily the number of drops you get from a particular kill (you can find out more about Magic Find [url="http://us.battle.net/d3/en/game/guide/items/equipment#magic-find"]here[/url]). Thus having high MF and being able to quickly and effectively clear challenging monsters will certainly aide your cause, but at the end of the day, the “luck” players have can vary widely.


This is true and its a shame a lot of people are not smart enough to realize this. I've had days where 3 set items (and good ones that sold over 100m each) dropped in 1 hr, then i've had a week where nothing dropped worth over 25m.
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I give an example, it will be long but I hope it could shed some light on something which is called variance (aka luck).
Let's play a game: I generate random numbers in the range 1..100 and on a 90 or higher you win, 89 or less give nothing. So on each roll your chance to win is 11% (11 lucky numbers out of 100). You can think of each roll as a day of farming in Diablo and each win could mean getting a legendary.

I went to random.org which is one of the undisputed sites to give true randomness (heck they even make a living on selling random number services). I asked the site the generate random numbers in the above manner for 100 times. Here are the numbers:

4,25,33,98,47,63,69,30,5,81
8,74,44,66,37,7,28,19,73,7
93,5,90,90,89,28,94,53,62,93
20,64,30,75,25,34,22,87,94,25
97,40,76,68,57,14,60,7,82,39
36,71,7,51,55,11,97,37,81,51
56,84,35,3,93,80,95,7,89,63
10,1,73,40,62,17,37,86,84,29
73,17,95,85,81,19,66,47,47,11
80,4,97,71,58,60,37,66,55,58

I marked your lucky numbers below with Y, unlucky with N, and summarized in each row the number of wins:

NNNYNNNNNN = 1
NNNNNNNNNN = 0
YNYYNNYNNY = 5
NNNNNNNNYN = 1
YNNNNNNNNN = 1
NNNNNNYNNN = 1
NNNNYNYNNN = 2
NNNNNNNNNN = 0
NNYNNNNNNN = 1
NNYNNNNNNN = 1

Let's look at this as a Diablo player:
I found a legendary on day 4, but after that I had to go for 16 days without finding ANYTHING! Man I was super upset, almost quit Diablo. But on the third week my luck turned, it was like raining legendaries, I found 5 in week, a legendary every second day! In the end you won 13 legendaries, slightly above the expected 11, so all-in-all I can consider myself lucky in this example.

Do you think random.org was "rigged" when generating the first and second row? Do you think random.org secretly "buffed" drop chances when generating the third row? Do you think random.org "nerfed" my drop rates after I got my lucky week?
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10/15/2012 03:40 PMPosted by Seditious
Holy crap man, that is awesome. I've got 1 Legendary in my last 2 weeks of play (about 42 hours), and still have never seen a set item. It will be my turn one day. ( yes it's act 3 alkiezer runs).


You could stand to sacrifice about 30-40K DPS for some magic find and still run act 3 efficiently, considering all you have now is the 12 MF on your scoundrel. You obviously dont mind spending a ton of gold on AH.
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10/15/2012 10:53 PMPosted by AaronY
Ya but aren't there other factor then rolls like how many level 60 characters, how much of a percent of the damage you are doing if you are in a multiplayer, and MF? I think there might be another variable and I want to learn it.


I believe MF was explained in some detail in the past. I'm sure someone has posted a link in this thread.

As far as multi-player damage I agree there may be something there, but that's just my observation.

10/16/2012 12:59 AMPosted by brian
Don't know if there was any math in this thread yet, but let's suppose OP gets on average 3 legendaries in 3 hours, and this one time got 15 legendaries. The probability of having such a freak 3 hours follows from the Poisson distribution, and is about 7*10^-7... ie about 1 in a million.


1 million games probobly did go by since the last person got 15 legendary items in one day/game.

Fact of the matter is allot of people did get good drops before and after 1.04 and guess what allot of people got good drops today. I am also willing to bet the same goes for EVERY day lol. If every one who got great drops posted about it on the forums every day it happens... Like today I got 3 legendary items out of 4-5 runs ( I only do 4 maps and azmo per run ). Two of which came off the first run.
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mine is about 1 or 2 leg in 3 to 4 weeks=(

guess i am just not as lucky as OP........I think I need luck more than gold in D3
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