Diablo® III

Infernal Machine Plans

Hey guys

I got the 3 keys with no problems at all on MP2 (1st time A1, 3rd time A2, 4th time A3 respectively) however either I'm doing something wrong or I have the worst luck in getting the plans in A4.

To date I have run:
  • 1 run of MP0 (by accident) - 5% drop chance
  • 10 runs of MP1 - 10% drop chance
  • 12 runs of MP2 - 20% drop chance
  • 2 runs of MP3 - 30% drop chance
  • and it still hasn't dropped. And yes, each time I've killed the keywarden on inferno with 5 stacks. ;)

    So do I just have the worst luck?
    Edited by vulture#1268 on 10/24/2012 7:17 AM PDT
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    To date I have run:
  • 1 run of MP0 (by accident) - 5% drop chance
  • 10 runs of MP1 - 10% drop chance
  • 12 runs of MP2 - 20% drop chance
  • 2 runs of MP3 - 30% drop chance


  • Lets turn that around ;)

  • 1 run of MP0 (by accident) - 95% chance NOT to drop
  • 10 runs of MP1 - 90% chance NOT to drop
  • 12 runs of MP2 - 80% chance NOT to drop
  • 2 runs of MP3 - 70% chance NOT to drop
  • Sorry to say mate but the odds are stacked against you =(

    Keep at it! Your luck can improve! but yeah it really is just RNG mate.
    ________________________________________________
    Twitter: @Narull | ANZ Diablo III MVP
    http://us.battle.net/d3/en/forum/topic/6490399005 - Narull's Hardcore Challenge.
    There not spelling mistakes, Im speaking 'Ye Old English'
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    Lets turn that around ;)

  • 1 run of MP0 (by accident) - 95% chance NOT to drop
  • 10 runs of MP1 - 90% chance NOT to drop
  • 12 runs of MP2 - 80% chance NOT to drop
  • 2 runs of MP3 - 70% chance NOT to drop
  • Sorry to say mate but the odds are stacked against you =(

    Keep at it! Your luck can improve! but yeah it really is just RNG mate.


    At those runs he'd have a 4:1 (in his favour) chance of a plan dropping, so the odds shouldn't be stacked against him.

    But yeah, worst luck ever :P
    Edited by Infinite#6507 on 10/24/2012 5:08 PM PDT
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    Thanks guys. Yeah as Infinite said I had a 4:1 chance on getting it so far. I guess I'll have to keep pushing for it and eventually it will drop.

    At least I'm getting a lot better at surviving and killing elite packs as well as getting xp, gold and gems.
    Edited by vulture#1268 on 10/24/2012 6:19 PM PDT
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    BOOM! Got it on my 15th run on MP2. You have no idea how relieved I am to finally get the stupid plans.
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    I have made 12 runs at MP3 with no luck, I went up to MP4 and have done 4 runs with no luck so far, looks like I'm having the same problem :( The keys I all god relatively quickly as well
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    at mp0 I have had 3 plans dropped..
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    Posts: 120
    Well done mate!
    I'm glad the perseverence (no idea if I spelled that right) paid off for you.

    Now go get the ubers and tear them a new one!
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    I have the plan 3 times not from act4 on mp3-5 but as I don't need 3 of them... I was going to just drop the ones i did not need... but you can not drop this item or sell it... so now it just takes up room in my stash.. will have to move them to a lvl banker chr... sad we can't share when with people players from the group you found them with.
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    1 run of MP0 (by accident) - 95% chance NOT to drop10 runs of MP1 - 90% chance NOT to drop12 runs of MP2 - 80% chance NOT to drop2 runs of MP3 - 70% chance NOT to dropSorry to say mate but the odds are stacked against you =(

    Let's actually try the statistics on that.

    .95*.9^10*.8^12*.7^2=.0111

    Leaves roughly a 1/100 chance of him not getting it. Either you have really horrible luck, or those percentages aren't the real chance of getting it in the first place.
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    Then again, the proability that people with horrible luck for the plan (such as myself) report on this forum might be quite high.

    Still, are those percentage real?
    According to diablowiki [1], even at MP10 the drop is not guaranteed. Did someone experienced that?

    [1] http://www.diablowiki.net/Infernal_Machine#Building_the_Infernal_Machine
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    From diablowiki (emphasis added):
    Playing with the Monster Power system enabled will boost the odds of a key dropping, with a 10% bonus for each level of Monster Power, up to a 100% chance of the drop on Monster Power 10.

    This applies to all keywardens, including Nekarat who drops the plan.

    The thing to remember with key drop rates is that it applies to each run only - a 10% drop rate in MP1, does not necessarily mean that you will get the key 1 out of 10 runs. Only after having done a large number of runs will you find the ratio of key drops to keyless runs approaching 10%. So be patient at lower MP and don't despair because it will work out in the long run.
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    off topic I know, but if your word comes up underlined in red while your replying to a thread, it means it is incorrectly spelled. Just right click on it and a list of possible correct options will come up. :)
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