Diablo® III

Act 4 Keywarden Pattern

10/23/2012 11:50 AMPosted by bwest86
Mallet Lord - Molten, Jailer, Fast, H O R D E...FML


yikes, that's brutal.
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Community Manager
Posts: 3,119
10/23/2012 12:02 PMPosted by Squaekers
You had me scared there ;p


Sorry about that. :(
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1st try on MP3.
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6 more runs since my last reply. It's like the game knows the plans are all I need...
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It took me 15 runs at MP3-4 to get the plans. yes I hit the lottery as well. Just the wrong lottery.
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The people quoting the gamblers' fallacy are incorrect. Yes, every kill has a 30% chance to drop the plans for the OP, and this does not change. HOWEVER, there IS a set percent chance that he should have gotten it by now. Here is the formula:

x = q^n

x is the chance to have obtained a drop after n kills where q represents the chance of NOT getting the item.

x = 0.7^14
x = 0.00678223
x = 0.678223 %

When you flip a coin, you have a 50/50 chance of heads. If you flip it again, you have a 50/50 chance of heads. However, the odds of getting 2 heads out of two flips is 25%.

HH - 25%
HT - 25%
TH - 25%
TT - 25%

You have a 50% chance of getting exactly one heads, and exactly one tails. You have a 1 in 4 chance of two heads and again 1 in 4 of two tails. In this OP's case, we are looking at the TT case.

x = 0.5^2
x = 0.25

Odds of getting at least one H out of 3 flips:
HHH - 12.5
HHT - 12.5
HTH - 12.5
HTT - 12.5
THH - 12.5
THT - 12.5
TTH - 12.5
TTT - 12.5
Odds of no heads = 12.5%
x = 0.5^3
x = 0.125

BAM, STATISTIC'D

/edit:
For those interested in statistics, there is a full formula that allows you to calculate the probability of having exactly a certain number of a type of outcomes. We could calculate the chances of him getting exactly 1, 2, or 7 or whatever plans after 14 kills if we wanted. Here is the full formula:

X = SUM { n = 1 ... k } OF Bn * (p^k) * (p^(k-n))
Bn = represents that sequence in the binomial series (for k = 3, it would be 1, 2, 1) (for k = 4, it is 1, 3, 3, 1)
p = probability of it occurring
k = number of runs

The sum of all instances will add up to 100%, so we just cross out the terms we do not care about. For the OP's case, we essentially crossed out just the instance where we do not find it.
Edited by tehmikey#1108 on 10/23/2012 12:30 PM PDT
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The plans are legendary, right? Not blue like gem plans used to be? I've done this A4 run so many times now that the moment the warden starts to die I'm already teleporting. And if no lovely light beam, I just port out - rinse and repeat.
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1st kill at MP7.
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Just out of curiosity, did anyone in the thread so far list what the chances of a key dropping are without any MP boosting the chances?
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2nd try on MP4. I'm wondering about his fire attack, does anybody know if it's bugged? He'd cast it while I was nowhere near it and yet I would take insane damage over usually less than 2-3 seconds and then die. Over and over..
Anybody else see this kind of thing happen?


Don't know about bugged, but it does hit really hard and seems to keep hitting over several seconds. It's nasty.
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10/23/2012 12:47 PMPosted by Spincut
Just out of curiosity, did anyone in the thread so far list what the chances of a key dropping are without any MP boosting the chances?


5%
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2nd try on MP4. I'm wondering about his fire attack, does anybody know if it's bugged? He'd cast it while I was nowhere near it and yet I would take insane damage over usually less than 2-3 seconds and then die. Over and over..
Anybody else see this kind of thing happen?


Don't know about bugged, but it does hit really hard and seems to keep hitting over several seconds. It's nasty.


It's Rend with a vengeance! 40Khp poof in one swipe.
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10/23/2012 12:47 PMPosted by Spincut
Just out of curiosity, did anyone in the thread so far list what the chances of a key dropping are without any MP boosting the chances?


5% MP0
10% MP1
20% MP2
.
.
.100% MP10
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I got in my 15 run or so in mp5 then my brother got it at his first try at mp4 so..
random xd
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MP 8, first try.
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Posts: 747
I've been pretty lucky with the drops. I've been getting them about 80% of the time on MP3~5.
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I am on my 10+ inferno machine. Portal after portal. I usually get all keys within 1-3 tries at most on all acts. :)

MP5+
Edited by SuperSaberHo#1807 on 10/23/2012 12:57 PM PDT
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I've heard:
MP0 = 5%, MP1=10%, and +10% per each additional level.

However, I've seen documentation that shows:

MP1=1%
MP2=8%
MP3=17%
MP4=26%
MP5=36%
MP6=47%
MP7=59%
MP8=71%
MP9=85%
MP10=100%

Were all these values changed before the final release? Which is accurate? Is there a link where it's officially published?

Thanks


This looks more like the chance for bonus item percentages, not the chance for keys/organs.


gambler's fallacy, the odds of it not dropping are the same 70% in every game you joined there is nothing cumulative about the percentages


You're wrong. When looking at a set of data you can calculate the % chance that a certain event did or did not happen within that set of data. You're correct in that every game has a 70% chance to not drop a key, but that doesn't change the fact that your chance of missing it 14 times in a row is ~0.678%. However, the next time he does the run he still has 70% chance of not finding the item.

The OP never made any statement saying "I expect to get it soon!" or "I'm due for it to drop on my next run" which would be the gambler's fallacy.
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1st try on MP5
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The people quoting the gamblers' fallacy are incorrect. Yes, every kill has a 30% chance to drop the plans for the OP, and this does not change. HOWEVER, there IS a set percent chance that he should have gotten it by now. Here is the formula:
...


The flaw in your reasonning is that you're talking about the fact that there's a set percent chance that HE should have gotten it by now.

And that's why there's nothing wrong with it. Stats are applied to a group, not to a single player.

Let's say someone runs the keywarden at MP1, 100 times.
The odds he gets a key are 99.997343%
( 1 - (0.9 ^100))
He'll get it pretty much everytime. At least one key (usually more).

But what if a thousand players are doing this?
The odds that ALL of them finding at least a key are 97.378790897%
Which means there's more than 2% odds that someone will not find a key at MP1 if he runs it 100 times.
10000 players? 24% odds someone will not find it.
100000 players? 93% odds someone will not find it.
1 million players? 99.99999997% odds someone will not find it.
10 millions players? 99.[insert 116 *9* here]55967% odds someoen will not find it.

So, when someone makes a thread about a statistical anomaly he found in game...
Keep in mind there's not just 1 player in the game.
When millions of players plays billions of hours, weird stuff is bound happens. If it didn't happen, now THAT would be weird.

Saying it's weird that this or that player didn't find a key/drop/legendary/wtv because he had 99% to get it, is just like saying it's weird that this guy won the lottery when he only had 0.0000001% to win it. Yes, HE had 0.0000001% to win it, so did 10 million other people.
Edited by blood#1783 on 10/23/2012 1:16 PM PDT
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