Diablo® III

Exercise to understand RNG

If you think there is some grand conspiracy by Blizz to control drop rates somehow, do the following exercise:

1. Download Openoffice (if you have MS office, use rand instead of randbetween below)
2. Open Calc
3. In the first cell of the spreadsheet, type "=randbetween(1,2)"
4. Copy this cell into cells A1 through A100.
5. In cell B1, type "=average(A1:A100)"

What you have done is simulate key drops for MP 5, 50% chance. Let's call a 1 a key drop and a 2 no key drop. Now go through the list and see how many times you get 5 or 6 in a row. I counted 4 in my 100 times. However, notice your average. It should be somewhere between 1.4 and 1.6, meaning you're rolling 1 just about as often as 2.

If you now copy that first cell down to A1000, and change B1 to be "=average(A1:A1000)" you will get a number that is almost exactly 1.5. But you can visually look down through your columns and see how often you get many in a row. I got a streak of 12 just looking quickly through this list.

Hopefully this helps you to understand that getting 5 or 6 misses in a row on key drops doesn't mean RNG isn't working. In fact, it shows that it IS working.
Edited by Zoid#1297 on 10/21/2012 1:41 PM PDT
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Shamelessly bumping this because if anything, people seem to understand RNG LESS than they did when I wrote it.
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Drops depend on a lot of factors.

RMAH, loot server, ninja hotfixes, flagged accounts and maybe even the earths magnetic field.

That math stuff makes no sense.
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11/04/2012 03:20 PMPosted by Jodd
RMAH, loot server, ninja hotfixes, flagged accounts and maybe even the earths magnetic field.
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lol'd.

I'm pretty sure most ppl, other than a few morons, were not talking about the definition of RNG.

Anyway thx Cap. Obv
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Here is some RNG for you...

1. List the amount of frostburn gauntlets, storm crows, and 2 handed legs you've looted.
2. List the amount of Mempo of Twilights, Witching Hours, Vile Wards, and Ice Climbers you've looted.

The drop rates may be RNG... the type of leg dropping, clearly isn't.
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I say that there is an easier and cheaper way to understand rng and the fact that previous failures have not bearing on the next roll. Meaning that doing 10 key runs on MP5 does not guarantee you will get 5 keys. Thinking like that is a gamblers fallacy.

Just take any fair coin, one with a heads and a tails. Then flip it about 100-200 times. Record all of the results then say if you get exact 50% heads and 50% tails.
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Ehh I look at a bit differently. If you're rolling a pair of dice and going for snake eyes you might have to roll it once to get them, or 10,000 times. In the long run you'll get what you want you just have to keep trying.
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Not sure what the OP was trying to prove, did this little exercise in excel and pulled up the following in 10 refreshes:

1.45
1.57
1.5
1.44
1.49
1.4
1.51
1.51
1.49
1.5

two times a "perfect" 50%, 5 times under, 3 times over... I've farmed Act 3 at MP5 (50%) 13 times and have only found 1 key.
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i'm not sure the problem is a poor understanding of statistics
rather, some ppl feel drops are determined by factors other than chance

you are not ever going to get the legendary item that you been looking for, as a lvl 1
the same process that results in this effect can be used to adjust drops in say, Act3 Inferno

and i'm sure it can be done on the fly

i'm probably wrong, but that's the way i see it

by the way, i'm going to use this opportunity to shamelessly ask for more content
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Not sure what the OP was trying to prove, did this little exercise in excel and pulled up the following in 10 refreshes:

1.45
1.57
1.5
1.44
1.49
1.4
1.51
1.51
1.49
1.5

two times a "perfect" 50%, 5 times under, 3 times over... I've farmed Act 3 at MP5 (50%) 13 times and have only found 1 key.


Check how many times you see streaks of 1 or 2. That's the point. The average will always come out to around 1.5, but you'll see a lot of streaks in there.
Edited by Zoid#1297 on 11/4/2012 5:05 PM PST
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Humans will always try to find patterns and explanations in and for anything. And even when factual evidence is given to them ,they will do everything in their power to think there is some sort of conspiracy.

People just think they are entitled to loot.Easy as that. You hardly ever found this sort of behavior in the generation that played D2.
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Humans will always try to find patterns and explanations in and for anything. And even when factual evidence is given to them ,they will do everything in their power to think there is some sort of conspiracy.

People just think they are entitled to loot.Easy as that. You hardly ever found this sort of behavior in the generation that played D2.


I would dare say that those sorts would've showed themselves if there was absolutely no duping or botting at all. Where all godly runes and gear would be extremely hard to find. They would've been QQ'ing from day one.
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