Diablo® III

Possible key drop rate bug?

I know it's hard to test a probability bug, but I seriously think there is. I have hunted 20+ act 2 key wardens in MP3 with 5 stack NV and got nothing. Isn't the drop rate supposed to be 30% in MP3? I understand it's all about RNG, but seriously what's the chance to get nothing in 20 tries?

(1 - 0.3)^20 = 0.0007979226629761189
Edited by piggybox#1525 on 10/22/2012 4:26 PM PDT
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I've been testing a theory...
If you you run to nv5 then kill the KW then exit game and quickly press resume game without changing anything, the KW resets but you cant get the key, as if some exploit safeguard kicked in.

I'm testing the theory on MP5 cause it's hard for me to play at a higher level. I did 8 runs, no key. This does not prove the theory at all but I still find it suspect.

I wonder if someone out there who can do MP10 could just do 2 runs and disprove the theory real quick.
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I have been doing act 4 keyruns on 4/5 monster power level, mostly on 5.
14 runs later nothing has dropped on him, yes I have 5 stacks of valor everytime.

I did some number crunching at the chance of him not dropping the key 14 times in a row is about 1/16000.

This is really making me not want to play the game anymore, I really want to do ubers but I have this wall stopping me and I really hope someone from blizzard would at least respond to this. I understand that I may just be unlucky but its just painful to do runs anymore knowing it won't drop.
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I have a Level 41 Barbarian doing MP lvl 8 often (and if I feel like it, MP lvl 10).

I get the keys with a success rate of 4 out of 5.

These are what I've tried so far:
PgnLvl 7 on MPlvl 0-3: 0/5 drops
PgnLvl 41 on MPlvl 1-3: 0/5 drops
PgnLvl 16 on MPlvl 4-5: 1/5 drops
PgnLvl 16 on MPlvl 6: 2/5 drops
PgnLvl 41 on MPlvl 6-7: 3/5 drops
PgnLvl 11 on MPlvl 6-7: 1/5 drops
PgnLvl 11 on MPlvl 8: 1/5 drops
PgnLvl 41 on MPlvl 8: 4/5 drops
PgnLvl 41 on MPlvl 9-10: 5/5 drops

*all in 3 games each

Try leveling up some more (40+ paragon), and then have the guts to go beyond MP6. For demon hunters who can't survive 1-hits on MP6, get a tanker with you.

Have fun guys.
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I am having a very similar problem with the plans for the infernal machine not dropping but i am told keep trying . i have tried 25 times with full NV and MP 3 and still no stinking plans !!
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Thanks for the responses but please keep to the theory. This involves a specific way of starting the game and run.
I dont doubt the fundamental odds... after all I found about 100 keys and have made several hellfire rings. I'm just wondering about what happens if you just "resume game" real quick after a run and redo the same run. This specific case is making me wonder. Should be easy to disprove... Just try it at MP10 and report back!

For the record, normally I run each act one by one at MP5 no matter the result and indeed, I feel that overall I get 50% success rate.
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I withdraw the theory. I have disproven it myself. All hail the RNG gods.
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