Diablo® III

Act 3 Key Warden drop rate, unbalanced?

It is random, I did 5 runs on MP 3 and got nothing, then i did 2 more runs and on both runs it droped
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85 Worgen Hunter
1985
There's definitely something wrong or those percentages are incorrect. I got key 1 and 2 on the first try. I've done 8 MP4 runs and 4 MP5 runs for key 3 and still no drop. So, the probability that I don't get the key in 12 runs is 0.6^8*0.5^4 = 0.1%.
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I run only MP6 and I get keys from 1st try. Rarely very rarely it fails on MP6.
Believe it or not theres a huge diference between MP5 and MP6.
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i agree with op, i have 6 keys of act 1 and 2, but only 2 keys of act 3.. and did the same amount of runs..
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Community Manager
I am not sure if it is intentional or not, but the act 3 key warden seems to have a much lower drop chance for its key? (...) Can someone tell me if it is supposed to be a different drop rate, or broken, or just Terrible RNG luck?


The Keywardens all have the same innate drop rates. So, as some players in this thread have already mentioned, the variation you're experiencing is due simply to the nature of RNG. The only MP strength in which the keys and organs are guaranteed to drop if you have a full five stacks of Nephalem Valor is MP10 (100% drop chance). Lylirra also posted a bit more about MP and keys here.
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90 Tauren Druid
0
I'm the other way around the Act 3 warden drops 3/4 times, but I went 16 to 1 on the act 2 Keywarden the other night, moving between MP4 and MP5.

Wicked frustrating.
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I'm the other way around the Act 3 warden drops 3/4 times, but I went 16 to 1 on the act 2 Keywarden the other night, moving between MP4 and MP5.

Wicked frustrating.


On the bright side, you didn't get 1 key in 16 runs from the act 3 warden!
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act3 drops alot of keys for me while act 2... trolls all day even at mp6+
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The following exercise will help you understand RNG:

1. Download Openoffice (if you have MS office, use rand instead of randbetween below)
2. Open Calc
3. In the first cell of the spreadsheet, type "=randbetween(1,2)"
4. Copy this cell into cells A1 through A100.
5. In cell B1, type "=average(A1:A100)"

What you have done is simulate key drops for MP 5, 50% chance. Let's call a 1 a key drop and a 2 no key drop. Now go through the list and see how many times you get 5 or 6 in a row. I counted 4 in my 100 times. However, notice your average. It should be somewhere between 1.4 and 1.6, meaning you're rolling 1 just about as often as 2.

If you now copy that first cell down to A1000, and change B1 to be "=average(A1:A1000)" you will get a number that is almost exactly 1.5. But you can visually look down through your columns and see how often you get many in a row. I got a streak of 12 just looking quickly through this list.

Hopefully this helps you to understand that getting 5 or 6 misses in a row on key drops doesn't mean RNG isn't working. In fact, it shows that it IS working.


Original thread here: http://us.battle.net/d3/en/forum/topic/6934364938
Edited by Zoid#1297 on 10/22/2012 3:36 PM PDT
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10/22/2012 01:48 PMPosted by Vaeflare
I am not sure if it is intentional or not, but the act 3 key warden seems to have a much lower drop chance for its key? (...) Can someone tell me if it is supposed to be a different drop rate, or broken, or just Terrible RNG luck?


The Keywardens all have the same innate drop rates. So, as some players in this thread have already mentioned, the variation you're experiencing is due simply to the nature of RNG. The only MP strength in which the keys and organs are guaranteed to drop if you have a full five stacks of Nephalem Valor is MP10 (100% drop chance). Lylirra also posted a bit more about MP and keys [url="http://us.battle.net/d3/en/forum/topic/6893750712#12"]here[/url].


Okay I keep hearing about RNG and the only meaning I can think of that reflects the game play in Diablo 3 is

Receive
Nothing
Good

Because quite frankly that's what this game is about, RNG.
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10 act 3 runs in a row, 0 keys on mp4.
Now when the patch first came out, keys were dropping like mad, even at mp3.

I have 10 act 1 keys and 10 act 2 keys. Working on 10 act 3 keys but the drop rate is horrible. Again, what kind of dumbass RNG are they using?

It's simply getting stupid. I can't even fathom the ones that did 20 runs for a single key.
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10 act 3 runs in a row, 0 keys on mp4.
Now when the patch first came out, keys were dropping like mad, even at mp3.

I have 10 act 1 keys and 10 act 2 keys. Working on 10 act 3 keys but the drop rate is horrible. Again, what kind of dumbass RNG are they using?

It's simply getting stupid. I can't even fathom the ones that did 20 runs for a single key.


What you experienced has a 0.6% chance of happening. This sounds low, but that means about every 200 players run into the same thing.

Not getting one in 20 runs has a 0.003% chance of happening, which means 1 out of every 30,000 people playing should encounter it. Sucks to be that guy.
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I got 0 key in 10 runs from the Act1 Warden... I think this guy doesn't like me. :(
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Okay I keep hearing about RNG and the only meaning I can think of that reflects the game play in Diablo 3 is

Receive
Nothing
Good

Because quite frankly that's what this game is about, RNG.


lol clever.
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10 act 3 runs in a row, 0 keys on mp4.
Now when the patch first came out, keys were dropping like mad, even at mp3.

I have 10 act 1 keys and 10 act 2 keys. Working on 10 act 3 keys but the drop rate is horrible. Again, what kind of dumbass RNG are they using?

It's simply getting stupid. I can't even fathom the ones that did 20 runs for a single key.


What you experienced has a 0.6% chance of happening. This sounds low, but that means about every 200 players run into the same thing.

Not getting one in 20 runs has a 0.003% chance of happening, which means 1 out of every 30,000 people playing should encounter it. Sucks to be that guy.


LOl atleast they are not as unlucky as I am on the A3 warden. so far 57 runs and no keys. Various chars and various mp levels 0-5. And yes I had 5 Nv stacks each and every time, before someone asks. lol but I am 1-2 on act 1 keys and 2-2 on act 2 keys. have only run a4 3 times for plan and no luck on it yet either.
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Key drops aren't the frustrating part for me. I have control over what key warden I go after. Having no control over what portal spawn I get after putting in so much time to get the infernal machine and then ending up with the wrong one is the frustrating part. No organ drop is insult to injury.
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i had a good run on act 2 yesterday on mp 7, 0 for 14 runs
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The RNG is bad for me.
27 MP1 runs and 6 MP2 runs for the plan in act 4.
18 MP2 act 2 runs for 2 keys.
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I get one about 45% of the time MP5
Actually today, im 3/4
Edited by RagingKoala#1984 on 10/22/2012 4:33 PM PDT
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