Diablo® III

Key drop rate for Infernal Machines is broken

Many people complain about poor drop rates for these keys, and of course the "cool kids" come back with QQ and the like, or their lucky two for two drops. However, my brother and I both have done far more than enough runs at MP5 to KNOW the drop rate is broken.

We SHOULD be getting a 50% drop rate, but at best we're getting a 20% drop rate. It usually takes 4 to 8 runs (with +5 NV of course) to get a key to drop at MP5.

Upon using the Infernal Machines, the drops from the ubers seem to be just as bad. Of course we haven't been able to test this as often as the keys, but from what we've seen they seem to have the same broken drop rates.

Please don't listen to the idiots shouting QQ. Test this, or collect the stats. There is ZERO doubt these drop rates are broken, and it is very frustrating. Please fix this.
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Agreed, I did about 6 runs in a row at mp5 with no key, and it's not like this is by any means unusual. My friend did 9 runs in a row with not a single key yesterday at mp6.
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its luck...50% is low, you could do 50 run and never get one, its even
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It's interesting how probability works, isn't it? My girlfriend also did 12 runs after ultimately setting down the game for the night.

So what did I do? Started up the game.

5 keys out of 6 runs on MP5.

--

I learned something about probability in grade school you might be interested in:

Flip a coin 10 times. You may have gotten one side six or seven times while the other only three or four. Now, flip that coin 100 times. You may still have more for one side, but it's likely much closer to 50 than it is 100.

Point being: just because it's a 50% drop doesn't mean you get it every other time. Yes, you're going to have a bad luck spree now and then. Other times, you'll get great luck.

Last night I killed a white mob and it dropped a nice Thing of the Deep, the next pack (within 1 minute) drops a Chantodo's off hand. I had gone two days without a leg or set drop beforehand.

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TL;DR: If you don't like the drop rates on MP5, farm Paragon and equipment until you can do a higher MP so your drop rates are better. (Warning: having done MP9 ubers, I still didn't get 1 of the 3 ring pieces. That's 33%, and therefore I should rage.)
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I didn't make this post just based on a bad streak of a dozen runs or anything lame like that. Just like the people who defended the drop rates claiming it's ok because they got two for two drop for them, you need a lot more statistics then that. Everybody I talked to said the same thing, the drops were broken.

However, it looks like this has been fixed for the last two days. Drops have returned to normal again. I don't believe for one minute there was some crazy bad luck streak going on for everybody. I believe either it was broken, or else Blizzard had nerfed it on purpose. But the drop rates seem normal now, so let's just hope they stay that way.
Edited by Kaede#1664 on 11/9/2012 6:10 PM PST
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I've got 2 level 60 chars and one lvl 51, and only found 3 Legendaries to date, killed every keywarden along the way and never got one key.

The most annoying thing, I played level 0-60 with my Wizard on Monster Power 8 and only found one legendary and still no key EVER. (currently lvl60+1)

This game is unfair as balls.
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well if you were to do some research beforehand, you'd know that keys only drop in inferno, so your character would have to be lvl 60.

You can't find them while leveling up, hence the term 'infernal' machine
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It's interesting how probability works, isn't it? My girlfriend also did 12 runs after ultimately setting down the game for the night.

So what did I do? Started up the game.

5 keys out of 6 runs on MP5.

--

I learned something about probability in grade school you might be interested in:

Flip a coin 10 times. You may have gotten one side six or seven times while the other only three or four. Now, flip that coin 100 times. You may still have more for one side, but it's likely much closer to 50 than it is 100.

Point being: just because it's a 50% drop doesn't mean you get it every other time. Yes, you're going to have a bad luck spree now and then. Other times, you'll get great luck.

Last night I killed a white mob and it dropped a nice Thing of the Deep, the next pack (within 1 minute) drops a Chantodo's off hand. I had gone two days without a leg or set drop beforehand.

--

TL;DR: If you don't like the drop rates on MP5, farm Paragon and equipment until you can do a higher MP so your drop rates are better. (Warning: having done MP9 ubers, I still didn't get 1 of the 3 ring pieces. That's 33%, and therefore I should rage.)


Great for you man, you graduated grade school.

Ya OP the key and ring rates are totally screwed up, especially on certain parts. So many instances of a certain part never dropping or hitting coincidences. I think I'm like 0/10 on my latest attempts to get an act3 key, and don't even get me started on the ring parts I like I'm probably close to 0/10 on the execu part lately.... So frustrating to be doing mp5-9, which can take a very long time, and watch this pseudo random generator hit chains of bad luck. I for one never liked probabilities, lottery draws are for the stupid
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I've done 18 runs on MP5 with no drops. I've gotten one of each key once. Then when I try and collect the keys again to go back in it's been 18 runs with no key seen at all. It's broken for sure.
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I serioulsy think the drop rate at mp5 is bugged. I get way more key drops at mp4 than I do at mp5. I also did 5 runis in a row at mp5 with no key. I never have that problem at lower mp levels.
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Yup, that's for sure. We went for the plan in a4 at mp7 with 3 people (suicide for us but after 6 runs at mp5 we got desperate) and when we didn't get a plan we took the rest of the day and the next one off. Another example - my DH fr is running mp2 alone and he gets a key 5/6 runs. Every. Single. Day. However to counter his ego we went 3 man mp6 a3 runs for change. After a total of 9 runs we got out with 5 keys total. So yeah - it's broken like Titanic.
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back when it first came out i was getting the expected 50% drop rate on mp5 (i farm mp5 also)

but now im getting really bad drop rates, ive experienced around the same 20% drop rate lately.. maybe we are all just unlucky? lol
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Plays an RNG, doesn't know what R stands for.
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Of course its broken.. the drop rate sucks. i often need to kill a warden 12th times to get 1 - 2 keys at mp 5 - 7.
This week killed the act 2 warden 26 times to get ONLY 2 keys at MP5
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I know the feel man, me and my friend just did 5 runs on mp 5, no key, 10 runs mp7, no key we finally said !@#$ it and did mp 10, still no keys :3 its screwed
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Well that is just bad luck cause in the last 10 key runs I have done only 1 did not yield a key, and I did 4 on MP5 1 on MP7 and 5 on MP6
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I have 30 act 3 keys :(

7 act 1 keys

And no act2 keys

Why because !@#$ keys, my hellfire ring is decent enough and i got the act1 keys doing ubers on mp10 when people need dps.

I kill the warden on speed runs mp1-2 to see if he will drop me a legend, instead he drops me the god forsaken key.
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It is a fallacy to think that your chances increase for a drop the more runs you do. The computer doesn't dispense added % increase because you've repeated the same run for x hours. Every play will have the same chance of dropping the goodies as the last and it is perfectly logical to have repeated failures regardless stats or repetitions. How you feel does not change the math.
Besides, if every sonova!@#$%98 could get the sweet drops, those drops would stop being special.
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It's not broken, gawd help me when you jerks come up and gamble. You'll put $10k in game that the max jackpot is $1000 and then cry to me that it should have hit by now... wankers.
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dude you're doing it mp5. just because it says 50% drop rate, doesnt mean you'll get 2 keys on 4 runs.it's 50% drop rate PER run, so either you get it or you dont on the current run. the rates are not broken, it's just pure luck.
Yesterday i went key-hunting on mp7 and got 9 keys in 3 hours.
i only did 11 runs, so 9/11. today i did mp7 again and i did 5 runs and only got 1 key. then i just gave up cause the odds are currently against me.
So it's like gambling, unless you're at 100%, then failure is inevitable
Edited by Deathonate#1338 on 12/22/2012 6:33 PM PST
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