Diablo® III

Key drop rate for Infernal Machines is broken

How stupid are you? Do you even know what 50% drop rate means?
Let's say we do a sample of 1000 runs in act 1 as MP5. So, if the drop rate IS 50%, we would get 500 keys out of the 1000 runs. If we get 50 keys from 1000 runs, then that's a 5% drop rate.
Get it now, Einstein?
Still don't get it? Try playing roulette and throw 100 times red. YOU CAN'T. The longest streak of a roulette table hitting one color is 32 times red. That happened in 1943. This streak hasn't repeated since. Can you comprehend the prcentages now or are you still going to post idiotic comments?
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Posts: 293
However, it looks like this has been fixed for the last two days. Drops have returned to normal again. I don't believe for one minute there was some crazy bad luck streak going on for everybody. I believe either it was broken, or else Blizzard had nerfed it on purpose. But the drop rates seem normal now, so let's just hope they stay that way.


OP you crack me up! "Drops have returned to normal again" You clearly had a streak of bad luck, and now you're back to finding items. Yeah, Blizzard pays a dude to sit and constantly influence drop rates all day everyday...

I dont know if it's the concept of probability thats confusing you or what haha
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I ran like 12 runs at MP3 tonight for the act 1 key and not one! It seems like the third key to make the machine drops at a MUCH LOWER RATE in comparison to the first 2 you get. The third key has always had around a 10% drop rate at best...
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How stupid are you? Do you even know what 50% drop rate means?
Let's say we do a sample of 1000 runs in act 1 as MP5. So, if the drop rate IS 50%, we would get 500 keys out of the 1000 runs. If we get 50 keys from 1000 runs, then that's a 5% drop rate.
Get it now, Einstein?
Still don't get it? Try playing roulette and throw 100 times red. YOU CAN'T. The longest streak of a roulette table hitting one color is 32 times red. That happened in 1943. This streak hasn't repeated since. Can you comprehend the prcentages now or are you still going to post idiotic comments?


You clearly failed your statistics class. You can't just test the drop rate percentage with a sample. You need a large population (even so the result won't be exact but will be very close to the percentage). You can do 1000 key runs at mp9 (90% drop rate) and there is still a chance that you won't find any keys. The proof? Well it's simple math. Lets say that the drop rate is 50%, then there is a 50% chance (.50) that the key won't drop. So if you do the key run 6 times at mp5, there is a 1.56% chance (.5x.5x.5x.5x.5x.5=0.0156) that you won't find any keys. As you do more runs that chance will decrease but it will never be 0.
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dont even bother yourself trying to explain that to such person...

"How stupid are you? Do you even know what 50% drop rate means?" obviusly he has no clue what 50% drop rate means...
the best part is asuming that 1000 runs will get him 500 keys... its just beyond any kind of explanation.
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I also think it's broken, but in a favorable way...

Granted, I'm a sample size of one, but the other night, I got 8 a3 keys in a row on mp3... after the second one dropped I thought something must be up and kept doing it. Then I went into a2 and it continued! So then I thought.. might as well exploit this at mp0, and once I changed the mp, the keys stopped.

Bug, or just dumb luck.. idk. But now I have 12 machines.
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11/09/2012 09:41 AMPosted by HalfGodBro
its luck...50% is low

In maths and statistics, luck doesnt exist. Streaks of 8 misses in a 50/50 flip isnt rare.

Try it yourself. Flip a coin 100 times (might take 5 mins) and you will notice some streaks of 8 heads in a row or 8 tails in a row.
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just to add more fuel to the fire, (btw I strongly believe there is no bug at all and everything is working fine), friends and i did MP9 ubers he got 0 of 3 parts, there is a 1 in 1000 chance that it happens, but it does happen.

Also come on this has to be one of the easiest lines of code for a game this complex, I dont write software code (work with statistical programs though) and its basically just a If-Then statement, if certain conditions are met, then generate a number 1 to 10, if n <= mp level then drop key/part.
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People babble on about randomness in these forums without understanding what they are talking about

I f you perform 100 trials and expect a 50% drop rate, you expect to obtain 50 keys. If you get only 20 keys in 100 trials what does that mean?

Well if you expected 50 keys,the standard deviation of that average result of 50 would be approximately +/- 7 keys. An observation of 20 keys is thus > 4 standard deviations away from the expected result. Statisticians would say that observing a 20% drop rate over 100 trials means that you cn be about 99% confident that the drop rate is NOT 50%. The drop rate is probably in the range of 13 to 27%

The more people who report that they are seeing abnormally low drop rates, the more confidence statisticians would have that the actual random drop rate is well below 50%
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MP5 has been dropping at about 20% for me, while MP6 drops at about 30%. This is about half of what i expected to see. It would be nice if there were some sort of guaranteed 50% drop rate at MP5. I end up doing about 30 or so runs to get three infernal machines, and usually come out empty handed in the end. Since Hellfire rings are bound, they should ease our struggles in obtaining them.
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Can I get multiples of the same key while playing through the same Inferno mode? I got the Key of Destruction from the big goat the first time I tried, but I've done about 20 runs against him since in the same Inferno mode and haven't gotten any more. I don't want to keep fighting him if he isn't even capable of dropping it, that would be a bit silly. I was under the impression you could do this, but it doesn't seem to be working out.

I want to get three of each key just so I can visit each of the three realms. Not trying to get a Hellfire Ring. Am hoping I can get all 9 of the keys from the same Inferno game so I don't have to keep playing through it over and over again.
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Unless you just really really need a hellfire ring asap id save those keys till you can either handle mp10 or come across someone offering free carries with your machines. After doing nothing but mp10 for ubers for a long time anything under that monster power is just a waste in terms of running them for ring parts.

Also true randomness has "clumps" of outcomes so its entirely possible that unless you go to mp10 you may get stuck in a dry spell so long that you literally never see a single ring part or key ever again in your life (you probably will but meh still possible lol).

But yeah long story short get a hellfire ring thats acceptable then forget that anything below mp10 exists for ubers.
Edited by rosshilge#1480 on 1/2/2014 4:42 AM PST
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