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It has been my experience and some of the crew I ran with that Act II has always been stingy with the keys. Act I keys drop like rain followed by Act III. I don't have much experience with ACT IV runs so can't say what it is like even with the chance of getting any key there. Who knows, maybe this is Blizz's way of making up for the "drought in the desert"
Same experience here I farm at mp5 building my NV stacks from Kunne's archive and other areas then going to Dalghur Oasis... I didn't get one at all until recently when I switched routes...
I noticed that the key drops 100% of the time (so far for me anyways) even at mp5 when I get my 5 NV stacks solely from Elites INSIDE Dalgur Oasis, not leaving the area at all.
Because it's such a big area; more often than not you'll find 5 elites there (including the caverns...etc). See if it works for you.
I did 15+ runs with my Wiz both alone and with a group in act II to get a key. We got our NV to 5, I had 550+ MF and we did all the runs on MP 5-9. I have my Wiz up to over 300K damage and close to 60K life with the gems in and what happens is I now get killed twice as much as the people with me that are half my power (also wizards). I have not got a single key yet with this configuration, they have got plenty. I found, it seems, that the stronger you are with damage, the less things come, this means I see keys, legendary and set items very rarely now, stronger is not better, it seems the game sees this and makes it 5x harder for you.
I tried something today just to see what would happen, I went in with my DH who has 1/3 of my wizards power to get a key, got a drop the first time.
Somethings up with the key drop rate, the numbers just don't fit the pattern people are giving, it's that simple.
All you tin foil hat thinkers...
Drop chance for keys from wardens, given the fact you have 5 NV, is:
mp0 5% mp1 10% mp2 20% (....) mp10 100%
You cannot calculate a % of your "luck" on 15 runs.. that's no how statistics work.
If you do 1000 runs on mp3 you will end up having around 30% drop rate, 15 runs is just too small test group to make such calculations.
Oh and for the person saying he didn't get a key @ mp10? Stop lying or get NV5 first you nugget!
I think you dont understund basis of probability. Lets assume that you try 20 times to kill keywarden with NV5 on MP4. You have 40% chance to get key everytime you kill him. Every 'run' is independent so you can calculate overall chance of obtaining at least one key as: (1 - (1-0.4)^20). It gives you 99,9% chance to get key. There is something wrong with those monsters.
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