Diablo® III

Blizzard, Please learn math

I'm not sure if they understand percentages, but 20 runs on MP3 for act3 warden key and no key does not equal 20%.

"Sure but it evens out" people would say.

No because I'm also on run 15 for key 1 and run 21 for key 2 both at MP2 now.

And then there's no point doing the ubers unless you can run mp10 to guarantee the hellfire ring components.

I understand the point is to add content to the game, but all this for a ring that MAY and probably will NOT roll decent stats is just boring.
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The probability of getting anywhere between 0 and 2 keys in 21 runs of MP2 is 17.9%. That's really not that low at all.

Maybe it is you who needs to learn statistics.

EDIT: My bad, you said MP3. The probability is now 2.7%. Okay, so you're unlucky.
Edited by Bottle#1907 on 11/17/2012 2:09 AM PST
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do you have 5 NV stack? lol

20 consecutive run with no key is 0.07%
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Iv never seen a key if it makes you feel better. :(
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It's just a side effect of the many people playing.

- There are thousands of people playing
- Expected probability on some of these bad luck occurrences should happen once in thousands of instances
- The individuals who encounter this bad luck are much more likely to write about it

Combine these attributes and you get your answer.
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I love when people use math as an insult to blizzard when have little to no understanding of statistics.
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11/17/2012 02:56 AMPosted by ghondon
I love when people use math as an insult to blizzard when have little to no understanding of statistics.
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do you have 5 NV stack? lol

20 consecutive run with no key is 0.07%


Actually it's 0.08% (if you know how to round).

But he reports 2 keys in 21 runs. That is 2.15%. (getting anywhere between 0 and 2 is 2.7%)
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Come back and complain when you have no keys from 200 consecutive runs or something like that. Seriously...
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do you have 5 NV stack? lol

20 consecutive run with no key is 0.07%


Actually it's 0.08% (if you know how to round).

But he reports 2 keys in 21 runs. That is 2.15%. (getting anywhere between 0 and 2 is 2.7%)


Yeah, since getting a legendary drop chance is way lower than 2.7%, then people should come to forums and complain every time a legendary drops for them, since it's "broken" :D
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Yep. Go back to school and learn statistics (not probability)
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11/17/2012 02:56 AMPosted by ghondon
I love when people use math as an insult to blizzard when have little to no understanding of statistics.
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Why do people try to farm keys on MP2 and then come running to the forums to complain that they aren't finding any? No $hit. It's MP2. You're wasting your time.

"And then there's no point doing the ubers unless you can run mp10 to guarantee the hellfire ring components."

Wrong.
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and here i was thinking the probability of getting a key was not based on the number of runs you do but just that one run.

i have 3keys from act2 and 2 each from act1 and act3. got em all playing mp2. number of runs? 10. lucky? of course :D

@Vinny: exactly what i was talking about as well
Edited by demonknight#1139 on 11/17/2012 5:14 AM PST
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11/17/2012 04:50 AMPosted by KemosabeTBC
Yep. Go back to school and learn statistics (not probability)


+1 This guy^^.

OP, Think of it this way. Every time you make an MP2 run, that 20% chance is like saying Blizzard picks 2 numbers between 1-10... let's say... 2 & 7. That's your 20%. Then you roll a 10 sided die (singular of dice), and if you roll any number besides a 2 or 7... no key... get it?

TL;DR - It's not as easy as 20%... It's 20% in ONE RUN... not 20% of the time. It's really easy to go long periods with no key. I've personally done 11 MP5 runs with no key before. All I hear is QQ. Keep trying.
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I'm not sure if they understand percentages, but 20 runs on MP3 for act3 warden key and no key does not equal 20%.


Actually if you think about it the correct way, it basically boils down to this:
MP3 is supposed to be 30% chance with 5nv.

20 runs:
1) 30% chance
2) 30% chance
3-20) all are 30% chance.

This does NOT mean that out of 20 runs you should have a certain amount of keys.
This DOES mean that EACH run there's a 30% chance of finding a key.

How does this simple logic elude so many of you.


Ill explain how the simple logic is eluding most of the forums. They are probably 10.
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my record is 15 runs on mp5 act 3 not key. 16th run was on mp3 and it dropped lol. Can be pretty frustrating sometimes.
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It's just a side effect of the many people playing.

- There are thousands of people playing
- Expected probability on some of these bad luck occurrences should happen once in thousands of instances
- The individuals who encounter this bad luck are much more likely to write about it

Combine these attributes and you get your answer.


Blizzard is still at fault even with your argument. Players who will be unlucky will inevitably occur due to their poorly designed D3 RNG.

I say that D3's RNG is poorly designed because those kind of unlucky players can be easily prevented by encoding some mechanics which increases a player's magic find for every in-game minutes so that there will be "no players left behind" as there is a guaranteed drop after some predetermined number of playtime/runs. My proposed mechanic is actually very similar to the sharpshooter passive of DH in which you have a guaranteed critical strike to occur within 32 seconds.

Simple as that but Blizzard employees are just too lazy for this.
Edited by starlight#6447 on 11/17/2012 6:20 AM PST
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