Diablo® III

Key drop rate blue confirm this

BS!
I've been tracking my record so far, I done 46 runs against keyward and no drop so far on MP3.

your telling me I've 30% drop chance and missed it 46 times? Come on blizz, don't lie to us.


And I've gotten 5 keys out of 9 runs on mp3. Your bad luck is helping other people in the RNG game, so keep it up bro!
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the only times i ever found any keys was mp0. Up the Mp and they just dont drop for me.
got a pretty decent(for my tastes) ring first try. had close to max magic find, regen, vit and gold find, my wiz uses it but im thinking about making it a follower ring, besides that im done with the grind for hellfires
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I am a DH who fams MP 5-8. I usually settle on MP 7 runs. I usually have no problem finding a key each run or every other run. But seeming how as though I farmed 3 MP7 runs yesterday, and just did 2 MP7 runs just now and 3 MP6 runs and din't get one key...leads me to believe blizzard took drop rates down or even has less odds on certain servers, I dunno but blizzard sure does know how to mkae a guy want to blow his brains out with his manticore.

Heres the kicker. i decided "hey Ill do a MP8 run"...right when I was about to drop the warden...the game freezes. Good job on the awesome game blizzard....
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12/02/2012 11:11 PMPosted by HerbalMental
once, a set pieces dropped and no keys I was like.. lool woot


I had champs drop set gear for monks & dh on champs while trying to reach NV5 for Keywarden, im not saying "NOTHING" drops for me - im saying KEYS DONT DROP!
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actually with a 1/3 rate (~33.33%) which is a bit more than a 30% but for the sake of argument if it really was then failing to find a key with those odds is 1/8,862,938,119,652,501,095,929

Edited for = the true odds of not finding a 30% drop 46 times is ~1 / 1,128,294,010,969,816,060,532,518
Edited by Azerias#1610 on 12/3/2012 5:02 AM PST
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dont care about this key ubers really boring fix this drop good rare or legend my brother play on EU he say we have bether drop lOl
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iv done it about 10 times over last 3 days and got 2 keys of act 3
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BS!
I've been tracking my record so far, I done 46 runs against keyward and no drop so far on MP3.

your telling me I've 30% drop chance and missed it 46 times? Come on blizz, don't lie to us.


just simple question. did you have 5 stacks of NV buff? were you running hell instead of inferno?

You don't have to answer this, just admit your stupidity.
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BS!
I've been tracking my record so far, I done 46 runs against keyward and no drop so far on MP3.

your telling me I've 30% drop chance and missed it 46 times? Come on blizz, don't lie to us.


You need five stacks of NV or there's 0% chance it'll drop.
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mp0 = 5%
mp1 = 10%
mp2 = 20%
mp3 = 30%
mp4 = 40%
mp5 = 50%
mp6 = 60%
mp7 = 70%
mp8 = 80%
mp9 = 90%
mp10 = 100%

Even this is wrong i farm 5-6 mp for keys and thje drop is like 40%.
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mp0 = 5%
mp1 = 10%
mp2 = 20%
mp3 = 30%
mp4 = 40%
mp5 = 50%
mp6 = 60%
mp7 = 70%
mp8 = 80%
mp9 = 90%
mp10 = 100%

Even this is wrong i farm 5-6 mp for keys and thje drop is like 40%.


Sample Size? It better be over 1000 key runs to even be close to being accurate.
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I concur. I don't have access to the code, but having some programming experience, the RNG doesn't seem to be matching theoretical rates at times. I used to do key runs on MP3 (10+) with no results. I changed to MP4/5 and it worked much better but still not 40-50%. Up to MP7, and the drop rates are more consistent at around every 2 out of 3 runs. Also, I ran 9 organ runs the other night, 3 boss pairs on MP6, and then 6 on MP5 and I got 2 organs. My friend got 1. There are clearly periods of droughts when the drop rates seem bugged. I just stop playing for a while when that happens.

So to me, the "10% increase" doesn't seem consistent at the lower MP levels in reality and I've experienced these "droughts" myself. 10 runs at MP3 was glitchy for me and I think 46 runs with no key at MP3 much more so. It seems like the increase in chance to get a key goes up more exponentially than linearly at times with MP levels.

I ran at MP10 for a guaranteed key once and that does seem to be working just fine. No RNG to interfere with the key drop rate :]. It just takes a lot longer to do.

This is a long shot, but Blizzard, can you release actual key runs vs key drops for the different MP levels to help us see the bigger picture?
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omfg comoon bliz 20 run for keys no legend no good rare wTF is thats mean
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mp0 = 5%
mp1 = 10%
mp2 = 20%
mp3 = 30%
mp4 = 40%
mp5 = 50%
mp6 = 60%
mp7 = 70%
mp8 = 80%
mp9 = 90%
mp10 = 100%

Even this is wrong i farm 5-6 mp for keys and thje drop is like 40%.


Sample Size? It better be over 1000 key runs to even be close to being accurate.
A sample size of 100 runs is more then accurate. if you are running MP4, you then should get 40 keys or close to 40 keys out of 100 runs. If that is not the case then Blizzard has some tweaking to do. It could be anywhere from 35 keys to 45 keys out of 100 runs just to give Blizzard a 5%+/- break. If you only get 20 keys out of 100 runs, then there is something very wrong with Blizzards coding.

I should also add if someone is getting 60 keys or more out of MP4 then once again there is a big problem.

I think the biggest problem is, first you are never logging into the same server each key run, so right there, the numbers get thrown off, secondly that means the RNG is different on each server. It could be quite possible that his miss of 46 keys could be quite possible. Now if you logged into the same server each and every single time, there would be less of a chance that the numbers would be so askew.
Edited by TheDoctor#1731 on 12/3/2012 10:14 AM PST
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and at that moment all this randomness can shove up your !@# :)
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BS!
I've been tracking my record so far, I done 46 runs against keyward and no drop so far on MP3.

your telling me I've 30% drop chance and missed it 46 times? Come on blizz, don't lie to us.


just simple question. did you have 5 stacks of NV buff? were you running hell instead of inferno?

You don't have to answer this, just admit your stupidity.
It is people like you that add to the problem. Just a warning though, I have been banned from posting on the forums for less then what you just said to this guy. I use a general term of the R word and got banned for a month. Be smart with what you say on the forums or you will lose your right to post on them. Calling someone else stupid because it makes you feel better about yourself or thinks it makes yourself look cool, is nothing but lame and a great way to get banned for a while on the forums. Just saying.
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Key drops are fine - act2 warden drops less though.
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Sample Size? It better be over 1000 key runs to even be close to being accurate.
A sample size of 100 runs is more then accurate. if you are running MP4, you then should get 40 keys or close to 40 keys out of 100 runs. If that is not the case then Blizzard has some tweaking to do. It could be anywhere from 35 keys to 45 keys out of 100 runs just to give Blizzard a 5%+/- break. If you only get 20 keys out of 100 runs, then there is something very wrong with Blizzards coding.

I should also add if someone is getting 60 keys or more out of MP4 then once again there is a big problem.

I think the biggest problem is, first you are never logging into the same server each key run, so right there, the numbers get thrown off, secondly that means the RNG is different on each server. It could be quite possible that his miss of 46 keys could be quite possible. Now if you logged into the same server each and every single time, there would be less of a chance that the numbers would be so askew.


Same server? How does that factor in? Why not just do 10 runs.. according to your logic, you should get a key 3, 4 or 5 times. If you get it 2 or 6 times, Blizzard is broken. (rolls eyes at fuzzy math)
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I think I see the problem here.. people think that the server somehow keeps track of the key drops, and if you're on MP4, you'll get 40 keys if you run it 100 times. The server doesn't keep track of what your last drop rolled.. it's a fresh 40% chance each time. This means, that out of 100 runs, you might get less than 40 keys, because, (wait for it)......... You only have a 40% chance it'll drop every time!!!
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Chi square. Is it possible to toss a coin 100 times to get heads 100 times? Unlikely but yes. I have even spun a coin and not have it fall over -- heads, tails.
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