Diablo® III

Ceilings, why they are awesome

I've previously made a topic commenting on how keys/organs seem to not be truly random. Diablo 3 seems to have abnormally bad or good streaks, I have no idea why.

I've worked a system now where I keep doing a run on mp7 till I stop getting keys.Sometimes I can get 6-9 keys in a row doing that. As soon as I don't get a key I change to mp6, more often than not I end up getting really good streaks that way.

I know that sounds really stupid but it has worked for me. If I go against it then I seem to get abnormally bad streaks like.... no key five times in a row on mp7... 1/6 organs on mp8. Yesterday I got one key in four mp7 runs so I switched to mp6 and ended up getting 5/5 keys.

My conclusion from all that is that the formula determining the "random" droprate of keys is far from random and prone to streaks. What most people don't understand is that very few games employ a truely random system, it's always based on a certain formula. D3's formula seems to love streaks. I could be wrong but I'm just sharing my personal experience and how I avoid getting horrible streaks. I surprised myself when it actually worked.
Edited by hampster#1586 on 12/3/2012 8:46 AM PST
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12/03/2012 08:01 AMPosted by Fireblade
14 runs and 0 keys.


5 NV before killing keywarden? o.O? Even at MP5 0/14 is a little extreme . . . ><:


This.

OP, one of 3 things happened:

1) You probably didn't have your 5 stacks of NV.
2) Your MP level was reset lower (doesn't this happen inadvertently somehow? I always check).
3) Your story is missing key details (the polite way of saying your story is BS).
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''I thought you said you weren't listening to softcore players?

Again, you have the same chances to find keys in hardcore as you do in softcore. So your point is pretty moot.''
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I am trying make a point that falls on deaf ears.

Regarding chances to find keys, NO in fact upping the difficulty in softcore which adds no risk whatsoever to your character does in fact up the odds of finding keys. It is not the same as the difficulties that hc players face and we FIND KEYS! Don't you understand?
Edited by Incoherent#1536 on 12/3/2012 8:51 AM PST
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how are you running for keys? did you just kill 5 elites quickly then proceed to smash xah rith immediately? I know if I do this way I get very bad luck with keys.

I usually do xah rith last after an entire alk run and have collected more than 40 keys so far ranging from MP 1 to MP 6, in fact mp 5 had a very high drop rate for me when doing this method (around 80%)

Could you try mp 5 again this time do a quick run first, clear core arreat -> tower 1 -> rakkis -> fields -> keeps 2-3 then stonefort
Edited by Hak#1935 on 12/3/2012 8:56 AM PST
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I don't understand what everyone's problem is. .... Learn to play guys!

The Op's thread has socialist undertones.


I lol'd. Thanks for that. :)

1) You probably didn't have your 5 stacks of NV.
2) Your MP level was reset lower (doesn't this happen inadvertently somehow? I always check).
3) Your story is missing key details (the polite way of saying your story is BS).


1) I had 5 stacks. It was Act 1 and I was running Highland crossing and grabbing the couple elites above ground and the cave there to fill up.
2) nope. Set it to 5 and stayed there. Each run had a nice little (5) in the corner. As well, MP0 and MP5 are a little different difficulty wise. Would be really hard to miss.
3) please do elaborate on what details it's missing. I'll be happy to fill in the blanks.

As for 40 being low for legendaries, it was picked at semi random. Knowing VotA has 7-9 bosses, I loosely based it on that. Obviously, this can be increased.
Edited by Conneri#1958 on 12/3/2012 9:02 AM PST
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12 runs mp 5 no keys game is broken and rng is bull crap
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12/03/2012 09:03 AMPosted by delwood
12 runs mp 5 no keys game is broken and rng is bull crap


Do you run with a group that shares portals? Usually in hc when we run power3 for keys at least one member of the team will find a key(more often than not) which actually matches the odds. We then combine our resources and have four players join a game , three different guys open a port(we alternate being the 4th guy who doesnt open one) and maximize our resources. It gets it done.!

And yes, during our runs, we all have bad luck streaks but we are persistent.
Edited by Incoherent#1536 on 12/3/2012 9:10 AM PST
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i had this same problem, and i was getting tired of it. so what i did was lower the monster power to 1, and i stopped going after the keys(at lest that's what i tell myself) odds are, that keys won't drop, so i don't expect to get one! but for some reason, the keys seem to drop more frequently for me on mp1, than mp5. it takes me less time to go through my farming route to get the 5 stack, and hit the keywarden locale. more keywarden kills per 10-15 min. slot time of play= better chance at keys. even if it is at lower monster power. it's not a sure fire way of course, but i have 4 machines now, and 8 left over keys from act 3. yeah, that one dropped a lot more than the others for some reason...
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This is all really based under the assumption that SC players are going to die while farming keys, making it "easier" to obtain them. When in fact, many players don't die in SC while farming for keys. So again, your posts are pretty irrevelant.


Most players do die in SC when keyhunting though. I'm sure there is many overgeared players that don't but most do... Keyhunting is done on mp5-8 so that isn't exactly abnormal.

That said I don't really see why hardcore is relevant to this discussion. Yes it is much harder to progress in hardcore but that's nothing new.
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i bet u didnt try mp 8 and then mp 9 before on uber run plus keywarden 1... 0/4 on mp 8 and 0/4 on mp 8 and 9.. now figure the stats... i didnt come crying to the forum because the rng are against me, its just so now go run ur next key because u have exactly the same chance as u have before, 50%
Edited by Easter#1808 on 12/3/2012 9:16 AM PST
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12/03/2012 05:51 AMPosted by Conneri
That's a 1/16000 chance roughly.


I finally figured it out! Clearly waypoints must be powered by an Infinite Improbability Drive. Therefore, every time someone uses a waypoint, something extremely unlikely like this happens. Of course, it also works the other way as well. Since legendary drops are so rare, if we could figure out the exact sequence of waypoints to use, we could guarantee that someone will get a legendary drop. This would even explain why legendary drop rates seem to go up right after every patch, since everyone is logging back on and using a waypoint to start their next run at about the same time.
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''
So...what you are just trying to say that HC is more "risky" when you are loot hunting because you run the risk of losing everything? Again, going off that, you are making a completely irrevelant point.

You are trying to say that is it more "challenging" to find keys in HC. When in fact, it's not. If you are farming for keys, in HC Inferno mode at MP0, the game difficulty and the drop rates are going to be exactly the same as if you were playing in softcore. The actual difficulty of the game, nor the drop rates suddenly increase just because you play HC.

Running the risk of losing everything if you die doesn't dictate the actual difficulty setting of the game. Inferno in HC, is just as difficult in SC.''

@gormak

1. No, that is not the point i am conveying. You are focusing on that though.
2. Your second paragraph is correct but yet again, it ignores my point. Also please do not try to tell me what I am saying. Simply read it in it's entirety and quit picking things out of it that you assume are the thesis of my paragraph. Didn't you take English101?
3. Although this is not what the thread is about and you seem to be fixated on it, I will say that inferno on Sc is in fact not the same as In Hc. I do not lose respect or mean anything negative towards any style of player as I am not a judgmental person but yeah the difficulty is different. Not game coding-wise or setting-wise but on the players side of things he does have to do things differently or he will be remaking.It is much faster to faceroll a difficulty with all offensive gear and no regard for safety. Any objections to this?
Edited by Incoherent#1536 on 12/3/2012 9:30 AM PST
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''By the way, you misspelled my name in every post. Good job.''

My names Incoherent in case you didn't know. And i know that it doesn't have anything to do with the topic at hand but you brought it up in your previous post so i replied to it.

I am not talking about difficulty in general, I am talking about key-finding efficiency which is the thesis of my argument towards the entitlement in this thread. Everyone wants freebies but would that really be fun if everyone found the exact amount as everyone else. I think that players who are willing to put in the time should be the ones rewarded for such time.
Edited by Incoherent#1536 on 12/3/2012 9:47 AM PST
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10 mp5 and no key? pfft that's nothing bro.

I done 20 mp7 + 1 mp9 and still got not key. that's 0.3^20*0.1 = 3.48e-12. That's roughly the same odd of winning the NY state lottery twice in a row!

Seriously after that series of bull crap, i'm never farming key below mp10 ever again.

On the other hand, after that !@#$ streak i join a public game and got 5 legendary in a single game. 4 of these are crap, one of them is 40mil+ item. So i guess it all balance out in the end?
Edited by d35366#1931 on 12/3/2012 9:46 AM PST
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10 mp5 and no key? pfft that's nothing bro.

I done 20 mp7 + 1 mp9 and still got not key. that's 0.3^20*0.1 = 3.48e-12. That's roughly the same odd of winning the NY state lottery twice in a row!

Seriously after that series of bull crap, i'm never farming key below mp10 ever again.

On the other hand, after that !@#$ streak i join a public game and got 5 legendary in a single game. 4 of these are crap, one of them is 40mil+ item. So i guess it all balance out in the end?


Regarding balancing out.

One player might farm a dozen rings that roll crappy stats and some guy could farm only one ring and roll it better than any of his friends 12. That's randomness. I love it.
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Do you run with a group that shares portals? Usually in hc when we run power3 for keys at least one member of the team will find a key(more often than not) which actually matches the odds.

And yes, during our runs, we all have bad luck streaks but we are persistent.


I know this wasn't directed at me but I do actually run in a group frequently. However, my partner struggles some on MP5 and in this particular morning, he wasn't on.

As for the persistant part, that is the reason for the change. There is no reason that a game should become that kind of frustration where you are forced to 'persist' through not enjoying it. You should enjoy it more sometimes, but the worst it can be should be set at an acceptable level. Currently, that level is infinity. That is the problem. This wouldn't even change the average, just the max chance.
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