Diablo® III

Key Drop Rate

ok, So I'm going to try to explain this situation using math.

So at mp7 drops rate per run is 70%.

I'm going to assume that the drop rate for each run is independent from each other.

So with this assumption.

the probability of get zero keys after 2 runs is .3*.3, so this equal to 9%, so 9% percent of the time over 2 runs you will get 0 keys. (on average)

now we do 7 runs. So the probability of getting 0 key over 7 runs is: .3*.3*.3*.3*.3*3*.3 =0.02% so this is pretty rare event.(but still possible). the interpretation of this is. If you do 10 000 batch of 7 runs. 2 times you will get 0 keys, (on average)

Now this dude say he got 2 key out of 20 runs. The probability of such an event is. 20!/(18!*2!)*0.7*0.7*(0.3)^18 = 0.0000036% , now that is pretty rare!!!(but still possible)

Hope this help understanding the situation...
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ok, So I'm going to try to explain this situation using math.

So at mp7 drops rate per run is 70%.

I'm going to assume that the drop rate for each run is independent from each other.

So with this assumption.

the probability of get zero keys after 2 runs is .3*.3, so this equal to 9%, so 9% percent of the time over 2 runs you will get 0 keys. (on average)

now we do 7 runs. So the probability of getting 0 key over 7 runs is: .3*.3*.3*.3*.3*3*.3 =0.02% so this is pretty rare event.(but still possible). the interpretation of this is. If you do 10 000 batch of 7 runs. 2 times you will get 0 keys, (on average)

Now this dude say he got 2 key out of 20 runs. The probability of such an event is. 20!/(18!*2!)*0.7*0.7*(0.3)^18 = 0.0000036% , now that is pretty rare!!!(but still possible)

Hope this help understanding the situation...


Agreed. Thumbs up.

I'd like to add though, that 2 keys out of 20 runs at MP7 is so improbable, that in the event that it does happen should indicate that something is up (either glitch/bug, or Blizzard is indeed messing with drop rates).
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I'm on a really awful string of MP5 runs. I'm batting about 1 for 16.
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I dont think Mp10 is 100%- i did mp10 last night twice with no key drop.. lame
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^^^ how do you manage MP10 (able to get 5 stack) and still kill KW?
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It's interesting that the official comment is that MP0 is 5% probability drop for a key from the warden, I am now grinding daily on MP3 and MP4, for skilling purposes but it appears that the gold only increases as per dmg potential of the mobs and that there are more of them. I see you as fortunate to get keys at all. I have never looted a key when I've killed the Key Wardens in every place they can be found. I prefer Nekarat although I do other KWs.

I have to go with what, Benjy has to say, it's a coin flip if at MP5 it's 50% yes or 50% no in each instance you grind and kill the KW.
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90 Worgen Druid
3265
Posts: 207
People are throwing around a lot of numbers and trying to look at key drop rates from a perspective of probability. I invite you to read my post which gives an in depth analysis of the statistics relating to key drop rates:

http://us.battle.net/d3/en/forum/topic/7384308540
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Potato
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I think there might a bug in the droo rate if user not create a new task but continuing previous task. I have severval same exprience, no keys for 10 runs on MP6. I changed the task and create a new one to play, the key drop rate become normal agian.

It not happend for every continuing tasks but it did happen.
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Some key runs you get lucky and some you don't. I usually run on power6, decent chance and it's a pretty fast run. At least your having bad luck with the keys. I did full infernal machine run on power8 and didn't loot 1 organ..
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I run on mp4

when keys were first released i was getting great ratios (3 per 5 runs approx) now my string of bad luck comes 1 in the past 8 runs but i wont cry i will just wait till my luck comes round again!!!

Still dropping 1 legendary per game or two so i'm happy!!
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I've noticed a large drop in key drops too. I do alkaizer runs on MP2 and stop by the keywarden afterwards to try for a key. Right now I'm on 26 runs without a key. It used to be every 4-5 runs on MP2 per key for me. I am not really complaining since I am not doing the runs specifically for the keys and I've gotten a legendary or two in almost every single run since the keys stopped dropping.
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Gotta be all luck man, I mean.. the other day I had 2 A2 ina row, went over to A1 BAM first try and A3 might of been 5. On another day, whole day of runs with only one key. I've done maybe....8 organ runs and I've gotten two so far. I'm not as advanced as you guys on mp5 let alone mp9 but I'm on a steady mp3 and mp2 with my friend and hey man, drops arent bad. Not complaining...yet lol but no seriously..some days im like DAMN got a lot of keys..other days I get maybe 1 organ run or 2 tops ya know
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yea key chances are like that and all low probability but look how many people run and 7 and same occurance if its that rare whys it happening to alot of people and even people 100% drop not getting a drop whats probability of that??
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then again might depend how it all works see if your in a group of 4 and its a 7 percent drop rate are the other 3 constantly getting it you might be the 25% of the group or is it worked individually
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seems to work like that for me like mp5 2 of us got it 2 didn't multiple times i usually get lucky
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Just ran all 3 acts with another friend (just the two of us)

Hit A1 MP2. I got a key, they didn't.
Hit A2 MP2, I got a key again, and they didn't.
HIt A3 on MP3 and we both got a key.

Talk about STRANGE. I was baffled that I even got keys, considering the MP level.
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Thought experiment:

What is the probability that someone will post or otherwise communicate if they perceive they are receiving either the expected rate of key drops or more?
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The key will always drop on MP10.
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