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people need to learn what the percentages actually mean, if you do a run on mp5 with a 50% chance and dont get a key, that doesnt mean another mp5 run betters your chances.. its still 50%.. its like a coin flip, if you flip it and get heads, doesnt mean the next flip has a better chance to get tails... its still 50/50...
Logical Fallacy: Argument to aggrandio ad absurdum
Out of a given sample size, the odds of repeatedly seeing the same result (no key) when the odds are in your favor diminish with each successive attempt.
The argument "its RNG" can be applied to anything by increasing the supposed sample size. I say "I did ten runs and got no keys", you say "but people run millions of runs a day, someone had to do ten runs and get no keys".
By that logic you can add infinitely more to the supposed sample size and fatuously say that nothing is ever statistically significant.
Your argument dismisses without evidence, therefore it can be dismissed without evidence.
You guys are scaring me. I thought it was only me, and that once my bad luck streak had run its course, I might have something good to look forward to...evidently not.
I just began farming keys this week. (I was discouraged by Diablo 3, finally decided to come back and give it another try.)
My own personal experience?
MP3 -- 7 runs -- 1 key found.
MP5 -- 3 runs -- 0 key found.
Yes, NV 5, Inferno, and all that. ;)
I would figure that 3 keys would be reasonable from all that.
ItSure would be nice to find an item I could actually use on my character. So sick of looking at a monk item with barbarian or wizard specs on it.
Which leads to the in-game reality (IGR) question: Why would any game NPC create a magical item, say, monk fists, that have INTELLIGENCE on them?
It wouldn't happen.
Edited by DrLeechcraft#1435 on 1/10/2013 3:45 PM PST
Again, this discourages me, a new key hunter. I have been told that it's a 100% certainty at MP10.
COULD IT BE POSSIBLE THE KEYS ARE DROPPING...BUT REMOTELY? BACK WHERE THE KEYWARDEN STARTED, NOT WHERE HE DIED?
Drop rates havent changed? This is the first popular topic about key rates since keys were implemented months ago, suddenly nobody is getting keys? A few of the people on my list that were playing quit over the last week or so, the last thing they were saying is how suddenly keys dont drop. "10 mp5 runs no key, disgust" now they dont even login. Even I feel the lack of key drops, and I too am about to quit in disgust. I had 10 act1 keys a week after keys were introduced, the drop rate was accurate if you did 10 mp5 key runs youd get 4-6 keys. Now if you do 10 mp5 key runs you will get 0-2 keys.
What I'm afraid is about to happen, is that Blizzard might be alarmed at the proliferation of rings out there, and they might have decided to limit the potential supply of them by tightening up on the RNG a bit. "Loose slots," anyone? Now they're tighter.
And my fear is this: I'm a RETURNED player. Just came back, and here we are with some interesting game content: Key Wardens, keys, Infernal Machine, Hellfire Rings, ooooh, ahhh, this was so interesting to me that now I'm interested once again. As a returned player.
But I may have returned too late. Just as they're about to nerf the whole thing, as it's flooding their game economy with Hellfire rings. My own bad luck, right?
Well, it will only discourage those who returned late. How often does this happen in games to drive people away?
I have a theory, which is probably not true, but the probability still exists. What if that percentage, wait for it!
GENIUS! Maybe he's got the explanation.
I never got a key as a Wizard when my Hydra made the kills. (MP3, 6 attempts)
I got a key with my Demon Hunter (MP3, 1 attempt). I made the kill, not my templar.
I never got a key as a Witch Doctor (MP5, 3 attempts), my minions made the kill.
Could this be the explanation?
Every time this comes up it turns into a discussion of probability and confirmation bias. I don't doubt that drop rates haven't been changed, but my own experience getting keys has been so awful that I'm wondering if there is a bug in the formulas that determine whether keys drop.
I don't think it does; I considered that, so I kept track.
Just to let you knkow: in each of my runs, I never entered the area until I'd gotten my 5NV stacks in other areas first. I entered the area with 5NV every time.
I don't normally reply, or buy into these "tinfoil hat" threads... i'm starting to believe this one. Today i've done 3 MP6 runs, 3 mp7 and 1 MP9 with no key drops. I did happen to find my 10th F%#$ING Warmonger during that mp9 run. Similar luck last night but i did find 3 out of like 10 runs doing mp7.
I am on a cold streak too. Probably about 3 for 15 on mp 4 during past 1.5 weeks
I think the drops are just streaky. It seems like on a given week my personal drop rate is 20% above avg or 20% below avg, never at the average. I think it balances out.
When hot I will get 4 or 5 keys in a row at mp 3 and 4. When cold it seems impassible to get a key.
Same thing goes for organ drops. Sometimes paragon leveling seems to change my luck.
In fact, pesudo-randomizing is even more closely related to the chance value. There's no way to get true randomness in programming. If not, there's no way to debug for dice rolls in game.
The idea that they tell you it's streak of bad luck is so that they don't need to check they codes for any defects in their randomizing engine. It works for most anyway according to themselves.
Say 90% chance of dropping, and 100 players out of 200 never gotten anything, they still can say the 100 belongs to the 10%. I strongly doubt they have any stress testing or QA in any kind.
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