Diablo® III

key drop rate actually far lower now

i have noticed this since the last patch. i run tons of runs a day and after the last patch the drop rate is decreasing alarmingly. in the past week or so i have been playing mp3 (on hardcore) just for the speed (over mp4, as after 4 mp4 runs i still had no key). i started keeping track with my main group and we noticed the for mp3 is actually much closer to 1/9 rather than 1/3 as it should be (or just under 1/3). this is after like 50 runs or so. (got 2 keys myself over about 18 runs of mp3 and 5 runs of mp4)
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Variance for the win. Did 3 runs last night on mp1 got 3 keys, so ur theory is flawed.
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yup. cuz he has been isolated for too long i think. sometimes 8 runs = 0 key and sometimes 3 runs = 3 key. totally random.
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We were running as a group of 3, doing MP 4.
One guy got his first key on the 10th run.
At that point, I had 7 keys, and another guy had 6.

Add it together and our hit rate is 14/30, which is well above the 40% chance of key.

If we had been running independently, 2 of us would been averaging 65% (which is 62.5% better than the expected drop) while the other guy would have been cursing (well, he was still cursing!) and blaming a drop rate nerf.. 9 runs without a key! OMGWTFBLIZZ!!
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i usually do mp6 for keys, last weekend (the last time i farmed) i did key runs for 5 hours. usually about 15mins per run. that means at most i did 20 runs, more likely 16 or 17 as i did not rush.
i got only 4 keys.
20 * 60% =/= 4 :(

then on monday i ran a friend through ubers that had never done them (on mp3)
and got 2 organs AND a key.

random is random, but yea i tend to reach for my tin-foil hat a lot when playing this game too...
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for the sake of argument lets say you were at MP5. so you have a 50% drop CHANCE.
it's the same for playing heads or tails, which is also 50% for heads and 50% for tails, or just 50/50.

Do you think that over 2 runs, you should get 1 heads and 1 tails? Or maybe first time you had 50% chance and got heads and then... yup, still 50% for a heads or 50% for tails! yay!

thank Jesus you don't play poker, cos you would be frustrated after few hands.

variance my friend.
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Bottom line is you have X % chance for it to drop each time. How you feel doesn't change that. Nor does the number of hours... :(

For example:

I have gotten all 3 keys in a row to make a machine on mp5.
I have gotten all 3 demon pieces in one uber run on mp5.
I have gotten 3 legendaries in one mp1 12 min run.*

I have gotten 3 demon pieces out of 3 uber runs on mp6.
I have gotten 0 legendaries in 5 or more consecutive runs on mp1 several times.*

*Plvl has made a noticeable difference compared to 0 plvl for legendaries
Edited by iBetrayou#1502 on 12/12/2012 1:13 PM PST
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