Diablo® III

The real problem with 1.07 crafting

It's simply come too late. This would have been GREAT in the early days to make it easier to jump into Inferno (since everyone could do act 1 for materials unless you're terrible). At this point though, it's just not going to be worth much of anything.

Let's do some fun math. In order for an amulet (for example) to be worth 20+ million on the AH, it has to really roll 6 good stats. The good stats are:
LOH
Crit chance
Crit damage
Mainstat
Vitality
Average damage
All resistance
Life %
Life regen
Magic find
IAS

I listed all the possible affixes that people would consider useful. Now we'll have mainstat always, that's a given. The trouble comes from the other stats. There are 30 total possible affixes that can roll on an amulet. Out of those, in order to get a truly great amulet, you need all 6 to at least roll one of the useful affixes. The probability of this happening is
(10/30)*(9/30)*(8/30)*(7/30)*(6/30)=about a .1% chance, or 1 in 1000.

So since these things will cost roughly 150k in materials, you can expect to spend 150 million on something worth maybe 50 million.

Now when you consider that all these affixes need to roll pretty high to be valuable as well, the chance falls even farther. I'm not going to calculate the probability of that since it's going to easily push the average cost of a great amulet into the billions.

Even if you only want 4 good affixes (so mainstat+3 good ones), you still only have a 2.5% chance of getting that. So you'll have to spend 6 million gold on an amulet that you could pick up from the AH for much less.
Reply Quote
Posts: 1,070
View profile
you have 11 good stats
main stat is guaranteed 201-230

10/29 * 9/28 * 8/27 * 7/26 * 6/25 = 0.2122% chance
approximately one on 500, more than double your estimate, but still pretty bad.

But don't really need top percentile rolls. Just having all 6 properties not wasted is good enough for most people. Well I play hardcore, dunno about softcore, but an amulet with 6 useful props all with middle level rolls would still be worth 50m to most players.

Like mainstat 215
vit 100
crit 7.5
CD 70%
regen 200
armor 200

Even with all stats around middle range, an amulet like this would still cost close to 75m on hardcore AH.

Not completely disagreeing with you. The expected return is likely negative, and the costs are even higher on HC. But it's not as bad as you think.
Reply Quote
Since many people ignore survivability stats on jewelry (on softcore at least) the actual list of useful stats is lower which makes the chances of getting a good item much worse.

For example if I got an amulet with:
100 crit damage
80 all resist
150 strength
50 vit

I wouldn't use this item because it has no crit chance. From my point of view my current amulet has 120 vit on it and I can't sacrifice this vit. My list of desired stats is therefore:

CC
CD
IAS
Vit
Average Damage

If I ignore average damage and treat is as a nice bonus then the chances of getting an amulet with the desired affixes is about 1 in 30,000. If I want average damage as well it becomes 1 in 150,000. Treating average damage and IAS as a luxury leaves it at 1 in 4000 or so.

Str (201 or better), vit, CC + CD ilvl 60 amulets start at 6.5m on the EU AH. They aren't great but they do have the required affixes.

Demonic Essence:
Running MP8 over 23 runs I killed an average of 60 elite monsters per 90 minute session. This is about 25 demonic essences per hour with a 61% drop chance.

Brimstones:
Over 23 runs I got 1 legendary per 55 minutes so lets call that 1 brimstone per hour.

Flawless Square gems:
Like the brimstones, they will limit how many amulets you can make so you may need to buy them.

Tome of Secrets:
If I bothered to pick them up I doubt I would get 75 per hour although they are more plentiful than the gems.

Crafting using your own essences but buying everything else:
Total cost for 4000 amulets is 694 million gold based on current EU prices and 160 hours to collect the essences.

Crafting using only your own mats:
The brimstones and possibly the gems are the limiting factor here. At the rate at which I farm I could make 1 amulet per hour or so. The cost to make 4000 amulets is 520 million gold and 4000 hours of farming.

TL/DR
Crafting an amulet will be something that most people do at the end of their run or session as a little bonus. Getting a crap legendary will become less of a big deal because it'll enable you to gamble on another amulet. Some people will roll trifecta and quadfecta amulets on the first day. The majority of players will probably never craft a trifecta amulet.

I imagine that brimstone prices will skyrocket shortly after the patch hits, after people use up their supplies. Tome and gem prices should go up too. Essences should be plentiful and cheap.
Reply Quote
Posts: 1,553
View profile
Wow...dumb poster is dumb?

This would have been GREAT in the early days to make it easier to jump into Inferno (since everyone could do act 1 for materials unless you're terrible).


This is the only SMART part of this post, as you're right! It's great for people to use when they're just getting to Inferno and looking for a handful of gear upgrades to potentially allow them the chance to get to a higher MP or two. It's NOT meant to be endgame level gear crafting.

Do I hope more endgame level crafting is implemented? YOU BET! But this isn't it. If anything, this crafting is meant to allow people more options OUTSIDE the AH. Think about it...if you want to BUY gear for your character, the AH is already packed full of stuff that you can upgrade with.

If a player wants slightly lower quality upgrades that don't involve the AH, via crafting and loot...this is an option for them.

Let's do some fun math. In order for an amulet (for example) to be worth 20+ million on the AH,


Gonna stop this quote right here. Again, if all you're concerned about is making gold on the AH? There are way better options than crafting to get this done. People can already farm and get some stuff to sell for a few mil here, a few mil there. Maybe 150mil+ items are rare, they damn well should be if they're that valuable. But this kind of crafting isn't for making money!

01/17/2013 10:07 AMPosted by Zoid
since these things will cost roughly 150k in materials,


Gonna stop this quote again, because this is likely the most ignorant part...

Um, why are people buying crafting materials, when farming can get them for you for free? I have never bought a single crafting material. All the materials I have in my stash, I've farmed. I have stacks of 500 Normal and Nightmare blue, maybe 200-300 Hell blue (but I can easily farm the rest with my Barb, WD and DH), 500 Inferno blue, 400+ Inferno yellow, and hovering around the 200 and 300s of the other difficulty yellows. Didn't pay a single gold piece for any of that, so you can chop that 150k right off my charge for crafting any of this new stuff, if I decide to do it.

Not to mention...Demonic Essences, needed to make some of the new armors and the amulet, are also account bound...

A new crafting reagent, Demonic Essence, has been added to the game

This reagent is account-bound and can be acquired from Elite monsters in Inferno difficulty


Meaning, people can't buy that. They need to earn it.

TLDR: The new crafting options in the patch are NOT meant as endgame level gear upgrades. They're meant as an additional option for people to use if they choose to go without the AH. Combine that with the increased XP rewards for higher MPs in Inferno, you have people CRAFTING and LOOTING better items ON THEIR OWN than before the patch. The AH may not be going away, but people may start realizing their folly of relying on it since launch. I mean, if you think these options aren't going to seriously mess with prices and the ability to sell on the AH, you're dreaming. This is just one of many steps Blizzard is taking to make the AH less appealing for new players.
Edited by CardinalMDM#1269 on 1/30/2013 7:29 AM PST
Reply Quote
um, i just wanna double check.. aren't these new crafted items BoA anyway? if so that kills any potential profit margin anyway lol.
Reply Quote
as i recall......

.2 = 20%
.1 = 10%

so how does .1 = 1/1000???
Reply Quote
OP wasn't talking about profit. I think he was just pointing out that, assuming you don't boycott the auction house, it'd be cheaper to just buy an amulet there rather than craft the new recipes.

If you're a new player or don't use the AH then the new recipes could be pretty good if you want to get a decent entry level item. On the otherhand you could craft hundreds of them and get health globe bonus and crowd control reduction all the way.

.1 is 10% or 1/10th; 1 in 10
.1% is 0.001 or 1/1000th; 1 in 1000
Reply Quote
silly me, didnt see the % lol...carry on

although i did craft only about 10 gloves to find me an upgrade which isnt that bad at all

and an ammy with 9+cc and 90+ cd with 250+ main stat (ten tries also)

worth it for me imo

also, i dont use ah for mats
Edited by pHkaty#1127 on 1/30/2013 9:30 AM PST
Reply Quote
01/17/2013 10:07 AMPosted by Zoid
Let's do some fun math. In order for an amulet (for example) to be worth 20+ million on the AH, it has to really roll 6 good stats.


The cheapest amulet with ias/cc/cd/intel/ar (5 good stats) is 75 millions on the AH, and all of those stats are on the lowest ranges...

And a perfect 3 stats ammy ( ias/cc/cd ) would be worth so much more.
In fact, the cheapest ammy with 9ias/10CC/and 75 CD ( perfect ias and cc, decent CD ) is 900m buyout.
For 3 stats.

As for the crafting costs... It doesn't really matter if the item can be BiS.
People will waste gold worth thousand IRL $ to craft BiS.
Reply Quote
It's simply come too late. This would have been GREAT in the early days to make it easier to jump into Inferno (since everyone could do act 1 for materials unless you're terrible). At this point though, it's just not going to be worth much of anything.

Let's do some fun math. In order for an amulet (for example) to be worth 20+ million on the AH, it has to really roll 6 good stats. The good stats are:
LOH
Crit chance
Crit damage
Mainstat
Vitality
Average damage
All resistance
Life %
Life regen
Magic find
IAS

I listed all the possible affixes that people would consider useful. Now we'll have mainstat always, that's a given. The trouble comes from the other stats. There are 30 total possible affixes that can roll on an amulet. Out of those, in order to get a truly great amulet, you need all 6 to at least roll one of the useful affixes. The probability of this happening is
(10/30)*(9/30)*(8/30)*(7/30)*(6/30)=about a .1% chance, or 1 in 1000.

So since these things will cost roughly 150k in materials, you can expect to spend 150 million on something worth maybe 50 million.

Now when you consider that all these affixes need to roll pretty high to be valuable as well, the chance falls even farther. I'm not going to calculate the probability of that since it's going to easily push the average cost of a great amulet into the billions.

Even if you only want 4 good affixes (so mainstat+3 good ones), you still only have a 2.5% chance of getting that. So you'll have to spend 6 million gold on an amulet that you could pick up from the AH for much less.


Thats assuming the cost of an ammy is 20m. I imagine a 200+ main stat, 100 +vit, 60+ all res, 8+cc, 90+cd and 8+ ias sells for more than 150m.

edit:

So I figured I'd calculate the expected value assuming your numbers are right:

.02*150,000,000-.98*150,000=2853000

Which means you're winning. Granted, I think the chance is lower by probably an order of magnitude, but I still think we come out on top.
Edited by MensoDummy#1398 on 1/30/2013 10:13 AM PST
Reply Quote


Thats assuming the cost of an ammy is 20m. I imagine a 200+ main stat, 100 +vit, 60+ all res, 8+cc, 90+cd and 8+ ias sells for more than 150m.


That's for a low-end amulet, one that just rolls those stats, not rolls high values. Once you roll crit (for example) then you have a different roll for a good value of crit. Something with 5% CC, 50% CD, 6 AS would sell for drastically less than the one you posted.

@Cardinal, you're an idiot. I'm not talking about making money, but everything has relative value. In order for this to be useful it has to be at LEAST equivalent to spending that gold on the AH. Saying "I never buy materials so they don't cost me anything" is absolutely idiotic since if you're using them, you NOT selling them. So they either cost you gold to buy or cost you gold that you didn't get by selling.
Reply Quote
The point is that the crafted amulet can potentially roll better than the ones in the AH, however slim that chance. If it rolls better than anything in existence, then it is worth 5+ billion, it's practically priceless (well, quite literally so since you can't sell it) :)

But I don't think I'd craft amulets. I'd probably go for the gloves though. Could really use new gloves. :)
Reply Quote
01/30/2013 07:18 AMPosted by CardinalMDM
Um, why are people buying crafting materials, when farming can get them for you for free?
LoL. Farmed crafting materials are *not* free.

Consider all the opportunity cost.
Reply Quote
Um, why are people buying crafting materials, when farming can get them for you for free?
LoL. Farmed crafting materials are *not* free.

Consider all the opportunity cost.


Not everybody thinks of farming as being about gold or money, so don't even consider "opportunity cost" as such. It's not a cost to them because they enjoy picking up all the blues and stuff and scrapping them, while others find that a nuisance or a "waste of time where time equals money" or whatever. :)

Enjoy the game however you like. :)
Edited by Delfius#1437 on 1/30/2013 10:45 AM PST
Reply Quote
Not everybody thinks of farming as being about gold or money, so don't even consider "opportunity cost" as such. It's not a cost to them because they enjoy picking up all the blues and stuff and scrapping them, while others find that a nuisance or a "waste of time where time equals money" or whatever. :)

Enjoy the game however you like. :)
I farm everything, and as of now I am pretty sure that salvaging is an awful waste of time AND money.

I think that one in 5 rares can be sold for at least 100k, that alone makes salvaging a great way to throw money. Picking up blues can really make your farming sesions take longer and have less benefits.

The worst of it is the brimstone. I don't find legendaries very often, but when I do, it is actually a useful legendary that I would not salvage for a 10k crafting material :/

But of course this is all irrelevant. The poster claimed farmed materials are free, and I just corrected him/her. If you like this whole deal you have to recognize that you will be wasting money in the ways they currently are. It is up to everyone to decide whether they prefer throwing their money with crafting in exchange of the benefit of making their own items, or if they prefer AH... I think I will use the crafting and I am currently actually giving level 62 recipes a try. But our tastes don't change the facts, they are a waste of money and resources in comparison to just going shopping in the AH. And I suspect they are a waste of time in comparison to farming your own rares...
Edited by vexorian#1817 on 1/30/2013 10:51 AM PST
Reply Quote
Community Manager
Posts: 2,054
I think there's a decent amount of players who will benefit from these new recipes, especially since the recent update to the PTR increases the core stat range for most of the pieces. You can read more about recent PTR changes right here and please let us know what you think about the crafting updates.
Reply Quote
The real problem is it takes too much gold to get a decent ammy crafted and not be able to sell it.

Why not take ~100 mill invest it in a decent ammy, at least in a couple months it will still be worth something. Where as w/e is invested in the ammy is lost regardless of rolls.
Reply Quote
Posts: 5,672
View profile
01/30/2013 10:32 PMPosted by Grimiku
I think there's a decent amount of players who will benefit from these new recipes, especially since the recent update to the PTR increases the core stat range for most of the pieces. You can read more about recent PTR changes right [url="http://us.battle.net/d3/en/blog/8414570/Public_Test_Realm_--_Patch_107_Notes_Updated_130-1_30_2013"]here [/url]and please let us know what you think about the [url="http://us.battle.net/d3/en/blog/8414570/Public_Test_Realm_--_Patch_107_Notes_Updated_130-1_30_2013#crafting "]crafting [/url]updates.


Increasing the main stat range is nice, but doesn't adress all the other affixes that a piece can roll, and THOSE values as well. A chest piece with 230 str but 20 vit, reduced level requirement, thorns and pickup radius is still craptastic.
Reply Quote
Posts: 13,631
View profile
01/30/2013 10:32 PMPosted by Grimiku
I think there's a decent amount of players who will benefit from these new recipes, especially since the recent update to the PTR increases the core stat range for most of the pieces. You can read more about recent PTR changes right [url="http://us.battle.net/d3/en/blog/8414570/Public_Test_Realm_--_Patch_107_Notes_Updated_130-1_30_2013"]here [/url]and please let us know what you think about the [url="http://us.battle.net/d3/en/blog/8414570/Public_Test_Realm_--_Patch_107_Notes_Updated_130-1_30_2013#crafting "]crafting [/url]updates.


Quite frankly, some people are ready to sacrifice main stats for average damage (which is much better overall).
Reply Quote
01/30/2013 10:32 PMPosted by Grimiku
I think there's a decent amount of players who will benefit from these new recipes, especially since the recent update to the PTR increases the core stat range for most of the pieces. You can read more about recent PTR changes right [url="http://us.battle.net/d3/en/blog/8414570/Public_Test_Realm_--_Patch_107_Notes_Updated_130-1_30_2013"]here [/url]and please let us know what you think about the [url="http://us.battle.net/d3/en/blog/8414570/Public_Test_Realm_--_Patch_107_Notes_Updated_130-1_30_2013#crafting "]crafting [/url]updates.


Burning the midnight oil, eh? I really hope Blizz plans to delve more deeply than it has into the "whys" behind making the new items Bound to Account. I still recall pre-release statements along the lines of "Diablo is a game of trading, so there are no plans for any bound equipment."

I know requirements change, but wouldn't it be grand if we could sell the new items we craft? I can only guess that Blizzard's intent is to make the MATERIALS used to craft these items more valuable. This could conceivably close the gap between the very rich in this game, and the "average gamer." If crafting materials which are easily accessed and amassed by casual gamers became increasingly valuable to the very, very rich players, it would equalize the market. Then people would be rewarded more for their farming.

That's ONLY if it works the way as planned and makes the crafting mats more valuable steadily.

It's a bold gamble..
Reply Quote

Please report any Code of Conduct violations, including:

Threats of violence. We take these seriously and will alert the proper authorities.

Posts containing personal information about other players. This includes physical addresses, e-mail addresses, phone numbers, and inappropriate photos and/or videos.

Harassing or discriminatory language. This will not be tolerated.

Forums Code of Conduct

Report Post # written by

Reason
Explain (256 characters max)
Submit Cancel

Reported!

[Close]