Diablo® III

Keywarden drop rate

Hi,

I have been farming Act I "Odeg the Keywarden" with a friend on Inferno MP5.
My friend is paragon 10, and I am paragon 14. We made sure to get 5 NV in inferno before killing him.
I have not received even one key, while my friend received a key 5/5 times we ran tonight. I have run this more than 15 times solo, and tonight 5 times with my friend, all on MP5, and still no keys.

Is there something i'm missing, or am I just very unlucky?
Each and every run I was sure to have 5 NV before confronting the Keywarden.

Thanks
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You're just very unlucky. lol I have a bunch of stories like that.
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Posts: 257
Key farming/ über runs below mp7 can net you a lot of runs empty handed for the time spent. This includes keys and organ parts.

Heck, last night I had 9 machines did 3 FULL Ubers clears and didn't receive 1 organ from Seige/Kuhle on MP7.

In your case Mp5 is a 50/50 chance.

Flipping a coin and heads=key drop, and tail=no key drop. You are getting tails quite a few times in a row, which can happen, could be 50 times before a key drops.

Lotta people think if they mp5 2 runs they will get at least 1 key, because its a50% chance. Odds are highly against that happening.
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got 2 out of 2 today mp5
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Posts: 257
Key farming is unreliable below mp7+. If you get a key or an organ consider yourself lucky.

MP5 - 50% drop rate

9 keys are needed for a full solo clear of Ubers
3 organs are needed for a hellfire ring craft attempt
Hellfire ring has 4 randomly rolled affixes

That is 12 times you are under the 50% chance rate to get to the point of crafting a ring. This will take an incredible amount of time at those odds.

I'm running mp8 solo for keys, and organs. Getting the organs quickly isn't my issue, now it's having the game roll 4 affixes on the ring so it's even worth equipping.
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01/07/2013 07:56 PMPosted by Kizmatti
Lotta people think if they mp5 2 runs they will get at least 1 key, because its a50% chance. Odds are highly against that happening.


For 2 runs, the odds of getting 2 "heads" or "tails" in a row are 25%, which is arguably likely to happen.

Not true for 5 times though. The odds of getting 5 "heads" or 5 "tails" in a row is (0.5)^5, or 3.125%, which statistically is unlikely to happen. Though my friend and I seem to have met both extremes in one sitting.

Just completed another MP5 run and failed to drop for the 6th time in a row, where the probability of that happening is 1.5625%.

I feel like I have the worst luck..lol
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I farmed 9 keys last night and today, 3 of each (mp4). The first 6 took about 40 runs, the last 3 I got in 4 runs. Once the act3 warden dropped two set peices on one kill! Worth the 40 runs imo lol. RNG sux sometimes, keep ur head up..
Edited by Patcarnig#1305 on 1/7/2013 8:30 PM PST
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i run mp5 keys in about 6 min per run

i will go 5+ runs without a key at some times, then sometime i get 14 in a row

50% is 50% just because u do 2 runs doesn't make the second run 100%, it makes it 50% still

^_^
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In MP5, chance of continuous get n keys in n times is :-
0.5^n

while chance of continuous Fail to get keys in n times is :-
0.5^n

Exactly the same!

You just fall in the bad side OP, you will realize it in the future when you fall in the good size :)

(forgive me if you find my English is hard is understand ^^)
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I think the best way to farm keys is to make sure the MP lvls is at the premium. This means, if you're just say a 100 DPS player that is struggling on MP5, then you should be building your armor. If you have no problem with MP5, then you can boost your movement and DPS for faster farming on MP6. And if you can solo MP6, your best way to find keys would be to run group on MP7.

The key will drop as often as you like, just try to take advantage of what you can control in terms of settings. The worst way to farm keys is creating a game on a MP LVL too high or too low, too high means you are dying or fleeing, and too low means you are wasting valuable time.

My 2 cents.
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01/07/2013 07:56 PMPosted by Kizmatti
Flipping a coin and heads=key drop, and tail=no key drop. You are getting tails quite a few times in a row, which can happen, could be 50 times before a key drops.


Do me a favor: flip a coin over and over until you receive 50 heads or tails in a row. When that happens, come back here and I'll acknowledge that it's possible. Unfortunately, you'll be dead of old age before that happens, even if you flip a coin every second of every day until the day you die.

In fact, the odds of flipping a coin on only heads or tails 50 times in a row is 1,123,595,505,617,980 to 1. It would be expected to happen only after you had flipped a coin every second for about 36 million years.

01/07/2013 07:56 PMPosted by Kizmatti
Lotta people think if they mp5 2 runs they will get at least 1 key, because its a50% chance. Odds are highly against that happening.


Actually, the chance of it not happening is exactly equal to the chance of it happening. In what universe would that scenario be considered long odds?
Edited by Slappy#1530 on 2/4/2013 2:15 AM PST
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It's all RNG. I have several keys myself, and often host MP 2 sessions for some under-geared friends of mine. On one such run, both me and one of my three co-players got keys.

RNG.
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