So I started keeping stats on it: 87 runs at MP 3 and 11 keys. And if I do 100 more runs, I should get around 15 keys.
They definitely halved the drop rates, which I don't have a problem, I wish they would just tell us so that our expectations are in line with reality. But this, in my guess, is actually a way to get people to play more.
Here's the way it works. The developers tell you the drop rates are MP x 10%. In the beginning it works that way so you get the reward (like gambling does with your reward center). Then they change it to half, and now you have to work twice as hard at it to try to get that same reward. Meanwhile D3 benefits, because they have idiots like myself trying to work twice as hard to get the reward.
I expect they will do this with other bovine fecal account bound items as well.
No thanks. Done as of tonight.
Cue the dumasses who talk about random, luck, blah blah blah.