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I have been doing some key farming, and I have noticed over the last month that the key drops are just not happening  not like they did in the beginning.
So I started keeping stats on it: 87 runs at MP 3 and 11 keys. And if I do 100 more runs, I should get around 15 keys. They definitely halved the drop rates, which I don't have a problem, I wish they would just tell us so that our expectations are in line with reality. But this, in my guess, is actually a way to get people to play more. Here's the way it works. The developers tell you the drop rates are MP x 10%. In the beginning it works that way so you get the reward (like gambling does with your reward center). Then they change it to half, and now you have to work twice as hard at it to try to get that same reward. Meanwhile D3 benefits, because they have idiots like myself trying to work twice as hard to get the reward. I expect they will do this with other bovine fecal account bound items as well. No thanks. Done as of tonight. Cue the dumasses who talk about random, luck, blah blah blah. 

Why would you key farm on MP3, anyway?
While there's always a possibility that there was a stealth nerf to the keys, that is *much* less likely than you just having a dry spell. 11/87 on a 30% chance is well within a reasonably expected distribution. If you had 0 out of 87 (or 60+, for that matter), then we might have something on our hands. As it is, keep gathering data. I'll be convinced when you're around 2000 runs and only 300 keys :) 

So if you only do 1 run at MP0 and it drops, the rate is 100%?
It doesn't work like that. 

That's weird, I do MP10 with my friends and I get a key every time O_o
What did they change? 

ur data pool is way too small. need to run 10.000+ times for accurate results


I agree with johno86. I seem to get one every time on MP10 too. Hmmm... maybe it's just MP 3 that's broke....


I got like 12 keys from maybe around 3550 keywarden kills on MP0. I actually wasn't even farming keys, but rather it took too many runs to gain levels so I started doing longer runs (tagged keep2, battlements, and stonefort to the end of my standard route). That's when I noticed the keys seem to drop way more then they should.


Inferno + 5NV + kill Keywarden = (mpX x 10)% chance to drop.
RNGesus just doesn't like you. 

Actually, if the drop chance was 30%, getting 11 keys (or less) with 87 trials has probability of about 0.03%. That's about 1 in 3000. It's not impossible, but definitely not standard to be that unlucky.


I would suggest googling: Statistics law of large numbers.
I tend to keyfarm MP8. I could probably just sweep through MP0 and get more XP faster, but that feels like a waste of effort. So, I pick up rares to sell, and do key runs. I have 39 machines, and I think it is unlikely that I will ever see a ring that suits me better than me Nats with 6% crit and 9% ias, or my SoJ with +30% vs Elites and +12% Sweeping Wind damage  but the patch could change my mind. Edited: Since the Nat's 2piece is apparently getting the Nerf hammer in 1.07, I will be using those machines.
Edited by Virtueboy#1109 on 2/2/2013 3:25 AM PST


If there's a 1 in 3000 chance of being that unlucky, and there are 100,000 people farming, then about 33 of them will indeed be that unlucky. OP is one of the 33.
Edited by hong#6510 on 2/2/2013 3:26 AM PST


Most likely some number around 33  the same formulas need to be applied again. It's statistics :) On the flip side, this is symmetrical distribution: in the example of original poster chance of getting 11 or less keys in 87 runs is the same as the chance of getting 76 keys or more. So, while on average 1 in 3000 players will be very unlucky, also 1 in 3000 will see quite the opposite results :)
Edited by arktyczny#2537 on 2/2/2013 3:33 AM PST


That's incorrect. if the chance of dropping is 30% chance of getting 76+ keys from 87 runs are close to 0. Here... http://stattrek.com/onlinecalculator/binomial.aspx IMO, whatever run OP did, don't have 30% chance of dropping key. *shrug* need more NV or longer run or whatever..
Edited by Squeal#1221 on 2/2/2013 3:52 AM PST


I actually get a key drop almost every run on mp5. When I do key runs, I don't just go for the kw after nv 5. For example, in act 2 key runs, I clear the vaults of assassins, then I go to oasis and take out all elites before going for the kw. Last night, I did 10 runs and got 9 keys. Sometimes, in oasis, I like to herd 34 elite groups to the kw and take out the herd + kw at the same time as one group. It's weird, but I seem to get more leg drops by doing so.

IDIOTS stop telling OP that his sample size is not large enough
0.99996086562958 is the chance using binomial distribution with probability of success = 0.30, trial = 87, x>11 THAT MEANS 99.9961% OF THE TIME HE SHOULD GET MORE THAN 11 KEY it is not possible that the OP only got 11 key if the probability of success in MP3 is 30%!! either OP lying or blizzard lying 

That's incorrect. if the chance of dropping is 30% chance of getting 76+ keys from 87 runs are close to 0. I didn't manage to wake up properly, you are absolutely right. It's symmetrical but the mean is not 43.5 :) Anyway, the link above gives much higher precision of calculation than iPhone app I used, and in fact probability of 11 or less keys found is lower than I originally posted, closer to 1 in 8000. 

No doubt on that. I once ran an obscene number of P4 and P5 runs and ended up with zero to the point where I finally settled on the speed of 3 and the 15% drop rate. Or, I guess as another poster said, the RNGods just don't like me. Perhaps a noble sacrifice is in order? Any ideas on what would be a worthy piece of equipment to destroy? 

Your ripping off all my good luck and it pisses me off. 

I agree. We're talking statistics and probability here. Simply because there's a 30% chance for it dropping for you on MP3 doesn't mean the system magically monitors you and makes sure to drop 3 keys per every 10 tries. That's not how probability works. That's statically what can happen, but statistics do not dictate what will actually happen per given number of tries. 

IDIOTS stop telling OP that his sample size is not large enough Actually as each roll is independent of the last there's a chance he could get 87 keys or a chance that he could get 0 keys. The other people are right. He would need a much larger sample size to see if the drop rate has actually changed. ________________________________________________ MVP's are not employees of Blizzard Entertainment. We are players just like you. Nothing I say is Official word from Blizzard, everything is of my own conjecture. I don't have moderation powers and I am not a Blizzard Representative. MVP FAQ: http://us.battle.net/d3/en/forum/topic/4038704716#2 
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