Diablo® III

How far will PoE dip in xfire in one month?

02/17/2013 03:31 AMPosted by FrodoFragins
WH online, AoC, SWTOR, STO, WOW ...


?? what about them? whats wh online or sto?
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02/17/2013 03:40 AMPosted by KradisZ
?? what about them? whats wh online or sto?


I think WH Online is Warhammer Online and STO is Star Trek Online. I also think those are the gaming trends he was talking about last week (took a while to come up with those...). Not that we can look it up those games since xfire has no long term stat tracking (that I can see anyways). Also, all of those were pay to play MMOs and everybody involved with those games knew about the player base shrinking so if xfire showed the player base was shrinking, it wasn't very insightful.

I assume he's talking about WoW's playerbase shrinking in those long gaps between patches. If it's something more recent then I don't know because I haven't payed any attention to WoW since prior to MoP.
Edited by Ringo#1617 on 2/17/2013 7:23 AM PST
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02/17/2013 07:22 AMPosted by Ringo
?? what about them? whats wh online or sto?


I think WH Online is Warhammer Online and STO is Star Trek Online. I also think those are the gaming trends he was talking about last week (took a while to come up with those...). Not that we can look it up those games since xfire has no long term stat tracking (that I can see anyways). Also, all of those were pay to play MMOs and everybody involved with those games knew about the player base shrinking so if xfire showed the player base was shrinking, it wasn't very insightful.

I assume he's talking about WoW's playerbase shrinking in those long gaps between patches. If it's something more recent then I don't know because I haven't payed any attention to WoW since prior to MoP.


Oh okay, yeah okay well those are all Pay to Play zz... -_-.. so i still don't know what trend he's trying to insinuate, i remember a korean CEO talking about how F2P was more successful than P2P and how consoles are dying like... 3years back. XFire = nothing?
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PoE still falling, now rank 14.

Ok from now I do not care about PoE anymore, for me it is dead already.

Sure PoE found some players/fanboys. Let them have their fun there. We all play what we like.

But the fact is: Majority is playing Diablo 3. Nothing will change it until Grim Dawn is out. Lets see how this game will succed.

Back to farming!
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I think WH Online is Warhammer Online and STO is Star Trek Online. I also think those are the gaming trends he was talking about last week (took a while to come up with those...). Not that we can look it up those games since xfire has no long term stat tracking (that I can see anyways). Also, all of those were pay to play MMOs and everybody involved with those games knew about the player base shrinking so if xfire showed the player base was shrinking, it wasn't very insightful.

I assume he's talking about WoW's playerbase shrinking in those long gaps between patches. If it's something more recent then I don't know because I haven't payed any attention to WoW since prior to MoP.


Oh okay, yeah okay well those are all Pay to Play zz... -_-.. so i still don't know what trend he's trying to insinuate, i remember a korean CEO talking about how F2P was more successful than P2P and how consoles are dying like... 3years back. XFire = nothing?


The point was that XFire has been completely accurate at measuring trends for games where it was possible to verify them.

The reason it took me a while to respond is because I only check these forums a couple of times a week. I'm still waiting for some more depth to be added to the game.

If you want to believe XFire is complete crap then so be it. I don't really care. There are other less reliable ways to get estimates as well.
Edited by FrodoFragins#1142 on 2/17/2013 3:17 PM PST
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PoE still falling, now rank 14.

Ok from now I do not care about PoE anymore, for me it is dead already.

Sure PoE found some players/fanboys. Let them have their fun there. We all play what we like.

But the fact is: Majority is playing Diablo 3. Nothing will change it until Grim Dawn is out. Lets see how this game will succed.

Back to farming!


Grim Dawn will not be releasing with private closed servers. I don't expect Grim Dawn to get nearly as many players as POE. I liked Titan Quest but it wasn't really a success. I'm not sure how Grim Dawn will be either.
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02/17/2013 03:12 PMPosted by FrodoFragins
The point was that XFire has been completely accurate at measuring trends for games where it was possible to verify them.


I gave you 3 examples , which you even quoted...., a week ago which were completely backwards (and drastically different) from another stat source, so no it's not "completely accurate".

If you want to believe XFire is complete crap then so be it. I don't really care. There are other less reliable ways to get estimates as well.


It's not complete crap, but it absolutely is not some infallible, be-all end-all stat source that some people try to make it out to be.

All it gets used for around here is to point and laugh whenever some game goes above D3. Then all those people magically vanish when the same game falls down below D3 again only to show up and giggle some more the next time it happens.
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02/17/2013 03:12 PMPosted by FrodoFragins
The point was that XFire has been completely accurate at measuring trends for games where it was possible to verify them.


It's speculated by a player-controlled environment, it's not so much anything official. It's like a fansite, they can throw out every digit they want with every user registered with it but it doesn't amount to anything close to actual #s. I play games with 12 friends on most games like D3, DotA2, Torchlight2 LoL, natural selection 2, gw2, etc. and whatnot we all migrate around here andt here, some of us stay in some and others we don't, but out of the 12 of us none of us use Xfire. It does not represent any accurate population or trend.

If a game that was Pay to Play for example and suddenly goes free to play guess what happens? By common sense the playerbase should grow about AT LEAST 3x over. Otherwise it really is absolute garbage. You don't need a tool to figure that out.

Steam for example makes sense because DotA2 is ran by Valve which owns steam so yeah, those figures are accurate because it's monitored by the officials themselves, as for Xfire and Dota2 doesn't really make any sense.

Based on that it is absolutely NOT completely accurate. It may be an estimation but that's all it is, I don't think accuracy is there if officials aren't involved.

If I were to go by that logic then DotA2 has well over 12 million users registered in their game based on XFire's relative rank and listing in regards to Diablo 3. Which is absolutely bullock. Call of Duty is lightyears beyond Diablo 3 in terms of how many people bought it, which is nowhere near close to Diablo 3's actual sales. It does not depict any trend if I am to stay consistent with YOUR perspective on it.

Xfire was made a long time ago for FPS(First Person Shooter not Frames Per Second) users, I was like maybe 12-14 when I first heard of it, even I used it for a short bit, then found it pointless because it seemed like MSN messenger. So I uninstalled. Over years I guess it developed into other things, but it wasn't made to monitor statistics and predict trends for sure. It might state that that's what it tries to do but I wouldn't call it completely accurate or actually defines any trend in any game.
Maybe hours logged by players on it that's about it. For all I know I could just go to school and take up like 4 rooms at night and run xfire and AFK on like a game with about 56 computers and it'd completely throw off the scale a little bit in 1 game for just afking all those hours.

Taken from XFire on Wikipedia.
Xfire (pronounced "X-Fire"[1]) is a proprietary freeware instant messaging service for gamers, that also serves as a game server browser with various other features. It is currently available for Microsoft Windows. Xfire was originally developed by Ultimate Arena based in Menlo Park, California. Xfire currently has over 21 million registered users, with frequently over 250,000 users online.[2]


250k users as of October 8 2011. <-- only about 730 days away from today's actual population on XFire, between that time and today I doubt it's increased to the population of Diablo 3's sales or the other games mentioned. It is only a FRACTION, that is online. The 21 million users don't ujst play 1 game all the time, the chances of that are extremely low. Anyone who's registered on XFire I expect isn't a casual gamer.

Not trying to offend casual gamers here, but what I mean is casual meaning they don't play games every single freaking day like more than fulltime job, or even close to. People who have a life unlike myself. lol.

Final example of consistency:
If iwere to take dota2's currently online population on Feb. 17, 2013, 8:40pm
which is 98,120 players online as DotA2 lists how many people are online if you log in to the lobby. And Xfire lists 11,067 on Dota2 on Feb. 17, 2013, 8:41pm then

I apply the same logic to Diablo 3, a charged game for 59.99$
which is only a mediocre 11,920 on Feb. 17 2013 8:43pm and have no actual data about DIablo 3's players online,
then is it accurate that I assume that there is only about 102,000 players online in diablo3?
Just on relativity. I mean it isn't that far-fetched is it?

Based on that and a 12 million sales I can safely say Diablo 3 is a failure with only 0.85% of its retained population actually playing the game, which I doubt is fact or even accurate.
This is just staying consistent with what you claim.
The trend here does not make any sense. For 12 million copies sold, anyone who might invest in Activision Blizzard stocks would definitely hold back, for a product that's sold 12mil copies only 0.85% people have faith in it. The rest decided to forget about it. How is this good at displaying a trend? It looks more like the downfall of a company and I'd pull my stocks out rather.
Most games follow the initial surge of hype and whatever and everyone buys and plays for the first week and month and tapers off to about maybe 10% or 20% of its original sales base, but 0.85%? Generally even after about a year it should increase past that 10 or 20% but it's not even at 1%.

That's ridiculous

Either DotA2 is successful being free, and is worth around 12 million sales of Diablo 3, or Diablo 3 is completely misrepresented by XFire, and the same applies to all the other games listed.

World of Warcraft is an even better example, it's a subscription based game so you KNOW people have to pay monthly in order to play it. Yet they have about I think 5-9 million subscribers? But it only depicts twice the amount of dota or diablo3 on there, so that 5-9 million is farce? It should only be like 340k subscribers or so.
It's not very accurate.
One game I have official data(Dota2) another game I have official sales copy sold(Diablo3), their ranking are similar but their playerbase is vastly different, and WoW being one of the most successful P2P games is vastly misrepresented by XFire if these trends are depicting games based off their ranking and hours logged and the like.
Edited by KradisZ#1651 on 2/17/2013 10:26 PM PST
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Path of Exile told people the most they've gotten on their servers is 60k. There's your hard facts.
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