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I have been having the same issue. I haven't seen a key drop in at least 7 runs, including two at MP5 and one at MP6. Pre-1.07 it usually took a couple runs even at MP4. I guess the probability of it not dropping in those 7 runs is still around 1%, so I will try a couple more times before I really become suspicious.
It's actually 55% for MP5, I think (5% + 10%*MP). I finally got a drop, but it was on my ninth run (I did two more MP6 runs). I have since had drops for all three keywardens at a more expected rate. It was just an inopportune time to go on an epic losing streak. Poor patch getting blamed for bad luck.
Official word from Blizz, is that you have Inferno MP(v)*10% chance of a drop where v is greater than zero and less than or equal to 10. Inferno MP0 is 5% chance.
However, this has been discussed with severval of the crew I run with and it does seem that Act 2 drop is the stingiest and Act 1 is the most generous. We all get less keys out of Act 2.
Edited by Thanatos#1723 on 4/1/2013 3:24 PM PDT
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