Diablo® III

Drop rate of plans is not 50% on bosses

79 Goblin Death Knight
4280
Posts: 1,085
Multiboxing 4 accounts, killed Azmodan 5 times with x5nv for loot, then change acts to Rak - 0 drops

Thats 20 kills and not one drop.

No way is it 50%
Edited by Shanikins#1580 on 2/15/2013 5:57 AM PST
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What are the odds of flipping heads 16 times in a row?
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Multiboxing 4 accounts, killed Azmodan 4 times with x5nv - 0 drops

Thats 16 kills and not one drop.

No way is it 50%


Mini-bosses, not bosses have those percentages !
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ahahahahaha
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Posts: 13,264
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Dont farm act bosses?
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The Archon Armor recipe (the chest piece) can be purchased from Squirt the Peddler for 1.5 million gold. The other plans will drop randomly in the world, but also have a 50% chance to drop off the following bosses when you have five stacks of Nephalem Valor:

Skeleton King
Spider Queen
Maghda
Zoltun Kulle
Ghom
Cydaea
Rakanoth
Izual
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"I got bad luck, therefore, game is broken!"

Got a couple plans from Rakanoth a couple days ago, btw.
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Read the patch notes next time and you can then make an informed post without looking silly.

(azmo does not drop the new plans, ROFL.)

Also, its not a flat 50%, it depends on your MP level, heres the notes:

"ITEMS
•General

•Crafting Plans and Jeweler Designs have been added for all of the new Rare recipes listed above

•These plans (excluding the chest piece) will drop randomly in the world and have a chance to drop off the following bosses when you have 5 stacks of Nephalem Valor:

•Skeleton King
•Spider Queen
•Maghda
•Zoltun Kulle
•Ghom
•Cydaea
•Rakanoth
•Izual

•The drop rate from the above bosses will also scale according to your Monster Power level:

•MP 0: 20%
•MP 1: 23.2%
•MP 2: 26.912%
•MP 3: 31.218%
•MP 4: 36.213%
•MP 5: 42.007%
•MP 6: 48.728%
•MP 7: 56.524%
•MP 8: 65.568%
•MP 9: 76.059%
•MP 10: 88.228%"

Took me like 5 secs to look it up.
Edited by Camisto#1172 on 2/15/2013 6:13 AM PST
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So maybe the math in my head isn't right.. but isn't 0 drops after 20 kills the same probability of 10 drops after 20 kills?
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02/15/2013 06:11 AMPosted by JBear
So maybe the math in my head isn't right.. but isn't 0 drops after 20 kills the same probability of 10 drops after 20 kills?


He might need to pick the right boss before he worries about the odds.
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"I got bad luck, therefore, game is broken!"

Got a couple plans from Rakanoth a couple days ago, btw.


20 kills at 50%, you call that bad luck?

bs, the chances of that happening are near impossible at 50%

and I did not say game is broken, I said its not 50%, and it aint.


I am sure Blizzard would lie about what has been implemented in the game.

Why do People continue to believe this is true? Like what motive would they have to lie about the drop rate of something. "The droprate is 50% (but it's actually .01% MUAHAHAHA)....like why would they do that?

Plus, from an above post, I am pretty sure it isn't even 50%, it's adjusted based of MP lvl or something as far as I remember.

PS: l2probability
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02/15/2013 06:11 AMPosted by JBear
So maybe the math in my head isn't right.. but isn't 0 drops after 20 kills the same probability of 10 drops after 20 kills?


Nope.

Think of it this way for 4 kills, you actually have 16 possible outcomes:

Y=Drop, N=No drop

1) N N N N
2) N N N Y
3) N N Y N
4) N N Y Y
5) N Y N N
6) N Y N Y
7) N Y Y N
8) N Y Y Y
9) Y N N N
10) Y N N Y
11) Y N Y N
12) Y N Y Y
13) Y Y N N
14) Y Y N Y
15) Y Y Y N
16) Y Y Y Y

There is 1 case where you get 0 drops (#1).
There are 4 cases where you get 2 drops, #4, #7, #10, #14.

20 kills is a more complicated case, but it all reduces to a statistical formula.
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Regardless of what each creature drops, having a 50% probability of getting a drop doesn't mean that you'll get one if you kill two.
It means that each time you kill one, you'll have a 50/50 chance to get one.
As each time is independent from the rest, it can happen that you'll never, ever get one, no matter how many times you try.

The wikipedia has a decent article about it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_%28probability_theory%29
Edited by Mithrán#2507 on 2/15/2013 6:39 AM PST
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I don't even know why you care about the recipes. I've spent about 30 million gold on the new recipes so far and nothing is better than what I already had.

I'm occasionally put some of my crafted gear on because I feel bad wasting so much gold on them. It sucks wasting so much gold only to lose a ton of EHP or DPS.
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