Diablo® III

Drop rate of plans is not 50% on bosses

02/15/2013 06:32 AMPosted by Derplord
So maybe the math in my head isn't right.. but isn't 0 drops after 20 kills the same probability of 10 drops after 20 kills?


Nope.

Think of it this way for 4 kills, you actually have 16 possible outcomes:

Y=Drop, N=No drop

1) N N N N
2) N N N Y
3) N N Y N
4) N N Y Y
5) N Y N N
6) N Y N Y
7) N Y Y N
8) N Y Y Y
9) Y N N N
10) Y N N Y
11) Y N Y N
12) Y N Y Y
13) Y Y N N
14) Y Y N Y
15) Y Y Y N
16) Y Y Y Y

There is 1 case where you get 0 drops (#1).
There are 4 cases where you get 2 drops, #4, #7, #10, #14.

20 kills is a more complicated case, but it all reduces to a statistical formula.


Aaah yea I think I was thinking 'order matters' probability. Yarr.
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I don't even know why you care about the recipes. I've spent about 30 million gold on the new recipes so far and nothing is better than what I already had.

I'm occasionally put some of my crafted gear on because I feel bad wasting so much gold on them. It sucks wasting so much gold only to lose a ton of EHP or DPS.


You need to consider who those recipes were for, though.

The devs even said it in their Q&A answers. Thing is, people with high level, high quality, endgame gear need these recipes FAR less than people who go without the AH for their upgrades. Sure, people who bought gear on the AH that can allow them to faceroll MP10? They can TRY for some upgrades via the recipes, and there's a CHANCE they might get them.

But my low level Paragons, that JUST made it to Inferno, that have on gear that's lower than ilvl63? Those recipes would benefit them in a huge way! Hell, if I make two successful upgrades for one character, that jacks up their DPS and survivability enough that he or she can take on MP5 or 6 (seeing as they're still between 0-2), or they become strong enough to take on ubers solo so I can make a Hellfire Ring or two, that'd be a step up as well.

I mean, just looking at your main, Chillaxin, you likely got all that gear on the AH, and your DPS is around 300k (which has got to be enough to handle MP10), so naturally, you don't need these recipes at all. Like I said, trying them gives you a CHANCE to get something better, but the chances of you getting upgrades is far less likely than someone like me getting upgrades from them, when my characters all have on all gear that I found.
Edited by CardinalMDM#1269 on 2/15/2013 6:51 AM PST
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Yeah not to be mean or anything, but if his other 3 accounts are anything like his OP account, then he's not farming any higher than MP0, first of all. Second, even at MP0 it's a 20% chance. Out of 20 runs, you think you'd find one, and that's not to mention all the whites he's killed BEFORE Rak as well. These plans DO have a chance to drop anywhere off of any mob. It just doesn't sound right. So if he's telling the truth, RNG be damned, something is wrong here.
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In my case it's closer to 80% on MP4.

They should lower the drop rate, I think it's broken.
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OP, to your point about whether it's 50% or not......

I haven't found any of the Archon armor recipes yet either, even though I'm hoping to very soon. I've been wondering if it's 50% as well, but truthfully, with the additional XP I'm getting during farming runs, and the fact that I did find a Marquise Ruby plan yesterday, I'm okay with not finding them immediately.

It would be nice to get some insight on why it's harder for some people to find them others, and given your rather incomplete claim at the beginning, not including MP and mentioning you're taking on a boss that isn't giving a higher chance to drop any of the plans, shows that perhaps you're hoping in the wrong direction.
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02/15/2013 06:28 AMPosted by JBear
Don't listen to them, OP. Drop rates are !@#$. Just another case of Blizzard kissing the %^- of anyone willing to whip out a credit card to gear themselves up to run MP10.


Until you do 1000+ runs don't try to figure drop rates are !@#$. Your sample is far too small to make conclusions.

So when you toss a coin 20 times and end up with 20 tails, that's not a statistical anomaly at all, merely a small sample size. Riiight.
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2 runs mp2 -- ghom -- gloves vitality, shoulders vitality
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Community Manager
I just wanted to jump in and clarify that the drop rates for the Archon crafting recipes is not 50%. The plans have a chance to drop in the world, but select bosses have a scaling drop rate that increases with Monster Power. Here is a list of those bosses and how the drop rate scales.

•Skeleton King
•Spider Queen
•Maghda
•Zoltun Kulle
•Ghom
•Cydaea
•Rakanoth
•Izual

•The drop rate from the above bosses will also scale according to your Monster Power level:

•MP 0: 20%
•MP 1: 23.2%
•MP 2: 26.912%
•MP 3: 31.218%
•MP 4: 36.213%
•MP 5: 42.007%
•MP 6: 48.728%
•MP 7: 56.524%
•MP 8: 65.568%
•MP 9: 76.059%
•MP 10: 88.228%
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Found two Archon plans last night on a quick MP4 Skeleton King run, one from a trash mob and the other from the King.
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No way im finding one. I'm forced to buy D:
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Blue post


Sorry for derailing, but are you aware that theres currently a bug regarding the AH, where there are many people (including me) that after buying an item are getting nothing on the completed tab?
Edited by kidacao#1964 on 2/15/2013 11:01 AM PST
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So far I've found Archon spaulders of vit and guantlets of strength in 3 runs of mp5 ghom. Honestly just farm at high mp's. You'll find a recipe
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I ran a quick MP8 Ghom run last night and everyone except for one person got a plan.
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Azmodan does drop the plans but its far less often than the other mini bosses. Been doing Cydaea to Rakanoth MP6 runs since the patch came out and got more than 20 plans already, couple plans from Azmodan. Also Iskatu drops plans just as frequent as Cydaea and Rakanoth, making this run far more efficient than just killing Ghom or Magda over and over.

I wouldnt advise to farm Azmodan for plans since the droprate sucks, but it does drop them.
Edited by Devile#1430 on 2/15/2013 11:21 AM PST
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People are saying iztaku is one of the bosses with an elevated chance of plan drops. Can a blue confirm?
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