Diablo® III

[Discussion] Crafting Strategies & Odds

Name, did you see the google doc with Mandle's results?

Pretty interesting.
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I have gone from roughly 90k dps to 190k dps almost solely on crafts and had upgrades at every piece very early (within my first 5 mil spent on crafting). I would guess I've spent 80 mil on crafts so far so feel like I'm pretty knowledgeable on this subject.

I think you're underestimating the guaranteed 200 DEX on each craft. It's basically as good as a CD or IAS roll. By that I mean you only need to roll crit chance and either crit damage or IAS to have the equivalent of a trifecta because you are getting a big DPS boost from the DEX as well. Your odds of 1 in 19 of getting a duofecta make crafting pretty good when you think of it that way, and opposed to using the AH, you actually have a chance to get something godly that would costs hundreds of millions if you bought it.

Also, the trifecta odds are mostly relevant on the ammy and glove slot (I've crafted over 100 of each and had two trifecta gloves and one ammy). With a bracer you already have a guaranteed 200 DEX, if you roll high crit chance that's already going to give you more DPS than anything cheap on the AH (lacunis with ehp are going to cost you an arm and a leg) and I can't even think of 20 different stats that bracers can roll (I may be off base there). So your chances of rolling a solid bracer are pretty good. Same with shoulders. There aren't any DPS stats on shoulders except for mainstat, which you already get, so all you need is EHP and the number of variable stats are pretty limited.

So just my two cents. I'd recommend crafting to anyone who has over 10 million gold.

P.S. got my bracers on my 6th craft ever so I might have been biased from the start :)
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Yeah, basically from crafting I went from 90 to 120k dps. I probably only spend around 15M to get there, if not less.

I think all the posts here, and in all the crafting pages, is enough to reinforce the notion of just how great crafting is. There's basically NO reason for ANYBODY not to be crafting. The opportunity cost gold wise is SO low, not crafting shouldn't even be considered really.
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@Krimson (any intended connection to King Crimson?): those are some awesome crafts, congrats

@Nameless: I'll put it up on google docs, once I figure it out. I've been waiting for the patch where I can make a bunch of gems at once so i've only got 50 in the spreadsheet right now, have mats for another hundred+ when I get around to it, I might put up spreadsheet once I've done those too for version control
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Looks good to me.
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HOW ABOUT THAT AMULET NAMELESS. XDDDDDD <3
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what's your name?
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HOW ABOUT THAT AMULET NAMELESS. XDDDDDD <3

LOL. Honestly, it feels good. But I know I struck gold with the RNG. Doesn't change my approach towards crafting. I set aside 5M for crafting tonight and got some interesting items on my gloves and bracers too, but nothing worth upgrading my current setup from, IMO.
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Gonna be interesting to see if you still feel this way after you craft another REALLY nice thing that's WAY outside your budget, like that amulet.
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Just got a nice ammy, loose vit and res but gain a heap of dps. Will keep on trying ammy's, think i can still get better.
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04/16/2013 10:28 PMPosted by gotaplanstan
Gonna be interesting to see if you still feel this way after you craft another REALLY nice thing that's WAY outside your budget, like that amulet.

Honestly, it's not going to change. I'm no more for or against crafting as I always have been - I will always advocate a measured approach to crafting. One thing I've learned when dealing with RNG type of things (like when I was playing online poker with some pretty decent success many years back) is that one shouldn't get too high when it's good and get too low when it's not.

One of the things that I am aware of is the rough idea of the odds of crafting something like what I did. Granted, my amulet I got after a total of about 35 tries, I'd be a fool to suggest that everyone would get what I got after that amount. The odds of getting these affixes (let alone quality) is probably at the very least 1 in 1,000 (the open socket was a bonus to me but the other 4 are absolutely in my high priority list) and likely a lot worse (since my estimate of the number of affixes in my OP is actually less than the number of affixes offered by amulets).

Probably won't start crafting again until my gold balance exceeds 60M again, and I'll set aside another 5M for crafting gloves and bracers.
Edited by Nameless#1537 on 4/17/2013 7:07 AM PDT
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Honestly, it's not going to change. I'm no more for or against crafting as I always have been - I will always advocate a measured approach to crafting.


I think this is a good method if you don't have billions in your bank account. I took a similar approach to crafting when I first started. When my funds were looking up and I couldn't seem to find anything on the AH, I'd set aside 5m gold and just craft 50-100 pairs of whatever I was looking to improve.

The challenge with crafting isn't deciding whether or not to do it at all, but deciding when enough is enough. The decision is easy when looking at Nameless' amulet, which is clearly 1 in a million, but harder when looking at my crafts, which could clearly roll better but are still quite solid.

Again, it comes down to a measured approach. If I had 2 billion in the bank, I'd seek upgrades on all four pieces via crafting.... but at 140m in the bank, I'd rather not get greedy.
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Even if its not optimal making something yourself is more satisfying. Kinda like buying used car vs new, adopting vs mass deposits, or grilling your own steak.
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04/17/2013 07:27 AMPosted by TexaStranger
The challenge with crafting isn't deciding whether or not to do it at all, but deciding when enough is enough.

Finally... someone who understands where I am getting at. And I couldn't have put it better myself.

04/17/2013 08:21 AMPosted by Davlok
adopting vs mass deposits

It took me a while to figure out what this mean. LOL.

Mass deposits FTW!
Edited by Nameless#1537 on 4/17/2013 8:55 AM PDT
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04/17/2013 08:44 AMPosted by Nameless
The challenge with crafting isn't deciding whether or not to do it at all, but deciding when enough is enough.

Finally... someone who understands where I am getting at. And I couldn't have put it better myself.

Your argument has always seemed more along the lines of, "If you're poor, you're better off investing that money in the AH since you know what you're getting from it" though. This is decidedly different from what TS is saying.

Your argument (or how I've been reading it) is, "The challenge with crafting is knowing when it makes financial sense to do it at all."

TS seems to be saying, "You should absolutely craft, just don't do it too much if you're poor."
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04/17/2013 10:52 AMPosted by Piffle
TS seems to be saying, "You should absolutely craft, just don't do it too much if you're poor."


I have never approached crafting in a scientific way, but this thread has made me think a lot more about the proper methodology surrounding crafting.

What I am trying to say is that the decision to craft is based on two variables:
1) the absolute amount of gold you possess
2) the current quality of your crafted items

The first variable is pretty simple. You need some minimum amount of gold to even craft, so it may not be the best option for the very poor. Conversely, if you had infinite gold, there is absolutely no reason why you shouldn't craft millions of each item.

The second variable is far more interesting and complicating, in my opinion, because it gets more at the probability of this whole crafting game. Like I outline in my earlier post, it's easy to know when you have found a godly item, but much harder when you get a "pretty good" craft. I'm facing this challenge right now... I have 140m gold, which is enough to craft a LOT more items, but I'm worried that my current crafts are of a sufficient quality that I may not be rewarded with an upgrade.

TL;DR

You should absolutely craft until you find an upgrade, just don't overdo it if the probability of crafting an upgrade is highly unlikely given your existing budget.
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Your argument has always seemed more along the lines of, "If you're poor, you're better off investing that money in the AH since you know what you're getting from it" though. This is decidedly different from what TS is saying.

Your argument (or how I've been reading it) is, "The challenge with crafting is knowing when it makes financial sense to do it at all."

TS seems to be saying, "You should absolutely craft, just don't do it too much if you're poor."

This is a very important distinction.

I'll never agree with your (Nameless) reasoning though, because it's way too conservative for me.

A big reason why I'm still playing the game is because of the positive changes they've continued to make, and crafting was the biggest change thus far. So many people (myself included) have already had INCREDIBLY positive results crafting, there's plenty of proof there's BIG upside.

Sure there's others who have had absolutely awful luck with it, like Druin, but you WILL get upgrades if you do it enough. The same could be said for drops. But some of us (myself included) have had absolutely AWFUL luck with drops, so it's more worth it to spend money crafting. Also considering the cost of upgrades at this point.

When I get the PS3 version and play it with my psn friends, I'll be crafting as soon as I hit 60 and spending most/all of my money doing so. The potential WAY more than makes up for the gold sink.
-------------

The most important distinction that should be made, is that the OPINIONS you've expressed so far are just that. You're conservative with your spending, and others (like myself) are not. Just an important distinction for people new to the thread should be aware of.

It's probably easiest to break it down like this:

A) if you have poor RNG luck with drops - craft
B) if you have poor RNG luck crafting - farm/AH

I really don't think money has ANYTHING to do with it either way, because you gain ALL the mats (including gold) just by playing the game.
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@Piffle @TexaStranger @gotaplanstan
Thank you for your posts and your thoughts. This has all given me a lot of food for thought and has helped me clarify some of my positions around crafting, as these posts have challenged some of the way that I have been thinking. Truth be told, I believe that I have come across more conservative than I mean, but I also admit to being more conservative than most other people when it comes to use of gold/money.

When I first started the thread, my intention was to investigate the odds around crafting so that I could formulate some kind of strategic approach on what ordering of slots I would advocate for, based on actual numbers and probabilities. I have gotten many of those ideas in the earlier pages and I need to start working on actual numbers to put this together. Once I know what the odds are for crafting what I want, I believe I can make better decisions about what order to craft so that I can craft with the odds as opposed to against it. And all of this was done with the assumption that crafting was going to be done.

But somewhere along the way, I think I got sidetracked into conversations about whether or when to craft. I think it started when I saw some posts from well-meaning monks advocating a crafting-heavy upgrade strategy to very poorly geared monks who have made some (in my opinion) bad decisions on core pieces of their monk. In those situations, I would advocate fixing what is wrong with your monk first before you start crafting because excellently crafted pieces do not make up for poor gearing decisions.

With that said, I think I need to clarify some things here. I don't think I have ever had an ultra conservative view towards crafting -- it has not been about whether to craft, but it has been about how to use it and how much you spend on it. The only people I would strongly discourage from crafting are people who are poor (in gold) and poorly geared (<80K DPS with poor rolls all over the place). At anything under 100K DPS, upgrades can be had for pretty cheap if you gear wisely - and by cheap, I mean that you can often find upgrades for well under 10M which isn't that hard to save up for when you consider that you are probably able to sell some of your loot for 500K here and 1M there to get to that point (stuff that I normally don't try to sell nowadays).

But when you get to a certain gear level where upgrades become very pricey, then crafting becomes your best (and often times) only option because everything else would seem to be out of reach. The decision here becomes interesting because it's a question of how much gold to allocate towards crafting. In @gotaplanstan's case, it seems you are quite happy to allocate all of your gold towards crafting. In my case, I lean towards @TexaStranger's approach towards a more measured and disciplined approach towards crafting.

And yes, @gotaplanstan... it is my opinion. I will always have a preference to maintaining a certain balance in my accounts and hopes of watching it grow. Ultimately, I prefer not to be poor and for me to do that, discipline (not ultra conservatism) is my friend.
Edited by Nameless#1537 on 4/17/2013 10:19 PM PDT
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With that said, I think I need to clarify some things here. I don't think I have ever had an ultra conservative view towards crafting -- it has not been about whether to craft, but it has been about how to use it and how much you spend on it.

Honestly I see no worthwhile counter-argument to spending all of your materials to the point of running out, then crafting whatever you can with whatever you find. That's what I've done since the patch and it hasn't restricted my upgrading process (mostly because I simply don't find enough stuff worth enough money to buy upgrades to begin with) in any way.
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Honestly I see no worthwhile counter-argument to spending all of your materials to the point of running out, then crafting whatever you can with whatever you find. That's what I've done since the patch and it hasn't restricted my upgrading process (mostly because I simply don't find enough stuff worth enough money to buy upgrades to begin with) in any way.

And I guess that's your opinion. It may have been this crafting / upgrading philosophy that has led you to the point that you are (in terms of being gold-poor -- that's what I'm speculating right now). And when people are gold poor, they have essentially stopped (or given up) looking for upgrades that are affordable (because they probably don't exist when one has very little gold in one's account) because the mountain they have to climb (in terms of saving for a decent upgrade) seems so great that they'd sooner just spend on crafting in hopes for an upgrade.

My argument is more preventative in that I would say don't go down that path. Always have gold ready for an upgrade (no matter how small) because you can always sell your current piece for a profit (or at least a sizeable return if your original purchase was done wisely). Remain disciplined in crafting so that you can drop gold on an upgrade when the opportunity arises. And please don't confuse discipline with (ultra) conservatism - there may be overlap, but very different in my book.

What gold in your account does is give you the luxury of choice. When you don't have gold, you don't have that luxury and you are restricted to only one avenue for upgrades (until you have a magical drop) which would be via crafting. When you do have the luxury of choice, you have more decisions to make and it is from that basis I am making my case towards a disciplined approach towards crafting. For me, it is through a disciplined approach towards spending that I am able to wield two different sets of gear -- one for my DW monk and one for my 2H TR/Bell monk that are both equally effective for different purposes, all without ever touching RMAH and no AH flipping (differentiating that from my stance around profitable upgrading). I could have also chosen to not go the 2H route, save about 40M gold and dedicate those funds towards upgrading my DW monk. Point is, I had the luxury to make that choice.

Another case in point, with the gold in my account, I just sniped another socketed LS EF stat stick for 10M this morning that gave 3% LS (vs 2.8%), lower fear proc than my old one (11.0% vs. 11.9%) and upgraded my DW monk by about 3K DPS (from 158K to ~161.5K sheet DPS). Something I wouldn't be able to do if I was dirt poor. I am still routinely finding upgrades on my monk that are costing me less than 20M a pop (in some cases <10M), even at my DPS level. True, those upgrades are harder to find, but they are still out there. And lately, each time I upgrade I also end up with roughly the same amount of gold in my account after selling my old item, if not more. I have also made a conscious decision not to upgrade my gems in my chest & pants because I am still routinely able to find better upgrades for my items that will yield me more return than upgrading my gems - but I am getting close to the point of being able to upgrade my emeralds one or two pieces at a time (where the cost/DPS gain from upgrading the gems becomes roughly equivalent to the cost/DPS gain of any other item).

Is crafting part of my upgrade strategy? If you look at my profile, you can see that it is -- I wouldn't have my bracers or my amulet if it weren't and it will continue to be. But it occupies a very small proportion of my gold usage, which is a very conscious decision I am making about how I choose to spend my gold. And I can assure you that I will be dedicating a larger amount of gold (probably same proportion) to crafting as my gold balance climbs towards the 100M mark (at that point, dropping 10M on crafting will be much easier than dropping 10M on crafting when I only have 10M in my account).

And so with that said, when I do look at your monk (I know you didn't ask, but I'm doing this for the sake of argument), I see two spots that, combined, can give you a nice DPS upgrade with little impact to EHP (and even the remote possibility of increasing it) that probably won't be astronomical in price, and allow you to sell your current pieces at a decent price and be on your way to having gold ready to spring on cheap upgrades on your toon. It's just a matter of making those upgrades a priority and exercising discipline in your spending to get to that point.

Is this a "worthwhile counter-argument to spending all of your materials to the point of running out"? That's up to the reader to decide. For me, I believe that it is a solid one.
Edited by Nameless#1537 on 4/18/2013 8:13 AM PDT
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