Diablo® III

Patches and economy

I have a question aimed at players who have been here through a number of major patches.

With the nice new things happening in 1.0.8, I expect monster density and multiplayer bonuses to bring back a lot of people who have stopped playing the game. The question I have is, will this drive up the cost of items in the AH?

Basically, gold will probably get more expensive when there are more people buying it. That seems obvious, but what happens with items seems less obvious to me. More people will be farming and selling stuff, and more people will be buying it. Can experienced players (who have been through this cycle many times before) tell me whether my ability to spend gold on great items will be better or worse after the patch comes out and we have more players around?
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The more people playing the more stable the economy is. So it's a good thing if more people are playing. It doesn't mean more expensive or cheaper necessarily... but it does mean more stable. Which means you have a better chance of getting what an item is worth when you find it... and getting a good deal on items you want to buy.

Think of it like this... you have more sellers selling stuff... which means cheaper prices... but at the same time you have more buyers buying stuff...which means higher prices. Combine the two and the market stabilizes.
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I don't care about the actual value of items. I just want to know what I'd have a better chance of buying items that would help me play through mp10 more easily if I waited to buy until after the patch comes out.

I figure long time players who watch the AH (something I hate to do) have noticed a clear trend.
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No, you have a better chance now.

Items either have an exorbitant value or they have no value. There's really no middle ground right now. You can deck out a character for a very small amount of gold.
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I do not think this patch is bringing back anybody.
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IMO prices generally go up.

As time goes on more and more gear will get cheaper. Think of gear on a scale of 1-100. Currently people might have on average gear at the 98th percentile. This means nobody really wants that gear, and thus its useless. As time goes on that avg gear percentile goes up. However, it's really only for the players that are playing. So if someone took a break at the 98th percentile and comes back at the patch and the avg gear score of the currently playing players is 99th percentile, then he's going to have a demand for the average gear of the time. Hence there is a increase in demand for "average" items.

I hope I explained this properly. In other words, your gear is constantly depreciating unless it's BiS, and if someone hasn't played in a while they're gear has depreciated to the point that they will have a demand for the items that current players have. In practice, unless you have absolutely top end gear, this wont make much of a difference.

There's also the factor of group efficiency going up, which might mean that people will be getting more drops due to the multiplayer bonuses, and increased monster density, which can put a downward pressure on prices.
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04/17/2013 04:33 PMPosted by EonReD
No, you have a better chance now.


What changes about 1.08 mean items will go up in cost?

04/17/2013 04:30 PMPosted by DarrelShark
I don't care about the actual value of items. I just want to know what I'd have a better chance of buying items that would help me play through mp10 more easily if I waited to buy until after the patch comes out.


If you don't care about the price then what exactly are you asking about? Because how "easy" or how "hard" it is to buy items from the AH is on price. If you don't care about price then it doesn't matter when you buy them.

There are no new items coming in the next patch... however, there could be an influx of players, meaning more items droping. But with the new changes to mod density and co-op... that could mean more players farming more, possibly on higher MP levels, and trying to builds for more co-op oriented play... so basically needing more items. How prices will fluxuate depends on how many people come back and what they do. But if you don't care about price I am not really sure what you are asking about then... what do you mean by "...having a better chance to get items..." ??
Edited by BannedName#1439 on 4/17/2013 4:42 PM PDT
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What I mean is, if the economy is more stable, that doesn't really help me determine whether BiS class items will be cheaper now or later. With more monster density more people will farm and there will be more demand, yes, but one may outweigh the other, but it's hard to guess which since I never played much before 1.0.6-7.

Basically trying to figure out whether I should spend the money I'm sitting on now. I'd like to be able to play better at higher MPs with my barb, WD (FishCutter not Ednafe, for people who are looking) and Wiz than I currently can.
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04/17/2013 04:52 PMPosted by DarrelShark
What I mean is, if the economy is more stable, that doesn't really help me determine whether BiS class items will be cheaper now or later.


If by BiS you mean items going for like 200+ mill then buy it now because those are always getting more expensive due to gold inflation. If you mean items less than that, it's a toss up but I don't think it'll matter too much
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I think it's a toss up because increase monster density, should in theory, raise the amount of BiS items. On the other hand, the increase of legendary drops means the less chance of getting the hot selling legendaries. Gold on the other hand won't go up, more people wanting gold means more people selling gold.

The only time items lose or gain value is after patches with class buffs and nerfs. For instance before the IAS nerf, IAS gear with dex was going for astronomical amounts. The only really class buff is too rapid fire, if it turns out to be good you could probably make some gold off that. As for whether you should buy now or later is really uncertain. The market could go either way.
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Historically we see a very minor bump on the value of RMAH gold.
A couple pennies or more especially during peak times.
This boon tends to last around 1-2 weeks and then quickly drops to below the rate they were before.

Put another way...
The economy is more volatile for a couple of weeks after a patch.
Their is a big opportunity to cash in or get screwed over based on expectations.

1.0.8 in particularly has the least impact on the economy vs the other major patches.
I wouldn't be surprised if the economy settles inside a 1-2 days instead of 1-2 weeks.
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It was the itemization announcement (with an assist by BOA) which is not even in the next patch that was the main cause of the most recent collapse in prices. And it will not get better until all of us see what itemization is.

For what it's worth I'm selling everything I'm not using so I expect prices for everything to go down.
Cheap is cheap though. I'd gear up with less expensive stuff now.
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So the effects on prices are largely unpredictable I guess.

04/17/2013 05:52 PMPosted by FMARR
Gold on the other hand won't go up, more people wanting gold means more people selling gold.


I disagree about this part. I think the price of gold, aside from occasional spikes, will continue to decrease forever due to botters. Less players buying gold, but still tons of people/bots harvesting and selling it.

One thing I'm doing is holding onto some expensive items for now and planning to sell them after the patch. I'm expecting that more demand will outweigh greater supply, at least for a while.

After the itemization changes happen, whenever that is, anything could happen, but I wouldn't bet on lots of current (new legacy) items still having their same value.
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I wouldn't bet on lots of current (new legacy) items still having their same value.


Every BIS become $0 once expansion come. Not single 6 affix lv 63 item can better a 7 affix lv 73 item
Edited by MADTHUNDER2#3452 on 4/17/2013 7:16 PM PDT
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No, you have a better chance now.

Items either have an exorbitant value or they have no value. There's really no middle ground right now. You can deck out a character for a very small amount of gold.


This, a lot of people will caution to not re-gear before a patch, I say if you know that the items u want are NOT going to go down in value (in this case it's not since the 1.08 patch has nothing to do with itemization), u go ahead and get them now.
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What changes about 1.08 mean items will go up in cost?


No changes will. Simply the increase in amounts of players could if people start buying stuff, but that is just speculation. Chances are 1.08 could come and go and the OP will be able to buy items at the same prices.
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04/17/2013 04:34 PMPosted by kastermaster
I do not think this patch is bringing back anybody.


That is probably the correct answer. It will bring some back, but not hordes. Many of the millions that left are never coming back. Not even a function of the game being good or bad. They are on to other things.
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