Diablo® III

An analysis of crafting 101 Archon Gloves

I crafted 101 Archon Int Gloves.
I recorded all the rolls in Excel.

Here are some summary statistic (which would look nice if the forums used a fixed width font):

-------- Count - Avg ---- StdDev - Min -- Max
Str ---- 50 ---- 90.0 --- 39.9 --- 29 --- 198
Dex ---- 65 ---- 112.8 -- 49.8 --- 32 --- 246
Int ---- 101 --- 228.1 -- 27.0 --- 201 -- 311
Vit ---- 50 ---- 83.0 --- 35.0 --- 26 --- 163

Arcane - 17 ---- 46.8 --- 10.1 --- 27 --- 59
Fire --- 12 ---- 46.8 --- 9.8 ---- 27 --- 58
Cold --- 11 ---- 44.7 --- 12.6 --- 26 --- 60
Light -- 19 ---- 45.7 --- 10.3 --- 26 --- 59
Poison - 15 ---- 43.7 --- 9.2 ---- 26 --- 57
Physic - 11 ---- 45.5 --- 10.0 --- 32 --- 60

ResAll - 25 ---- 47.7 ---- 24.9 --- 13 --- 80
IAS ---- 11 ---- 7.4 ----- 1.2 ---- 5 ---- 9 (confidence interval on IAS count is ~5 to ~17)
Armor -- 29 ---- 199.6 --- 52.9 --- 87 --- 263
CD ----- 23 ---- 33.3 ---- 10.3 --- 20 --- 50 (confidence interval on CD count is ~15 to ~31)
Gold F - 26 ---- 19.3 ---- 3.3 ---- 14 --- 25
Regen -- 28 ---- 154.3 --- 92.5 --- 19 --- 330
Magic F- 25 ---- 17.0 ---- 2.7 ---- 11 --- 20
Thorns - 22 ---- 589.4 --- 473.8 -- 70 --- 1352
CC ----- 16 ---- 7.3 ----- 1.5 ---- 5.5 -- 10 (confidence interval on CC count is ~9 to ~24)
Stun --- 1 ----- 2.7 ----- Inf ---- 2.7 -- 2.7
Potion - 19 ---- 4595.9 -- 3277.8 - 1426 - 12016
PickUp - 17 ---- 6.3 ----- 0.8 ---- 5 ---- 7
IDL ---- 3 ----- 0 ------- Inf ---- 0 ---- 0
Lvl Req- 4 ----- 6.8 ----- 3.4 ---- 2 ---- 10

Important Observations:
[1] With high probability IAS, CC, and CD roll with different likelihoods. Thus, it matters which stats you want if you are looking for a bifecta.
[2] 85 out of 101 gloves a resistance of one kind or another. Thus, as the resistances stand now, 84% of 6-affix gloves might as well be 5 affix gloves
[3] 12 out of 101 gloves rolled with no Str or Dex. Thus, many many rolls contribute only str or dex to Int Archon Gloves
[4] The Standard deviation of Potion/HealthGlobe is extremely high with respect its average value. Thus, this affix ranges from near pointless (at 1426) to quite valueable (at 12016)
[5] The same will be true of thorns if it gets mega-buffed into a valueable stat

Back of the envelope calculation about how much gold is need to craft trifecta gloves:
11/108 * 23/101 * 16/101 = 0.00393

1/.00393 = 254.52 So, a quick a dirty (way overly optimistic) calculation says it will take about 255 crafts to roll trifecta gloves.
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I always believed that % chance to proc effects was a rare roll based on auction house results and the fact that in ~150 glove rolls I have not yet rolled a single % chance to stun.
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How common was resist all and any 2 of the trifecta? Or does resist all eliminate any one of the three by default?
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appreciate this. please keep sharing your data.
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Interesting. I might do the same thing tonight, I was thinking of crafting ~100 pairs.
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If you take screenshots of all gloves I'll incorporate that data
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04/03/2013 06:29 PMPosted by ChuckNorris
appreciate this. please keep sharing your data.


No problem, I want to do this with ammys too...but I don't have the funds to collect enough data to shown anything interesting.
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1/.00393 = 254.52 So, a quick a dirty (way overly optimistic) calculation says it will take about 255 crafts to roll trifecta gloves.


I'm at 600 dex gloves and 0 trifecta. My best so far have been CC/CD and some vit (less than 100).

Overall, your sample size is quite small (as I'm sure you're aware).
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04/03/2013 05:41 PMPosted by OBS0733T
How common was resist all and any 2 of the trifecta? Or does resist all eliminate any one of the three by default?


I got a bifecta with RA exactly once (the gloves I'm wearing).

I got 5 bifecta's
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1/.00393 = 254.52 So, a quick a dirty (way overly optimistic) calculation says it will take about 255 crafts to roll trifecta gloves.


I'm at 600 dex gloves and 0 trifecta. My best so far have been CC/CD and some vit (less than 100).

Overall, your sample size is quite small (as I'm sure you're aware).


Oh, I'm aware. As I said, the 255 is way too optimistic. It doesn't account for the fact that once I roll CC i have fewer rolls to hit a CD....and once I hit CC AND CD I have even fewer rolls to hit IAS. So the 255 number is stupid wrong.

Earlier I did some math trying to estimate something the probability assuming each affix was equally likely...but then I realized that that math would be wrong because the affixes are not equally likely. Thus the "(3 choose 3) * (2 choose 15) / (5 choose 18)" type solution is very wrong.
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Do you have each individual roll somewhere? I'd be interesting to break down the pure main stat rolls and the hybrid main stat rolls. It would be a lot of work though...
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I'm interested on data processing like this - but too lazy to do it manually myself. I will be making ~250 vit amus and 100 hellfire rings within these 2 days - so if anybody interested i can share the video with you - but if you only willing to make similar analysis to this post.

Or if you can tell me how to do this automatically...
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04/03/2013 07:46 PMPosted by Rapap
Do you have each individual roll somewhere? I'd be interesting to break down the pure main stat rolls and the hybrid main stat rolls. It would be a lot of work though...


Yes, one excel spread sheet....~24 rows and 110 columns
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I'm interested on data processing like this - but too lazy to do it manually myself. I will be making ~250 vit amus and 100 hellfire rings within these 2 days - so if anybody interested i can share the video with you - but if you only willing to make similar analysis to this post.

Or if you can tell me how to do this automatically...


If you video the entire ammy process I might make this. I want to ammy data...I just don't have the funds to pay for it
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I will take screenshots of them. I will add you in game to figure out how you want me to send you them
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04/03/2013 08:24 PMPosted by MakDog
I will take screenshots of them. I will add you in game to figure out how you want me to send you them


Sounds good...going to bed now though...I'm on the east coast
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f you video the entire ammy process I might make this. I want to ammy data...I just don't have the funds to pay for it


Of course. I did video record the whole process for both my hellfire rings for me barb and monk. I will do the same with this round of vit amu and vit HR.
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If anyone else want to record a bunch of int glove's I'd be happy to incorporate that data as well
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Idol
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I was going to last night, but i was short gold..a zuni chest sold for 5 mil so im good now :)

I have a few weeks off work due to injury so i will do my crafts later today sometime when i wake up.

Lets get a good database going!
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