Diablo® III

Show me your GG craft Shoulder craft plz

Wanted to bid on some shoulders last night with

268 str
175 vit
5% life
7x All Res

However, I didn't because the cost would easily be the same as making 3k craftable ones. There's still hope for me!


Yeah and if you roll VIT shoulders you'll get more VIT than that easily!
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I'm wearing mine.

I didn't realize you could get such high str on vit shoulders, otherwise i would have gone that road. I seem to be missing a lot of life, but over 300 str and 80 al res
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I've been told mine are pretty good.
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mine are pretty good on Female barb and the ones on male barb arent to bad either
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I have only just come back and tried once.

Str bites, but the rest of the shoulders are pretty darn strong:

Str. 74
Vit 278
AR 79
Life 12%
Globes + 5681
Regen 116 (yuck, Why no STR????)
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Im wearing mine right now...

Great affix's... just a lowish str roll to bum me out. :(
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04/30/2013 07:42 AMPosted by PhatPhoEater
why do you guys keep track of how many you rolled?

For a while I kept a record of the distribution of stats on my crafts. A few people have posted their results along those lines. If you know the probability of each stat, you can estimate the expected number of crafts needed to get what you want. Plus I like numbers.
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Mine are OK Still going for better, more STR and vit would be nice!
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04/30/2013 12:28 PMPosted by gooball
why do you guys keep track of how many you rolled?

For a while I kept a record of the distribution of stats on my crafts. A few people have posted their results along those lines. If you know the probability of each stat, you can estimate the expected number of crafts needed to get what you want. Plus I like numbers.


If anyone thinks that they can predict how many crafts it will take to get the desired combo of affixes, they should be prepared for disappointment. As they say, RNG is RNG.

Even if we had the exact probabilities of each affix frequency and could calculate the odds of a single craft to get the combo we want, each future craft has no relationship to the previous 5 or 5million. Your odds of rolling the combo you want are the same every time you craft.
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If anyone thinks that they can predict how many crafts it will take to get the desired combo of affixes, they should be prepared for disappointment. As they say, RNG is RNG.

Even if we had the exact probabilities of each affix frequency and could calculate the odds of a single craft to get the combo we want, each future craft has no relationship to the previous 5 or 5million. Your odds of rolling the combo you want are the same every time you craft.

I agree with you, don't depend on an individual craft to get what you want. And just because all the previous ones were sucky doesn't mean the next will be any better.

My point was that long term averages of independent events are predictable. Knowing the affix frequencies, it is valid to say that e.g. over a total 500 crafts, there's an 80% chance of getting a godly combo.

I want to know the expected return. Am I likely (not guaranteed) to need 500 crafts to get what I want, or 5000, or 50000? That's something I can calculate, and which influences my playing strategy...if it were 50000 I doubt that I'd bother.
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Unfortunately, in most situations like crafting, an individual will never come close to being able to craft in the "long term."
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My barb is wearing my personal best took me around 40-50 trys. rest of my gear is meh atm being borrowed to friends.

598 armor
235 Str
100 dex
289 Vit
49 AR
+armor affix.
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Mine aren't the best around as far as the strength roll goes, but one will be hard pressed to beat them as far as EHP goes. I am wearing them now.

195 Strength
291 Vit
50 Int
73 All Resist
12% Life

Not gonna roll anymore shoulders for awhile, I can improve on my bracers and amulet first.
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299 STR
201 VIT
80 AR
56 DEX
74 INT
96 Life/Sec
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Rolled these guys 2 nights ago.

587 armor
231 Str
38 Dex
227 Vit
72 All Res
8% Life

Also rolled my amulet last week :)

I'd say around 150 shoulder crafts and 250 amulets.
Edited by Fatmantan#6208 on 5/1/2013 9:09 PM PDT
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Mine got the highest str :)
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267 str
325 vit
69 int
59 AR
5% life

crafted these recently and my hp has gone full retard, lol.

brb looking up some str inna's...
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04/30/2013 02:36 PMPosted by PhatPhoEater
Unfortunately, in most situations like crafting, an individual will never come close to being able to craft in the "long term."


Depends what you call long term... While I agree that any individual roll of the dice will always into itself have the same chance of Win or Fail, but when looking at a multitude of rolls the overall probability of getting a win increases in proportion to the possible outcomes.

For Instance... If you had to guess a number between 1 and 10. And you only had once chance, your chances of wining would be 10%. However if you got to choose 5 numbers, then each time you played under those particular rules you would have a 50% chance of success.

Of course rolling a good piece of gear doesn't give you the choice, so each roll would represent a random choice, but never the less each consecutive random roll would almost always lower the potential left over loosing possibilities. The more tickets you buy the more chances you have to win.

So yes, the odds of a Satisfactory roll can be calculated and a probability determined. Of course it will only be a probablility due to the uncertainity of each individual roll. So Like it was mentioned above x amount of rolls may result in 80% chance of success, yet it may take double of the amount of rolls to increase that chance of success to 90%, and yet you still may need more rolls... etc..
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For Instance... If you had to guess a number between 1 and 10. And you only had once chance, your chances of wining would be 10%. However if you got to choose 5 numbers, then each time you played under those particular rules you would have a 50% chance of success.


This is only true if you are able to choose 5 times per set over a number of sets approaching infinity. In a single set of 5 guesses you may not guess the number. In the next set you may also not guess the number. Over many sets of guesses the average will be 50%. Thats the long term.

Just because you can predict over a set of tries approaching infinity, you can't predict with enough power in 5 or 500 tries. Each guess is still 10%. Even the single guess probability of 10% is not great. You can take a string of 100 guesses and be off the predicted 10%, similar to the number of heads you might see in 100 coin flips.

If the way you describe these probabilities to actually function, gamblers would never go broke playing "good" games like craps. You'd expect them to only lose 1.2% playing the pass line and odds. These calculations only apply to the long term. The long term in Diablo is not 500 tries or 5000 tries.

People are also disregarding the extra steps in getting a high roll AFTER getting the desired affix.

edit: i'm not a mathematician, but this is how I understand probability to work.
Edited by PhatPhoEater#1370 on 5/1/2013 6:51 AM PDT
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05/01/2013 06:50 AMPosted by PhatPhoEater
For Instance... If you had to guess a number between 1 and 10. And you only had once chance, your chances of wining would be 10%. However if you got to choose 5 numbers, then each time you played under those particular rules you would have a 50% chance of success.


The method of calculation here is still assuming you will hit 1 number out of the 5 out of the 10. Crafting in this game is more like pulling 5 times...but only pulling 1 out of 10 (compounding)...and then replenishing the pool with the one you pulled out after each pull.

The probability is only increased in two ways:

(1) Once an affix has been selected, it will not roll for x number of rolls (i.e. you pull a ball out of the hat of 100 possibilities and don't put it back in before selecting the next one)

(2) You have more than one chance at each affix to roll on a piece of gear. (i.e. you want to pull a red ball and the pool has 50 out of 100 red balls in it).

In this case, we have a specific "perfect" combination of stats: Str, Vit, AR, Life%, Armor

On vit shoulders, only 1 of those affixes is guaranteed...and the others is a combination of affixes that get thrown back in to the affix pool every time (i.e. option 1 above).

The replenishment of the affix pool will always make each craft random. There is a 100% probability that you will pull 1 stat...and a 0 to 100% probability you will pull any of the other desired stats.

The chances of getting a good pair of shoulders is much much better than the standard 6 number lottery, only because we don't have 50 affixes to choose from. We are looking for the perfect set of affixes amongst 20-30 different possibilities.

Calculating how many crafts it will take to hit this "better-odds" lottery is still mathematically impossible. You can formulate a model that will display your range of craft count possibilities...but can not calculate when you will hit the desired target amongst that range.
Edited by Pri#1584 on 5/1/2013 7:59 AM PDT
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