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My barbs shoulders - rolled em as strength before everyone figured out vit was cool. I probably rolled less than 50 to get them and can't go back now cause the str is too high....
33 Lightning resist
57 All resist
These will do...
I made mine after about 20-ish rolls:
45 arcane resistance
290 hp regeneration
My necklace unfortunately has taken about 100+ rolls to get it, and I still need to make one with higher critical hit chance.
@ probability nerds in this thread --
I believe what Phatpho is referring to is the idea that over the long run, you will lose more money by buying 1000 lottery tickets vs. buying 1. If this was not the case, casinos and lotteries would not be profitable enterprises. They clearly are. Assuming you have only 1% loss rate, the guy buying 1000 tickets should expect to lose $10 overall, whereas the guy who bought 1 ticket can expect to lose 10 cents.
So I am much better off buying 1 (preferably zero) lottery tickets than I am buying a ticket a week for the rest of my life.
This analogy fails for D3 because it's a game :-0. Craft if it is fun, don't if it's not.
@ probability nerds in this thread --
I 100% agree with that... However were playing the game, so we automatically generate the Cash (mats and materials), by the fact were playing, so were not really paying for the tickets. What else are we going to do with the mats anyway? I case could be made that were better off just saving our gold and selling our mats to purchase of the AH, but generally It looks like crafting is a much cheaper alternative for BIS items.
I don't recall ever getting paid by Casino for time spent there, and then turning around and using that money to gamble with.... So there is quite a difference there. but that would be really kewl if it worked that way.
Im not arguing against crafting. I don't think I would ever be able to afford the stuff I've crafted. I just don't think it's useful to think we can expect to roll good craftables in x tries. This notion that "I've rolled 500 and I got nothing good."
It's the same thing as the gamblers fallacy. "I've had crap luck, so I must be due." *reaches for more money.*
I'm not making the point the resources can be used in a better way. Just don't delude yourself into thinking that you must be due. I craft fully expecting to get crap, and I dont think that the ammys i roll tonight or tomorrow have anything to do with the hundreds I've vendored.
I told myself I was going to stop at 500 ammys, then it was 1000, well now im over 2000 with nothing great to show for it. And now I keep thinking, "I'm so far into it I may as well keep going"..... Ugh.
Rolling gloves and shoulders, taking a break from the ammys.
Heavy on the defense stats, but I'm really happy with the roll:
Those are nice
Edited by RagingKoala#1984 on 5/1/2013 6:21 PM PDT
Guys it is just statistical benchmark, no need to prove the RNG theory.
It is good to know if people do generally get over 500 stats on below 100-200 tries so you know where you are in zones of normal distribution.
A good way to cheer up yourself on a bad crafting day, seeing success & fail stories.
But seriously, I am on the minority comparing to the general, hope my luck is coming soon.
The black smith hates me; it may or may not be because I killed his wife...
Hey when you're desperate... if there's enough skin left in the right places and/or no teeth... :p
Hang in there! With some luck that sunk cost fallacy will pay off for you someday ;)
Edited by Valmont#1487 on 5/1/2013 7:39 PM PDT
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