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Im not arguing against crafting. I don't think I would ever be able to afford the stuff I've crafted. I just don't think it's useful to think we can expect to roll good craftables in x tries. This notion that "I've rolled 500 and I got nothing good."
This is absolutely correct. Past rolls have nothing to with future or present odds. Each roll is an independent event.
Saying how many attempts it took to get a particular result isn't helpful because simple math can answer that question for you already.
For example, let's say there're 4 affixes--A, B, C, and D--, and you only desire 2 of them (A and B). Assume the probability of rolling any affix is equal, i.e. 25%. The item in question can only have 2 affixes. What's the probability I roll A and B on my item? 0.25 * 0.25 = 0.0625. This means that I would expect that for every sixteen tries I would expect to see one item roll those 2 affixes.
Now in practice this calculation gets much more complicated for several reasons. First, there're more affixes. Second, each affix can roll a certain range. And, thirdly, there's probably a limit on how many times you can roll a certain affix. In other words, it would strike me as nonsensical for a shoulder to be able roll strength every time for each affix slot (correct me if I'm wrong here).
Nevertheless, the basic principle holds true. The desired outcome has a certain low probability. Let's say one in a thousand, for a roll consisting of str, vit, AR, and %life. To know how many attempts you may need to reach that desired result, you need only look at the probability and take its reciprocal. In this case, it would take about 1000 attempts for you to expect to see something close to what you're looking for (hypothetical of course).
Edited by sartois#1275 on 5/2/2013 4:19 PM PDT
It's a gamble, pure luck, RNG, dude.
Someone can roll trifecta Ammy in less than 50 tries, someone can't even got in 1000 tries.
I can't get a good Dex shoulder until now for more than 150 tries, but got my VIT roll at 9th tries; and also a good STR roll in 50 tries.
This is the reason why I still playing rather than camp at AH. Do you want to play flipping king to earn upgrade or casual play for DE to have the lottery feeling? :)
Happy farming and keep it rolling!!
This is absolutely correct. Past rolls have nothing to with future or present odds. Each roll is an independent event.Saying how many attempts it took to get a particular result isn't helpful because simple math can answer that question for you already.For example, let's say there're 4 affixes--A, B, C, and D--, and you only desire 2 of them (A and B). Assume the probability of rolling any affix is equal, i.e. 25%.
It is still pretty helpful because it gives you an approximation of how many crafts you can expect before you get your lucky craft. How accurate that is? well its better than nothing.
And I'm not so sure all affixes have equal probablility, furthermore, you also have to consider which values will be acceptable, so the maths gets a lot more complicated than that.
For example, I have been crafting thousands of amulets on the PTR (to get an idea of the chances of getting a really good one) and I am quite consistently getting a lot fewer IAS rolls than CC and CD, CD seems to be more common than CC too, but that's within a statistical margin of error. I'm guessing the same applies to shoulders.
I got my shoulders with:
..on the 6th try, but thats probably a pretty bad estimation of the expected number ;) but still you can get lucky.
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