Diablo® III

How much is 15%?

Ok, so I'm going to do some number crunching here to give a rough estimate of how much gold was injected into the SC market. This is "best guess" rough round numbers blizz math that makes a lot of assumptions for sure.

1) Rate of duplication:
Let's assume that each account involved was creating and canceling 10 auctions every 10 seconds. Sounds pretty reasonable to me. Each time they duplicated 2B gold. That's 60B per minute or 3.6T per hour.

2) Time spend duplicating:
Let's assume that there was a 6 hour window of time where duplication was possible. Let's also assume that each account duplicating had to spend 50% of this time duplicating, and 50% of the time injecting the counterfeit gold into the economy. That gives us 3 hours of duping.

At this point we have 10.8T duplicated per account (3 hours of duping at 3.6T/hour). Blizzard stated that 415 accounts were involved. This would give a grand total of 4482 trillion gold duplicated. 15% of that is 672 trillion.

672 Trillion gold.
Honestly I think that's a pretty conservative estimate. And it is a lot of gold.
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Nah man your math is wrong its really like 2 beez.
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1st, assume that your assumation is correct
1 trillion can by 500x $2b items
672 trillion would meant that 336000 items were outbidded for 2billion
is there really that much 2b items in AH?

2nd, whats the point of keep getting money every second, as mention above, 1t can buy 500x 2b items.
if it were normal people (not auto bot), the most u get is probably 1-2 trillion or so, then they start going on a shopping spree.
so i disagree that 4482 trillion had been made, it is more like 415 x 2t with a few exception that created a lot more, but were not able to insert back in the AH (just sitting at their account balance)
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And the amount of gold and items that are removed from the sc market from bans are worth 10000 x 100 billion = 1000 trillion ( including some rich botting accounts). So the sc market end up with less gold.
Edited by GodIike#1571 on 5/11/2013 6:59 AM PDT
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To be fair the ah was up for two hours max after the patch so it's 1/3 of your sum. In any case a lot.
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amount x .15 = 15%
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The net effect seems to be that everything on the AH has an extra 0 on the end of it. Comparable items that I bought for 1 million are now 10 million.

Without the rollback this is essentially D3: Black Market Edition.
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Ok let's assume the total of duped gold out there = 100 trillion... That means 666.67t gold was duped all together... That's about 1.6t per account with 3 hours of duping per account... That's only 533m per account each hour... Wow the problem isn't nearly as big as we thought!

But let's be serious all we proved here is that we know how to do algebra... With only 1 known variable in our equation it's not really possible to estimate with any real accuracy...
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Your numbers are extremely off. People didn't spend nearly that much time duping gold. I think we have one confirmed count of someone duping more than a trillion, so your 10.8 trillion per person is grossly exaggerated.

You need a bigger tin foil hat :)
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hows this "gold so important"? the game is already long doomed because of bots so I dont get it whats the big deal here

also gold as only currency is bad
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Ok, so I'm going to do some number crunching here to give a rough estimate of how much gold was injected into the SC market. This is "best guess" rough round numbers blizz math that makes a lot of assumptions for sure.

1) Rate of duplication:
Let's assume that each account involved was creating and canceling 10 auctions every 10 seconds. Sounds pretty reasonable to me. Each time they duplicated 2B gold. That's 60B per minute or 3.6T per hour.

2) Time spend duplicating:
Let's assume that there was a 6 hour window of time where duplication was possible. Let's also assume that each account duplicating had to spend 50% of this time duplicating, and 50% of the time injecting the counterfeit gold into the economy. That gives us 3 hours of duping.

At this point we have 10.8T duplicated per account (3 hours of duping at 3.6T/hour). Blizzard stated that 415 accounts were involved. This would give a grand total of 4482 trillion gold duplicated. 15% of that is 672 trillion.

672 Trillion gold.
Honestly I think that's a pretty conservative estimate. And it is a lot of gold.


Those estimates are off because there is no way we will ever know just how much gold has been duped to begin with.

Why do I say that your numbers are way off. It is simple really it is. Answers to the following questions will prove it.

How many players actually sell their gold on the RMAH?
Do players actually buy gold straight from the RMAH instead of purchasing gems with real money and selling them for gold?
What is the best way to buy gold with real money straight up, or buy gems with real money and convert them to gold on the Gold Auction House?
Did all of the players in America start playing the second the patch went live?

I have seen a lot of players come here saying that they cannot sell their gold straight up. Why because the majority of players do not buy their gold from the RMAH straight up. They use their real money to buy gems. Then sell the gems on the gold auction house.

All that is needed is to remove the exact amount of gold duped.
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Posts: 2,043
If one find about 100k in gold per run....
How many runs are done on average per player?
Start there, you will probably get bigger numbers
You have to guesstimate how much gold was generated(and sunk) since release
That number will be past the trillions.

TL;DR 15%(if that's even the truth) duped gold remaining means they should have rolled back.

They keep track of these numbers too, they could tell us.
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As long as they are still going after the 15 percent, and keeping an eye on the audits, hackers, dupers, they will succeed. Blizzard has knows how their program works, they own the game and control it.
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I think their "estimation" of 85% of the gold/items being found, (and working on more) includes ONLY the people who actually used the dupe exploit.

Blizzard is not banning users who took advantage of the situation and spam sold RS gems, or !@#$ legendaries like frostburns for 2 billion each, or other such things.

So even if you accept their figures of 415 users (which is obviously wrong) and 85% (who cares) - then you're ignoring most of the problem. The problem is they are doing NOTHING AT ALL to fix the HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF GOLD that was created and laundered through those methods. This guy for example made 50 billion gold off flipping low-end legendaries at 2 billion a pop, and then used all that gold to buy 500+ unidentified mempos, as well as other items. This was going on FOR FIVE HOURS.

http://www.twitch.tv/skywalkerog420 (free advertisement for him)

Only a rollback would have fixed it. I assume at this point the only valid reason they did not do it was because they don't have that capability. (even though they have done it before on other servers) At this point, I don't blame people for taking advantage of Blizzard's carelessness - because if they hadn't, (like I didn't) then they would be just as far behind as everyone else. As an individual, he probably made himself over a thousand dollars, US, in a day. The fault lies with Blizzard either being unable or unwilling to do a server rollback.
Edited by Daerio#1388 on 5/11/2013 8:31 AM PDT
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05/11/2013 08:09 AMPosted by Silverarrows
As long as they are still going after the 15 percent, and keeping an eye on the audits, hackers, dupers, they will succeed. Blizzard has knows how their program works, they own the game and control it.


You really believe they are going after what is left? The AH is open... money is changing hands. No way they will be able to track it now.

I don't even believe the numbers they gave us to begin with, marketing spin/damage control/PR stunt. They got in there and saw how far and wide the money went and at the 11th hour on Friday said screw it, we got enough and the rest is long gone, been traded through too many accounts, and our AH has been down too long and this is looking bad.

Bring it up and we'll get a statement that makes it sound better than it is.
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We will never know what Blizzard does behind the scenes. THEY OWN THIS GAME AND HAVE THE POWER TO DO ANYTHING WITH IT. THEY CONTROL THE GAME.
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