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Totally free thinking off the top of the domepiece.
My initial thoughts are that the announced ending of the AH in March of '14 will cause a spike - knee jerk - rise in prices, especially of commodities.
3:20PM 9/17: The average cost of Rad Star gems has risen about 30% in 40 minutes.
Next, there will be a drop in prices as people realize March is 6 months away.
EDIT: 9/18 6:49PM - The market in general has corrected to pre-ish (depending on gem level) AH shut down prices.
After that, there will begin a steady, rising climb in the cost of..well...everything. The only thing that will keep this climb hedged is the impending knowledge of Loot 2.0 and RoS. The, "should I buy any upgrades?" question will steadily slide over to, "Nahhh - I'll just wait for XPAC/2.0" with each and every passing day. Could serve as a psychological correction against the tide of "no more availability".
But! That may not happen at all, right?
People may dump gear in a "SELL! SELL! SELL!" panic from now until March. I'd expect pretty amazing gear for sale at reasonable prices more often.
What an interesting spin on the 'ole, "Supply an Demand" model, amirite? Normally, when supply goes down, and demand remains the same...prices rise. What happens when the method of delivering that supply is given a death date? I'm guessing that it's sort of the same as the "supply going down."
There were signs - arguably - and as usual, sigh, I missed them :(
Loot 2.0 - Smart Drops.. Use AH less!
The Mystic - Re Roll then BOA an item - Use AH less! Can't put it up for sale on AH anyway!
Battling the Gold Farmer - your move Gold Farmers, your move. Having multi beez ain't that important if I don't know how to source the gear, now is it?
So much to think about!
Edited by Melkor#1521 on 9/18/2013 3:47 PM PDT
How relevant do you think that current GG gear will be once the AH goes offline and RoS and Loot 2.0 comes out?
Is this Blizzard's way of grabbing D3 by the corners and giving it an Etch-A-Sketch shake?
How do current GG players feel about this?
Seems to me that no matter what you choose to buy/sell/hoard, you should be looking at the game for what it is now and just have fun with it...
When RoS/Loot 2.0 comes out, with all the changes, it will be, in essence, be "D4"... no?
Good luck to those of us who hover at less than 100m. How much to make a marquis gem again? How much to craft? I hope they increase the gold drop or revalue the crafting costs.
I see a huge third party trading platform opportunity here.
Edited by Horak#1374 on 9/17/2013 12:17 PM PDT
I care. Obviously.
But really, as always, I'm more interested in "seeing what happens".
I also happen to be sitting on more commodities than you would believe...like..millions of them.
That being said, rising prices in commodities means nothing if gold becomes worthless as an exchange medium.
Melkor, I think you are spot on.
I also think that mid level gear will decrease in price. Sellers will want to get rid of as much as possible on a ticking clock. Meanwhile, buyers will recognize that what was once a seller's market will become a demand oriented economy. We will see more "wtb" specific things at a buyer dictated (or at least heavily suggested) price.
At the same time, high level gear will skyrocket in cost. This gear becomes even more coveted, as the means of transport (what was the AH) becomes far less centralized (gen chat and forum sites).
Commodities (gems, mat, gold) will rise in price as these items are likely to be recognized as non perishable under the new system, where mid level and high level non gg gear can get lost under the radar.
This is of course my opinion, and I could easily be wrong.
Incidentally, Melk, you didn't friend request me :(.
Edited by Eciton#1637 on 9/17/2013 12:34 PM PDT
I think this is a bad idea for the casual player the more I think about it. If they don't adjust the costs of crafting and rerolling then I would have to have played the game for 20 times my current play time (for gold pickup) to afford the best gems alone.
I think you're right on man. I seriously got lucky this morning and dumped all my gold on this news. <25m a gem. <600 a DE and < 800 a tome. now look at them.
I wouldn't buy ANY gear. No way will you make $. Since gear will be garbage with loot 2.
Gems and crafting wont change.
Edited by Aimless#1700 on 9/17/2013 12:39 PM PDT
DO NOT SELL OFF YOUR GEAR.
This is my sincere warning.
Without the auction house how the hell will you gear up a character ? With NO gear for farming with ? Grind ? For blues and whites ?
Gold botters will still exist because gold can still be traded for gear. However the avenues to FIND and get rid of gear is not there anymore. I'm expecting other search sites like jsp and dprog to be used more after this.
OH what I just said above will only apply if gold can be converted into money SOMEHOW. That is what I'm trying to figure out !!
Also to casual players wow this is a massive blow to weekend warriors or guys that CANT grind all time.
I'm not sure what to think about this but I've been thinking a lt about it. Still 6 months away and the landscape can change but I would suggest not selling off for a couple bucks. Instead keep your existing gear on all characters so that at least you can grind.
Imagine selling off all your chars and trying to re gear again ? From literal scratch....
I think eBay or some other third party will be used somehow to exchange gear: money.
This is a big fail for blizzard on a financial point of view. Also it hurts others since there is no protected form of trade anymore.
I'll be looking forward to the deals from panicked players the next couple months yum.
DO NOT SELL OFF YOUR GEAR.
me 2 yum yum casuals gonna whine again ah was so good
Personally I think it's an awesome turn of events. The only reason we play the game right now is to grind endless paragon levels with little to no reward. Now we will be awarded for playing by having better drops and it will change the entire culture of the community. Basically there will be a reason to play the game other than to test break points or show off.
Casuals will enjoy playig mp1.
People cashing out completely now probably should quit for good since they will have to start out at mp1 grinding for crap xp and crap loot drops.
Probably never see a level 70 item since they won't be able to kill level 70 monsters :)
And damn it AH is fun. At least leave the gold auction house and leave rmah for gold sales only or something jeez
Yeah, I agree. I think a current GG set of gear with one affix per piece rerolled by the Mystic has a chance to be decent stuff in the future, depending on how that is implemented.
What's going to be really tough is finding a weapon to drive it.
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