Except that those are not the "odds" of finding a specific item. Assuming your numbers are correct, they are still just the odds of finding any legendary item. Again, stressing that it doesn't mean 1 in every 10,562 monster kills will generate any legendary item. It simply means that the second number has a higher probability rate then the first. Which is the same as saying "I guess it can happen at some point, perhaps quicker then before because of the change in my MF gear, but only maybe...".08/30/2012 01:35 PMPosted by MithBut when you're going from 1:50,000 to 1:10,562, that's a different story.

.

When looking for a specific Item the numbers are much different because you have to factor in all the legendary items you don't want as negative hit's towards your goal. If there are 15 legendary items to choose from and you want one it would be a 1:15 chance to pick the right one out of a bag. So you have a 1:15 chance at a 1:10,562 chance of landing the item you want each time you kill a single monster. A failed chance in this case does not improve the numbers at all by elimination. So you see how insignificant the numbers start to get at that point?

Edit: Actually I got that backward. You have a 1:10,562 chance at a 1:15 chance.

You are right the difference isn't statistically insignificant, but it is insignificant for the purposes of what we are doing. It's like the difference between getting stuck by Lightning once, vs. being struck by Lightning twice. Both are still very improbable but one is much less likely then the other.08/30/2012 02:20 PMPosted by MithThat's fine, too. Because if there were 15 legendaries, you'd be going from a 1:750,000 chance to a 1:158,430 chance. To say that the difference there is still statistically insignificant is silly.

08/30/2012 02:50 PMPosted by MithIt's not all that improbable! Consider the volume of attempts. One signet-capable mob = 1 lottery ticket. Improving your odds from 1:750,000 to 1:158,430 and then buying thousands of tickets (killing thousands of mobs) actually gets you pretty decent chances.

That's a false assumption. Previous results do not effect current attempts. It does not mean that your odds get better by killing thousands of mobs. Each time you kill a mob you have a 1:158,430 chance. It just means you are trying again.

08/30/2012 03:04 PMPosted by TheNoseKnowsI just got my 15th legendary drop, from a writhing deceiver. It was Genzaniku. The thing is, I already found one not 5 minutes earlier! What are the chances of getting two of the same (though they stats aren't identical) legendaries in such a short span? Higher than finding Leoric's Signet apparently...

Try this one: I've found seven

*different*legendaries. You'd think I'd have found at least one duplicate.

The reason why you don't want to farm the VoA is because you can find other legendary rings as well. So once the game has determine you will get a legendary and that it will be a ring, it then has to decide which one.08/30/2012 03:02 PMPosted by Kankuromaybe I shouls farm only VotA and not oasis? too less packs on oasis and a lot in vota

08/30/2012 03:06 PMPosted by ChaosLeechThat's a false assumption. Previous results do not effect current attempts. It does not mean that your odds get better by killing thousands of mobs. Each time you kill a mob you have a 1:158,430 chance. It just means you are trying again.

But the more you try, the more you move further along a statistical probability graph.

E.g. Flipping a coin twice doesn't give you a 100% chance for a heads. But flipping a coin 10 times gives you somewhere in the high 90%'s for at least one heads. If you're trying to hit something like 5 heads in a row, flipping a coin 1000 times or one million times doesn't guarantee it, but it puts it well within the realm of probability, or more or less what one might call certainty.

Are you the same Mith I argued with constantly in the Beta? ;)

08/30/2012 03:10 PMPosted by ChaosLeechmaybe I shouls farm only VotA and not oasis? too less packs on oasis and a lot in votaThe reason why you don't want to farm the VoA is because you can find other legendary rings as well. So once the game has determine you will get a legendary and that it will be a ring, it then has to decide which one.

it doesn't decide if its manald or leoric. if its ilvl 17 it IS leoric. and ilvl is rolled before

Are you the same Mith I argued with constantly in the Beta? ;)

I didn't say that, but going from something like a 2% probability after many thousands of monsters to close to something like a 10% probability with capped MF+NV is huge.

And yes, very likely. I argue a lot. What did we argue about?

Just about everything, on the Feedback forums. :)

And yes, very likely. I argue a lot. What did we argue about?

personally been doing VOTA -> sewer -> oasis path wp and clearing ruined cistern.

it doesn't decide if its manald or leoric. if its ilvl 17 it IS leoric. and ilvl is rolled before

[/quote]

iLevel is rolled after rarity roll.

Rarity rolls

then checks table as to what items are available

decides item and level dependant on rarity

then rolls stats dependant on item type, rarity and ilevel.

iLevel is rolled after rarity roll.

Rarity rolls

then checks table as to what items are available

decides item and level dependant on rarity

then rolls stats dependant on item type, rarity and ilevel.

source? pretty sure its Type -> Tier -> Rarity

iLevel is rolled after rarity roll.

Rarity rolls

then checks table as to what items are available

decides item and level dependant on rarity

then rolls stats dependant on item type, rarity and ilevel.

source? pretty sure its Type -> Tier -> Rarity

Unfortunately I don't think we have a source for this. t.t

iLevel is rolled after rarity roll.

Rarity rolls

then checks table as to what items are available

decides item and level dependant on rarity

then rolls stats dependant on item type, rarity and ilevel.

source? pretty sure its Type -> Tier -> Rarity

there isn't a source, but its apparent in non-inferno legendaries as they can roll a range of ilevels. Also, not every slot has a legendary available (hence level 5 legendary belt dropping in end of act 2, got one in vota this morning)

This is hardly ever, if ever, the case when I'm doing A1 Inferno runs with next to nothing for MF.

WTB confirmed loot formulas/mechanics from Blizzard.