That it?

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04/29/2011 12:06 AMPosted by Ophidon
WoWprogress does however, continue to count dead guilds for quite a while. And there is likely to be a very substantial number of "guilds" that barely have any kills at all, as the guild fell apart upon dissention from how poorly it was performing. Just to have those people reform into new guilds that do the same thing again. Yes these are not the kind of people that are ever likely to fully clear even the normal modes of the tier, but they're still being -counted- perhaps 5 times each, instead of once. Which does taint the posted statistics considerably.


In order for the majority of WoW's population (let's call 50% majority of simplicities sake) to fit into 14717 guilds, each guild would need over 400 separate subscribers. This just isn't feasible, and as such those guilds who do die out due to poor performance and fuse to form a different guild are basically negligible, and if they did count, that only further strengthens my case as most of these people in these cases have already done some of the content already, therefore even less than 26% of current raiders have downed this tier.

Having most raiders downing firelands within 2 months just isn't happening.

I think you need to read what the original post was responding to instead of pulling things out of context.


Okay, let's look at your context.


It doesn't matter how amazing Firelands is. Why? Because most guilds will have normal modes on farm in a matter of <2 months and will be waiting another ~5 months for the next tier of content. THIS IS BORING.


Most guilds haven't cleared the current tier on normal yet and it's been 5 months. Maybe you should try more than H Halfus if you're that bored of this game?


I agree that the poster you responded to isn't right as far as his definition of "most guilds," but you responded to his concern that many guilds who house competent raiders will be bored with the 7-boss content very quickly by making a personal attack via armorying his character (ironically, you do so while posting on a forum alt).

The problem still stands: 7 bosses is less content than nearly every other tier of raiding Blizzard has released in recent history. It will not keep player interest as long as any of the rest.

But please. Continue to defend stagnation in end-game content by insulting players who are already bored of the normal content and don't particularly look forward to redoing all their progress on buffed-up versions of bosses they've already killed.

i will concede that majority is wrong, my math got jumbled in thought.

26% though is the COMMON AMOUNT that clear a tier before the next tier is released. The only anomaly to this, in the data I can find, is lolHalion (who you have to kill to even be listed as a guild for percentages) and ToC which basically EVERYONE has admitted was too easy and short.

25-30% is the number to look at, not 50, not 87, not 100.


Which is fine. The entire point of the original post was that the MAJORITY OF RAIDERS will NOT have 7/7 in Firelands within 2 months of it's release. I haven't said anything about how many will or will not down it, merely that the majority (50%+) will not be seeing Rag's loot-table within 2 months.
04/28/2011 09:24 PMPosted by Bashiok
While potentially hilarious, you wouldn't want the UI designers to be crafting raid bosses.
UI boss confirmed for firelands.
I agree that the poster you responded to isn't right as far as his definition of "most guilds," but you responded to his concern that many guilds who house competent raiders will be bored with the 7-boss content very quickly by making a personal attack via armorying his character (ironically, you do so while posting on a forum alt).

The problem still stands: 7 bosses is less content than nearly every other tier of raiding Blizzard has released in recent history. It will not keep player interest as long as any of the rest.

But please. Continue to defend stagnation in end-game content by insulting players who are already bored of the normal content and don't particularly look forward to redoing all their progress on buffed-up versions of bosses they've already killed.


I wasn't aware a suggestion was an insult. The hard modes are there for people who are bored of the current content and want something more to do. If you do not want to do it, then it's not Blizzard's fault. The content is there, it's by choice that people don't do it since it's "buffed-up versions of bosses they've already killed".
More Raid Content than Ever Before:
Enjoy more high-level raid content than previous expansions, with optional more challenging versions of all encounters.


Sited from: http://www.worldofwarcraft.com/cataclysm/faq/

Now, I don't know about everyone else but 7 bosses in a single raid (combined 10/25 lockout) structure is definitely not more raid content "than previous expansions". To me it's getting clearer and clearer that Blizzard has pulled their primary developers from WoW and moved them onto Titan. This is has been obvious for a while now in at least the art department.

I raid three nights a week currently. I do not ever feel like I am forced to raid. I raid because I greatly enjoy my guild. I enjoy spending those three nights hanging out with 24 of my friends on vent. Having a good time while we progress through content. Now, if we have only 7 bosses in this new tier, which yes may take some time but not the length of time something like ulduar would take, then this will get tiring fast.

The only reason ToC didn't result in mass exodus was the dual lock out system. Yes, I have alts I can raid on. My priest is my main though and my favorite character to raid on. If i still had the option to run a 10 and 25, I could see 7 as an ok number. However, having 1 lockout in the week with 7 bosses on it. Once it hits farm, that's 1 night a week. Dailies are boring, face it. Hardly anyone plays this game to grind dailies. If there's nothing to do, it's going to get stale.
Think of this though, the percentages go by guilds. Lets go with the stat that 26/100 guilds have killed Nef. Now consider that of the 76% of guilds that haven't killed Nef, 20% (and this might be generously low, I'll have to look into this..) are non-starter guilds that have a Magmaw kill, and disbanded (where these players then reformed into further non-starter guilds that add to these statistics again). So now, counting that 20% of guilds as the 5% (or so) of the raiding playerbase it truly represents, we have 26/61 as ratio for nef kills, or 42.6%. Quite substantially higher.
04/29/2011 12:14 AMPosted by Leemesgee
While potentially hilarious, you wouldn't want the UI designers to be crafting raid bosses.
UI boss confirmed for firelands.


This does sound hilarious! Maybe a just for fun bonus boss, somewhere? Yeah, so it'll never happen, but it's fun to imagine what the UI guys would come up with.
WoWProgress only counts guilds that have killed at least 1 raid boss, but I think it's probably true that the vast majority of people that consider themselves "raiders" would be in a guild. As other have said WoWProgress keep dead guilds around for as long as theys till have enough members in them to keep the achievement. I'm also not sure if it the % listed for boss kills takes into account 10/25 man raids so that could further skew numbers. It probably shouldn't be used as a way to determine the % of game pop that has killed X boss, but it's all we have unless Blizzard releases their internal data.
Think of this though, the percentages go by guilds. Lets go with the stat that 26/100 guilds have killed Nef. Now consider that of the 76% of guilds that haven't killed Nef, 20% (and this might be generously low, I'll have to look into this..) are non-starter guilds that have a Magmaw kill, and disbanded (where these players then reformed into further non-starter guilds that add to these statistics again). So now, counting that 30% of guilds as the 5% (or so) of the raiding playerbase it truly represents, we have 26/61 as ratio for nef kills, or 42.6%. Quite substantially higher.


I have no way of disproving this so I will have to accept it as a possibility. This is indeed something that could be true, but assuming it is, it leaves us at square one without a reliable source to cite.

And even if the numbers are skewed as much, or even more than the given example, the numbers would need to be based around guilds having an end-boss kill by the end of January/beginning of February to hold relevance to the original context, which while statistically possible to be "most" raiders, I find to be very unlikely.
04/28/2011 11:56 PMPosted by Bipolarr
Burning crusades content delivery mechanic was flawless, why reinvent the wheel?

You mean you enjoyed five months of buggy raid content until the patch gave us two instances that were announced as being in the game as of release, followed by five months of waiting for a patch with nothing but in-game voice chat, followed by several more months until we got nothing but Zul'Aman, followed by several more months until Sunwell? There was almost a full year between BT/MH and Sunwell for raiding guilds, and there was a lot of complaints about burnout then.

04/28/2011 11:19 PMPosted by Yajirobee
So overall lets say it will be another 5-6 months till 4.2 comes out using the time table on 4.1. That puts it at October or November which is getting close to a year for new raid content after the first release.

Fortunately, it won't be in the fall. Firelands was originally supposed to be in 4.1, so it has been in development for a long time. Look at the details in the preview, virtually all of the bosses have in-game models, the zone looks almost done, they talk about how the fights have been designed (implying the fight mechanics are done) on the latest blizzcast. There's probably some final touch-up work and tuning to do, plus adding a few missing models and items.

Bottom line is, you should be expecting to wait weeks for the PTR, not months.

04/28/2011 11:29 PMPosted by Popsecret
What I do not understand is why, for example, 239 heroics in Ulduar are followed by 245 normals in ToC. Or 258 to 264, etc. Why not just have heroic progression of ilvl and normal progression be different? i.e. - 359 to 372 normals and 372 to 385 heroic. Then you still do the VP and JP switch like you plan. Am I missing something? Is this harder to tune fights for? The hardcores don't care if normal modes are a breeze because they are for them anyway.

If the previous tier was still relevant, it would be "required" to continue to farm it for gear, because you always have people joining the guild, or raiders needing that one rare super-powerful item (traditionally trinkets and weapons) from the previous tier.

They tried this out back in Vanilla. T2 pants dropped from the last boss of Molten Core (10 bosses), Onyxia dropped T2 hats, the rest of T2 was in BWL (8 bosses), and AQ40 was a slight jump up to T2.5 (9 bosses, though if you were halfway through AQ40 you could probably drop MC). That was over 20 bosses a week for guilds to run, because the older tiers were still relevant for enough people that guilds "had" to run them. That's before you include ZG (for the idol enchants) and AQ20 (enchanting recipes, weapons, and skill books).

Classic had a lot of "required" raiding, and most of the time it was just loot farming, not really interesting raiding. I'd rather not go back to the days of doing the same bosses for a year and a half just for the sake of loot farming.
04/29/2011 12:16 AMPosted by Thearalyn
I wasn't aware a suggestion was an insult. The hard modes are there for people who are bored of the current content and want something more to do. If you do not want to do it, then it's not Blizzard's fault. The content is there, it's by choice that people don't do it since it's "buffed-up versions of bosses they've already killed".


Heroic versions of raids you have already downed are not comparable to genuine new content with entirely novel art, boss mechanics, and loot. It's recycled content that you get the pleasure of doing immediately after mastering the normal version of that content.

The more that heroic versions of raids are relied upon to bridge the increasingly-long gaps between content patches, the more players are going to dislike logging in for raid night.

Again, this is a problem of stagnation. Heroic modes can only do so much to stave off irritation and boredom.
04/29/2011 12:22 AMPosted by Mackk
WoWProgress only counts guilds that have killed at least 1 raid boss, but I think it's probably true that the vast majority of people that consider themselves "raiders" would be in a guild. As other have said WoWProgress keep dead guilds around for as long as theys till have enough members in them to keep the achievement. I'm also not sure if it the % listed for boss kills takes into account 10/25 man raids so that could further skew numbers. It probably shouldn't be used as a way to determine the % of game pop that has killed X boss, but it's all we have unless Blizzard releases their internal data.


Used the base "tier 11" for Cata data which combines 10 and 25 man (which probably skews numbers in some direction, can't decide wether that is up or down)

For Wrath I've been using 25m since that was considered "proper" raiding.

And you are correct that WoWprogress is not the greatest source, but as far as I know it is the best we have until Blizzard releases their numbers and someone sifts through them to figure all this out
Burning crusades content delivery mechanic was flawless, why reinvent the wheel?
I never heard a complaint about players having to spend too much time or too little for raids.
t6 lasted too long, t6.5 was way too trash-heavy before even the first boss
Well, they claim heroic Rag is totally different than normal Rag, so technically 8 bosses. But we haven't heard any plans for 4.3 yet, and given the time it takes to produce things, something has been in the works for a while.

I do hope we can see more of the Skywall because it looks amazing, but that's unlikely with Al'Akir down.
as an aside, i hope t12 isn't the interruptaclysm that t11 is. it's very annoying to last 6ish minutes in a boss fight and then one 1-sec late interrupt wipes you
04/29/2011 12:34 AMPosted by Bloodpuke
as an aside, i hope t12 isn't the interruptaclysm that t11 is. it's very annoying to last 6ish minutes in a boss fight and then one 1-sec late interrupt wipes you


Id like to add, that I am glad Blizz is doing less council fights

god I hate council fights
04/28/2011 04:02 PMPosted by Bashiok
Yeah, I mean that's a tough situation because our feeling is simply that people shouldn't be forced to play the game more than a couple nights a week to keep up on progression.


Thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you.

Those are some of the most beautiful blue words I've ever seen.

I realize there are players with lifestyles in which they don't have to work full time, and I have no problem with them or those that do work sacrificing a social life in order to be the best in the world.

However, for the rest of us, we just want to have fun (both on AND off the computer) while still progressing at a less "bleeding edge" extent; all the while still enjoying other aspects of the game.

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