LFR loot - 0-45..this can't be right

Dungeons, Raids and Scenarios
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You say you understand statistics and the gambler's fallacy, then turn around and say 0/45 or even 1/45 from those rolls, being less than 15%, is broken and unacceptable.

15% chance of loot does not mean every single person gets loot from 15% of their kills. It means you have a 15% chance to get loot. This also means that it is possible for some people, in rare cases, to experience really unlucky streaks. This had been explained to you over and over again.

Mathematics.
11/16/2012 10:14 PMPosted by Nerlixx
AND there is someone out there who's won 13.5 pieces of loot in their 45 runs too.


i got 8 items from 9 lfr bosses last week

suck it OP
theres someone out there whos won 45 times in 45 attempts.
11/17/2012 11:21 PMPosted by Postonforums
theres someone out there whos won 45 times in 45 attempts.


And he isn't here in the forums crying that he got too much loot.
11/17/2012 11:02 PMPosted by Spewchi
AND there is someone out there who's won 13.5 pieces of loot in their 45 runs too.


i got 8 items from 9 lfr bosses last week

suck it OP

So the new cool thing to do is to insult the people who has very bad luck? all i see here is people with nice luck and nice gear mocking people who sadly has won nothing or very few stuff. Wait i forgot that these are WoW forums ...
I went all of FL and DS/H DS without ever seeing a tank shield on my paladin (who is exalted with FL) and my warrior. That's over 45 kills of Baleroc and Warmaster/H Warmaster. Now that I got the one from MV on my 2nd kill, it's a tad bit liberating. OP - remember, while you may feel that your luck is crap, remember, there is always someone else out there in the same boat as you. Suck it up, move on, and when you do get those items you want and that you've been after, it'll feel that much better.

Shouldn't expect to get handed loot.

Oh, and LFR isn't for loot. According to Blizzard, LFR is designed and intended for people to see content that would otherwise not get to see it. The loot is a secondary bonus to being there.

Oh, and one other thing, nice LFR Starshatter. I'm sure that affects your 0/45 statistic that you threw out there, last I checked 1 > 0.
11/18/2012 03:24 AMPosted by Stuffed


i got 8 items from 9 lfr bosses last week

suck it OP

So the new cool thing to do is to insult the people who has very bad luck? all i see here is people with nice luck and nice gear mocking people who sadly has won nothing or very few stuff. Wait i forgot that these are WoW forums ...


Yes, crucify us for telling him to suck it up because we have gear and most of us worked for it being valor and crafted gear. VP - it's there, it's free, it takes time, that's it. Get it and stop complaining you don't have shiny purples.
11/18/2012 03:43 AMPosted by Torudo
Yes, crucify us for telling him to suck it up because we have gear

... lol
Yes, crucify us for telling him to suck it up because we have gear and most of us worked for it being valor and crafted gear.

... lol


You forgot the rest of that. Cutting out my whole sentence to suit your needs proves how petty you are. I did however fix it for you. However, my point still stands, regardless if I have gear or not, suck it up. You shouldn't expect to get gear if you can't do the work for the FREE gear. Feelings will get hurt - do the work and I'm sure you feel better with your VP gear.

^_^

Edit for smiley - everyone needs a smiley.
I understand the math. My question about not understanding was meant to address the poster above that statement.

I understand LFR is designed for a 15% loot drop...0-45 is nowhere near 15%.

That statement shows that you don't understand the math.
1 in 1500 chance for loot should still not be possible

I understand the math

I understand LFR is designed for a 15% loot drop...0-45 is nowhere near 15%.


This is why you don't do drugs in Year 8 Maths Classes people.
Let me break down the last few responses...

1) Another poster pointing to my few pieces of LFR and saying I'm lying....Yet another person who needs to read what I posted in this post so that they don't look like a....

2) 0-45 is a streak that started from last week on three different toons, it is a consistant streak in LFR raids. I haven't cherry picked anything.

3) LFR is designed for a 15% drop rate..this has been said multiple times...It was not designed for X number of top rolls win loot. The design is for a 15% drop rate (1 in 7 tries on average will win a piece of gear) So if I was an average person, I would have won 6 pieces of gear during this streak. That would be 15% - I won zero - again no where near 15% drop rate they have designed for.

4) I have seen several people post the 1 in X odds. I just choose 1500 from a poster which seems about right. So by that number the drop rate for me in a system that is designed for 15% has me at .07%. That is a far cry from 15%.

5) Trying for one piece of loot off a certain boss in a raid is not the same thing. the math isnt the same so I don't know why people keep trying to compare it to this thread. There are upwrads of 30 pieces of gear I can get....not one specific piece. I have run many old dungeons many times for certain gear and never recieved those pieces of loot either...This is not about those situations. I would not have posted that situation on the customer service forum. Again I didn't move my post. Apperently I recieved the same customer service on the forums as I do in game :(

6) Mattick - Obviously some people can get on a losing streak or I wouldn't have posted this - My question - to blizz i might add - was "Is a .07% streak acceptable to them?" I realize in theory any numbers are possible, I could go 0-1500. I could go 1500-1500. There is a reason they picked the 15% number. My goal with this post was to find out if it's just me or is there a problem.

7) Thanks STUFFED for your support.
Well, I could say Ive had bad or good luck. 2x tier leggs from Sha of Anger in the same kill. Then LFR tier leggs from LFR. YES!
11/16/2012 09:20 PMPosted by Konviction
by enlarge
The problem is that you're cherry picking.

If I win 6 pieces of loot out of 6 in the first week, then go 0 for 45, my current results would not 0-45. It's actually 6 out of 51, which is 12%. Still below average, and obviously very unlucky, but far less than you think.

You're picking the bad data, and excluding the good data to make your case. Your understanding of statistics and probability is not as well developed as you think it is.
I've decided that the OP is either trolling or needs to learn probability and statistics from scratch.
11/18/2012 07:59 AMPosted by Konviction
The design is for a 15% drop rate (1 in 7 tries on average will win a piece of gear) So if I was an average person, I would have won 6 pieces of gear during this streak. That would be 15% - I won zero - again no where near 15% drop rate they have designed for.

So by that number the drop rate for me in a system that is designed for 15% has me at .07%. That is a far cry from 15%.


You're saying it, but you're clearly not understanding.

Average does not mean "every person will win about 6 peices of gear". Average means "most people will get about 6 peices of gear". You're unlucky enough in this case to not have been one of the most people.

You're not bugged, and you're not the only one (there are a few other threads). You were just relatively unlucky. It happens.

You're like the guy who wins at the casino 45times in a row- except in reverse.

11/18/2012 07:59 AMPosted by Konviction
Mattick - Obviously some people can get on a losing streak or I wouldn't have posted this - My question - to blizz i might add - was "Is a .07% streak acceptable to them?" I realize in theory any numbers are possible, I could go 0-1500. I could go 1500-1500. There is a reason they picked the 15% number. My goal with this post was to find out if it's just me or is there a problem.


They've basically said it's fine, because, 1 it's extremely unlikely (and like you yourself have said, it's not like you've gotten no gear over the entire teir, just very little), and 2, you're still getting gear from rep/VP etc.

11/18/2012 07:59 AMPosted by Konviction
Apperently I recieved the same customer service on the forums as I do in game :(


They don't really answer questions like this. What most people have been saying, is what they're going to say.

And lets be honest, you're hoping they're going to come in and say "you're right, this is wrong, we're sorry". They're not going to say that, and so you're not going to feel any better.
11/18/2012 07:59 AMPosted by Konviction
2) 0-45 is a streak that started from last week on three different toons, it is a consistant streak in LFR raids. I haven't cherry picked anything.


That is cherry picking. Like I said, there were probably like 8 people that went 0-6 in our LFR run of Heart of Fear. They went a combined 0-48. By your logic, those people didn't get 15% drop rates so they should come here and complain. Plus, you're not including the drops you did win. You can't just pick a streak somewhere and say "Well, that wasn't 15%."

3) LFR is designed for a 15% drop rate..this has been said multiple times...It was not designed for X number of top rolls win loot. The design is for a 15% drop rate (1 in 7 tries on average will win a piece of gear) So if I was an average person, I would have won 6 pieces of gear during this streak. That would be 15% - I won zero - again no where near 15% drop rate they have designed for.


Yes, LFR is designed for a 15% drop rate. However, in order for a complaint to be valid, you must have statistically relevant data. Your "0-45" shenanigans aren't statistically relevant, they're infinitesimal.

4) I have seen several people post the 1 in X odds. I just choose 1500 from a poster which seems about right. So by that number the drop rate for me in a system that is designed for 15% has me at .07%. That is a far cry from 15%.


Some other jackass went 29.93% and made up for it.

11/18/2012 07:59 AMPosted by Konviction
6) Mattick - Obviously some people can get on a losing streak or I wouldn't have posted this - My question - to blizz i might add - was "Is a .07% streak acceptable to them?" I realize in theory any numbers are possible, I could go 0-1500. I could go 1500-1500. There is a reason they picked the 15% number. My goal with this post was to find out if it's just me or is there a problem.


Yes, it is acceptable, and your numbers are an illusion anyway.
11/17/2012 11:21 PMPosted by Postonforums
theres someone out there whos won 45 times in 45 attempts.


Since you seem to be keen on the math, the chance of someone winning loot 45 times in a row is...

1 in 11,909,494,892,268,810,788,346,402,666,714,000,000.

That's 1 in 11 Undecillion.

So no, I'd say there hasn't been someone whos won 45 times in 45 attempts.

(you are more likely to pick the 6 winning lottery numbers in the UK 5 times in a row than win loot in LFR 45 times in a row)
He'd probably be posting here about his good luck lol

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