Are MMOs dying?

Games, Gaming and Hardware
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So this xfire thingy is the Nielson Ratings for MMO's?

How many people use that thing?

No, but I'd suggest the sample size might be relevant enough since September, that it might be a relevant indicator.

I mainly credit it because I was a SWTOR member from launch, and I remember the SWTOR crowd dismissing XFire and other numbers from the beginning of this past year showing a huge decline almost immediately.

Turns out the critics and Luddites were wrong. If XFire is right again, MMOs as a whole, including WoW, are in possibly the steepest decline in years.

And it's not like the XFire crowd has just suddenly turned anti-MMO. They showed the expected kind of increases around the GW2, MoP and SWTOR F2P launches.
12/10/2012 03:33 AMPosted by Dliver
So then why aren't they picking it up more, not less?


Why do I have like, 15 games on Steam that I've bought and paid for, but never played?

Honestly, I feel more drawn to playing WoW because I have a financial investment in it.
It clearly shows only 5,902 Xfire users playing per day for WoW.

This thing is obviously crap, and should not be taken seriously.


Your second sentence there does not follow from the first.
Wow... xfire is not a "sample" site. It shows 5902 "xfire users" play wow per day. Using the statistics they gather from the 5902 xfire WoW players, they make a 5902 player sample of trends in game play hours...
People still use xfire?
12/10/2012 04:36 AMPosted by Dliver
Wow... xfire is not a "sample" site. It shows 5902 "xfire users" play wow per day. Using the statistics they gather from the 5902 xfire WoW players, they make a 5902 player sample of trends in game play hours...


Um, and if you sampled several thousand people over enough time that'd be many times more than you'd need to draw statistically significant conclusions, provided they were random.

Holy !@#$, I didn't realize Americans were such fail-hards at statistics or math. %^-*, no wonder there's such a mess in D.C.


I'm on your side here ya jumpy male blood elf. My amazement is at the DK that does not see this.
12/10/2012 04:36 AMPosted by Dliver
Um, and if you sampled several thousand people over enough time that'd be many times more than you'd need to draw statistically significant conclusions, provided they were random.


The population on X-Fire does not constitute a true random sample. There are no statistically significant conclusions you can draw other than to say that the population of people using X-Fire does not play MMOs on weekends as much as they used to.
12/10/2012 04:36 AMPosted by Dliver
Holy !@#$, I didn't realize Americans were such fail-hards at statistics or math. %^-*, no wonder there's such a mess in D.C.


Yea, because the rest of the world is thriving?
12/10/2012 04:38 AMPosted by Lukar
The population on X-Fire does not constitute a true random sample.


That's right. XFire should be criticized on that basis, not on the spurious basis that not enough people use it. Making a biased sample larger doesn't improve things.
Apparently WoW has been dying since vanilla, yet the game keeps getting stronger. Also, I don't know anyone who uses xfire anymore.
12/10/2012 04:38 AMPosted by Demonae
Ya, less than 6000 of them, out ofthe 10,000,000 people that play WoW.


Most of the political polls use a sample of 10,000 or so to extrapolate to a population of over 300,000,000. It's a large enough sample, but it's not a true "random" sample.
12/10/2012 04:38 AMPosted by Demonae
People still use xfire?


Ya, less than 6000 of them, out ofthe 10,000,000 people that play WoW.

That is a sample size of less than 0.1%, or so small as to be completely unreliable for anything at all.


Hue, willing to bet that last year there was significantly more people that play wow using xfire and that that change is what caused the number of hours played to drastically decrease.
12/10/2012 04:38 AMPosted by Demonae
That is a sample size of less than 0.1%, or so small as to be completely unreliable for anything at all.


You apparently aren't aware that for a random sample, the number of sample points needed to reach a given level of statistical significance is independent of the population size. So, phrasing the sample size as percentage of the population size, as you do, is mathematically ignorant.
12/10/2012 04:12 AMPosted by Demonae
Yo, moron, nowhere on the page does it says it is a "statistical sample". Reading comprehension for the dumbass.


Good god I hope you're trolling instead of really being this dimwitted.
Yo, moron, nowhere on the page does it says it is a "statistical sample". Reading comprehension for the dumbass.


Good god I hope you're trolling instead of really being this dimwitted.


Yep, and to the critics, if you don't like this sample and don't think it's random or representative enough, suggest another.

My experience is this sample, while not perfect, accurately predicted the declines in both SWTOR early this past year and GW2 recently. These samples are showing steep, steep declines in MoP just since September.

Comments like "I don't know anyone that uses XFire" aren't particularly relevant unless you knew people that *were* using XFire in September and now aren't using XFire in December *and* you think there's some reason why those people are representative.

Again, not trying to be a kill-joy but I had the experience of being on S.S. SWTOR screaming about the sinking ship back in February and being ignored. Now, WoW is nowhere near SWTOR's level of fail yet, but it concerns me that these numbers show such horrendous declines in 3 months (from 60,000+ to 30,000) and show MMOs as a whole just totally jumping the shark this year.

We've gone from 100,000+ hour weekend days in the early part of this year to sub-30,000 for WoW. Um, that's a big huge deal that's happened in a hurry.

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