Blizzard, Sha and Galleon mounts (Part 2)

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02/07/2013 01:21 PMPosted by Daltin
Speaking of which, did they ever clarify why exactly sometimes I get Postmaster mail saying I've lost an item in the Twisting Nether, and it's always a blank mail?


As far as that goes, I found my answer. Apparently the game is just making sure you get your VP/JP after a clear.
I think people don't realize how small of a chance .05% actually is. In Vanilla, Baron was probably killed a lot more times per week than Sha/Galleon and it took years on some servers to even see 1 of them.

This issue is the .05% chance on a 1 per week kill


Im fairly sure I know what .05% chance is, but its not a 1 per week kill. 10's of thousands of players kill him every week. With a .05% drop rate it would only take about 18.5k players to kill him to achieve 99.99% odds of someone getting it.

math: odds of him not dropping it for 1 player kill = 1-0.05% =0.9995 (from your supposition that it is .05%)
.9995^18416 = 0.0001 or about .01% chance of no one getting it or about 99.99% chance that someone would get it.


Sure it's a one per week kill, you kill it once per week. How many times did you kill Baron per week in Vanilla? I know I probably logged at least 10. My server never saw a Baron mount until the Naxx patch
im not sure about justice or valor but its means your bags are full and you cannot receive loot usealy its in lfr, so they mail you that letter then the item

i thought i had a stalker or somethign at first lol i didnt know what htey were either

this post is for Daltin
posting for interest


Im fairly sure I know what .05% chance is, but its not a 1 per week kill. 10's of thousands of players kill him every week. With a .05% drop rate it would only take about 18.5k players to kill him to achieve 99.99% odds of someone getting it.

math: odds of him not dropping it for 1 player kill = 1-0.05% =0.9995 (from your supposition that it is .05%)
.9995^18416 = 0.0001 or about .01% chance of no one getting it or about 99.99% chance that someone would get it.


Sure it's a one per week kill, you kill it once per week. How many times did you kill Baron per week in Vanilla? I know I probably logged at least 10. My server never saw a Baron mount until the Naxx patch


Just stop. A .05% chance for 6,000 people is a lot different than .05% chance for 9 million.

".05% is .05%" I'm sure is what's coming next, but please don't try and argue 6,000 chances at hitting the magic .05% number is identical to 9,000,000 people hitting the number.
02/07/2013 12:35 PMPosted by Havarti
Is my wowhead acting up or did they remove all the screen shots of this mount?


Just checked after reading your post. The screen shot has been removed from Wowhead. I can confirm it was there this morning.
One week I did Sha and didn't even get the gold bag. I wonder if these two issues are linked. I run WoW with no addons installed, and I never have issues looting things.

When I reported getting nothing to a GM, he agreed with me after looking into his logs and gave me a gold bag. I wonder if I was going to get the Sha mount but instead got nothing.

Anyone else ever fail to get the Gold bag from the Sha?


I have failed at getting a loot before, but it was from a Galleon kill (Which made it hurt alot more) I contacted the Gm and he/she/it/them did see that I met all the right conditions in order to recieve loot (I was in the group with the tag, was doing damage to the boss) After the kill, I didn't get loot, or a chance to use my coin. GM was kind enough to give me a gold bag (Though, I just really want them to prevent this from happening, seeing as how a Galleon kill isn't as easy as a Sha kill) and said they will look into the issue.

EDIT: Just for clarification, I never had to run to my body, as I did not die during that encounter.


The last Galleon kill I was part of I had this happen to me.. got the kill, no loot, no gold, no chance to use a coin. Sent up a ticket and logged off.

Next day when I log in there's the Postmaster mail with nothing attached.

2 days later a GM catches me online and we go over the issue, he says that as far as he can tell I was part of the kill but the system didn't flag me for loot for some reason. Bag of gold, sorry about the inconvenience, the usual. I didn't think to mention the Postmaster mail at that time since I had already put it out of my mind. Now I'm wondering if it would have made a difference.

Guess I can chalk it up as 'The one that got away'.. I'll never know if that's true or not, but it's amusing to think of it that way.
02/07/2013 01:34 PMPosted by Agememnon
Sure it's a one per week kill, you kill it once per week. How many times did you kill Baron per week in Vanilla? I know I probably logged at least 10. My server never saw a Baron mount until the Naxx patch


The problem is not that single people aren't getting the mount. The problem is that out of millions, and let me emphasize that we're talking multiple 1,000,000, of loots across all realms for US/EU/Asian servers no one has gotten the mount. Zero people. Even at a lower drop rate than .05% that's statistically impossible.
02/07/2013 01:34 PMPosted by Agememnon
Sure it's a one per week kill, you kill it once per week. How many times did you kill Baron per week in Vanilla? I know I probably logged at least 10. My server never saw a Baron mount until the Naxx patch


40 players per raid, Sha goes down almost as often as he spawns, every 15 minutes. 2000 loots per week, per realm. Close to 200k loots per week and you actually think a .05% drop rate explains this?
im not sure about justice or valor but its means your bags are full and you cannot receive loot usealy its in lfr, so they mail you that letter then the item

i thought i had a stalker or somethign at first lol i didnt know what htey were either

this post is for Daltin


I have 60 open spaces in my bags, I assure you, it isn't because my bags are full lol.

There was a blue post confirmation somewhere that confirmed it was VP/JP, but I don't want to bother looking for it. I just googled "Postmaster mail after LFR" and I found it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBk2YW6WlOA
02/07/2013 01:42 PMPosted by Rakrug
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBk2YW6WlOA


"This is the same person with the screenshot on WOWHEAD. All it is is a mount morph program. It isn't real."

Second comment down under the video.

Either link an armory or leave. We've already discussed multiple times that this is fake.
I was starting to wonder why I haven't seen one yet...
02/07/2013 01:42 PMPosted by Rakrug
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBk2YW6WlOA


You can edit the appearance of your character and your character's mounts with a well known Character Editor program.

In fact, this is mentioned in the very first post.

So apparently nobody has obtained a Sha or Galleon mount, ever. There is 0 proof this is on the loot tables at all. There are a few screenshots but mostly the people are in t3 etc which leads me to believe they are using a certain morphing program I won't name.


I'm not attacking or being hostile, I don't expect people to read through all 21 pages (or 47, depending on how you look at it), but read the first post at least :(
I'm not going to read 21 pages, has anyone posted any DEFINITIVE proof that these mounts have dropped?
There's a comment on wowhead where someone claims that two guildies got Son of Galleon. Doing some (easy) investigation I found that guild:
http://us.battle.net/wow/en/guild/nerzhul/Duh_Winning/roster?character=values&sort=lvl&dir=a

Now, I'm not up to checking everyone's mounts to prove or deny their comment, but one of you determined types are welcome to it.


Despite knowing it would be a complete waste of time, I actually clicked through the Mounts page of every single level 88+ member of that guild and, you guessed it, no mounts. I did however find a level 89 toon that only has 5 mounts total. Not sure how that's even possible.
02/07/2013 01:46 PMPosted by Byniri
I'm not going to read 21 pages, has anyone posted any DEFINITIVE proof that these mounts have dropped?


None.
WoW gods, why do you stay in silence when your loyal servants have come requesting an answer? Please heed our wishes and tell us if it's broken.

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