LFR Drop Rate issues

Dungeons, Raids and Scenarios
Prev 1 2 3 6 Next

This is my alt: http://us.battle.net/wow/en/character/area-52/Orthio/advanced


Btw your glyph choices on your alt is very wrong. If you'll take Halo glyph you'll see a huge dps increase. Noxxic.com is a good source to stay updated on class/spec changes also howtopriest.com
The drop rate is ~1-2 items per full clear (meaning all 16 bosses). You have killed 22 bosses. You have been slightly unlucky but far from super unlucky. Keep plugging.


It averages 2.56 item per clear (3.04 if you use 3 elder charms). This assumes a 16% loot chance per boss. LFR heroes will also be getting VP gear (or should), so that's another fraction of an item per week. The time to near diminishing returns on LFR drops is a month or two.
People need to realize that LFR drops will happen in a bell curve distribution. Some people get a lot, some don't get anything, the majority of players fall somewhere in between. I got gear drops on 3 of 4 bosses in LFR ToES yesterday, but got nothing the week before. Your personal experience is not an idication that drop rates need to be changed.
02/03/2013 07:52 AMPosted by Tacobeef
It's more like 1 item a month, but there's about 10% of players who have not seen a single drop since launch (the people on the left side of the bell curve).


This is not correct. The chance that someone who has been running MSV will have seen nothing since launch is so tiny that we would not expect a single player in the entire world to have experienced this. If people are without drops at this point it's because they've skipped lots of weeks/bosses.
02/03/2013 07:52 AMPosted by Tacobeef
It's more like 1 item a month, but there's about 10% of players who have not seen a single drop since launch (the people on the left side of the bell curve). About the same # as the people who get 8 drops per week (the people on the right side of the bell curve).


Do you have any proof of your statements? Can you actually find me a character who hasn't gotten an item in a month, or a character who has been running LFR every week since launch and has nothing?

This smells like more of your BS.

02/03/2013 07:52 AMPosted by Tacobeef
The point is, LFR is designed to take about 9-12 months to gear up - you are never going to be able to progress using just LFR, Blizzard wants to force you into doing dailies, running PVP, etc... their whole goal is to keep people paying subscriptions. That's it. It's the same reason 60% of normal mode guilds are stuck on Garalon or Elegon (bosses designed to be full stop roadblocks until Blizzard releases nerfs on their pre-planned schedule) still. They don't want average players to finish the raiding tier until the next one is out.


Once again you show no proof of anything and just pull numbers out of thin air. How do you expect anyone to take you seriously?

By the way, at one item a month wouldn't it be 16+ months, since there are 16 item slots and a chance at duplicate loot? Your posts aren't even internally consistent. It's pretty hilarious.

02/03/2013 07:52 AMPosted by Tacobeef
I think it will backfire tremendously though, I guess we'll have to see in a few days. If subscriptions are up, expect more of the same slow plodding gameplay. If subscriptions are down, expect immediate changes to improve the rate of progress.


Why would they do that? Dragon Soul showed that when people get fully geared they stop playing.

I have yet to see anyone post who has done LFR consistently and is NOT ready for the next tier of content.
02/03/2013 08:32 AMPosted by Hyjinx
I have yet to see anyone post who has done LFR consistently and is NOT ready for the next tier of content.


I have three characters ready for T15 LFR, and am working on a fourth -- and that's with a detour that cost more than a month of progress early in 5.0.

The time required to gear up a character is much less than the length the tier is out, if you aren't extremely lazy.
02/03/2013 08:32 AMPosted by Hyjinx
Do you have any proof of your statements? Can you actually find me a character who hasn't gotten an item in a month, or a character who has been running LFR every week since launch and has nothing?


His guess was high, but the point remains. Statistically, we should see about 2% of the player base to run all 6 bosses of MSV 4 weeks in a row and get no loot whatsoever. If they run all 16 bosses all 4 weeks (assuming they get the gear elsewhere), only 30 out of every million characters should go entirely without gear. Assuming 3 tokens get rolled each week, it's 0.3% and 4 out of a million.

Very low odds, but very possible. The odds of me rolling 3 of 4 pieces of gear in a single week of ToES without using tokens (I did, this week) are lower than someone using all three tokens in MSV four weeks in a row and losing all 36 rolls in a row. Low probability events do happen.
Yeah but LFR has been out for 3 months, the odds of you running all 16 bosses for 3 months using coins every week and getting absolutely nothing are so low that we should expect it has literally never happened. Compare this to the troll who suggested that 10% of all players using it should never see anything.
02/03/2013 05:02 AMPosted by Annula
P.S. my toon is NOT a guy it's a female. I am a female and females play this game too just an FYI


Wait, you mean the higher pitched raiders in my guild might be telling the truth when they claim to lack a Y chromosome? We all figured they were five year old boys, to be honest.

FYI, I don't care if you're male, female, an alien from Pluto, or a nine dimensional energy being.

02/03/2013 05:11 AMPosted by Annula
Btw your glyph choices on your alt is very wrong. If you'll take Halo glyph you'll see a huge dps increase. Noxxic.com is a good source to stay updated on class/spec changes also howtopriest.com


My dear madam, by "glyph" you mean "talent," I presume?

A few other things:

1, Noxxic is...troublesome. Their shadow priest section is decent right now, but that's only because I spent several days emailing them and helping them fix a ton of mistakes they had (and I'd be happy to forward the emails as proof). HowToPriest is far better, Noxxic is only for someone who is an absolute beginner.

2, the difference between Divine Star and using Halo absolutely perfectly (meaning 25ish yard range every cast every 40 seconds) is about 2.5% DPS. It's not a "huge DPS increase" like you think it is. Significant on DPS checks, sure, but only if the fight lends itself to using it correctly.

3, Halo is not always the best choice for a fight. In this case, I was helping a group with Heroic Spirit Kings, where Halo is ineffective during a large portion of the fight. Furthermore, they were having some healing issues in p1 where everyone is stacked up, which makes Divine Star extremely good. It is also better than Halo at breaking and recovering from Maddening Shout. Cascade can also be better than Halo, in particular for fights like Elegon Blade Lord, Garalon, and Ambershaper.

02/03/2013 05:02 AMPosted by Annula
I don't need to explain myself to you but going to since you seem so anal why I haven't done MSV like you have done it uber 4 times. Because I took a break from this game and I haven't played for 3 months. I maybe logged once a day and then didn't log for 6 days. You got that? There are people who play this game who have real life, obligations, family and businesses. Unlike others who spend 7 days online, 365 days a week.


Hahaha, my fair lady, you're really preaching to the wrong person here. I founded <Despotism> near the end of WotLK for exactly the reasons you describe. We raid two nights a week and are 14/16H at the moment (should be 15/16H tonight). Quite a few of us often have weeks where we can barely log on for the two raid nights.

Not to mention your activity feed proves you a liar: http://us.battle.net/wow/en/character/stormrage/Annula/feed

On the 16th on December you had your *fifth* LFR Sha of Fear kill - which means you had been 470+ ilvl for five weeks running. You also have activity every few days since that point with the exception of a three WEEK (not three MONTH) break from December 26th to January 18th.

02/03/2013 05:02 AMPosted by Annula
I actually wrote my experience on my blog at http://wowtipper.com/gonna-have-to-replace-ya/


That was an unfortunate experience you had. I've also had one - where the raid leader decided to replace me as a healer because I was smiting during the night phase on Tsulong (we were wiping at like 5% and no one was dying during the night phase). Bad things happen. Pick yourself up and try again.

Congrats on the Ashes of A'lar, by the way.

02/03/2013 05:02 AMPosted by Annula
I was very very lucky that ONE time and I got into a group with a very good rl and everyone in group was very good too.


How is it that you've only been lucky in finding a good PUG group *one* time in, what, three *months?* And I've been lucky in finding a good PUG *nine* times in like three *weeks?* With absolutely no connections or resources on the server to boot.

02/03/2013 05:02 AMPosted by Annula
So just because someone cleared MSV ones on an alt but it was a 1 shot everything pug, doesnt' mean that person is inexperienced as you are implying here.


You want to find 6/6 HoF groups when you've only killed the first *three* bosses on your MAIN. Do you not see the problem with this? You are inexperienced, and you're going to have to suffer through groups wiping to get Wind Lord, Ambershaper, and maybe even Empress kills.

P.S. *I* wouldn't want to take your main to HoF based on your armory. You know why? You're using 320 stamina gems AND 80 agility + 160 Mastery/Dodge gems AND 320 mastery gems.

If Mastery is your best tanking stat, you'd want Agil/Mastery for red, Mastery for yellow, and Stam/Mastery for blue.

If Stamina is your best tanking stat, you'd want Agil/Stam for red, Stam/Mastery for yellow, and Stam for blue.

If Agility is your best tanking stat, you'd want Agil for red, Agil/Mastery for yellow, and Agil/Stam for blue.

But you are following none of these paradigms, even if it's your offset. It's completely nonsensical.
02/03/2013 10:07 AMPosted by Outlandr
Do you have any proof of your statements? Can you actually find me a character who hasn't gotten an item in a month, or a character who has been running LFR every week since launch and has nothing?


His guess was high, but the point remains. Statistically, we should see about 2% of the player base to run all 6 bosses of MSV 4 weeks in a row and get no loot whatsoever. If they run all 16 bosses all 4 weeks (assuming they get the gear elsewhere), only 30 out of every million characters should go entirely without gear. Assuming 3 tokens get rolled each week, it's 0.3% and 4 out of a million.

Very low odds, but very possible. The odds of me rolling 3 of 4 pieces of gear in a single week of ToES without using tokens (I did, this week) are lower than someone using all three tokens in MSV four weeks in a row and losing all 36 rolls in a row. Low probability events do happen.


Taco never has a point. He just uses extreme hyperbole to try and inflame everyone, preferably against Blizzard. He never has any proof of his claims and hasn't posted anything useful in at least the past 6 months.

Nobody I've seen post has had those low odds. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a hidden system making sure they don't happen, but even if there wasn't there are plenty of other methods to get gear even if you managed to be among the .03% for a single month.

There is no point. At all.
02/03/2013 02:10 PMPosted by Hyjinx
Nobody I've seen post has had those low odds. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a hidden system making sure they don't happen, but even if there wasn't there are plenty of other methods to get gear even if you managed to be among the .03% for a single month.


You get at least 1 item if you clear all 16 bosses, it's programmed in, nobody has ever gone 0/16.

Everyone who's been saying this got caught with egg on their face, but usually they have 5 or 6 items in their feed, just not THEIR ITEM
02/03/2013 02:12 PMPosted by Asane
Nobody I've seen post has had those low odds. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a hidden system making sure they don't happen, but even if there wasn't there are plenty of other methods to get gear even if you managed to be among the .03% for a single month.


You get at least 1 item if you clear all 16 bosses, it's programmed in, nobody has ever gone 0/16.


This is not true, the chance is 15% for every boss no matter if you've gotten something previously. How do you imagine this would even work anyway?
It's more like 1 item a month, but there's about 10% of players who have not seen a single drop since launch (the people on the left side of the bell curve). About the same # as the people who get 8 drops per week (the people on the right side of the bell curve).

The point is, LFR is designed to take about 9-12 months to gear up - you are never going to be able to progress using just LFR, B


Your just making these numbers up. They have no basis in reality.
02/03/2013 02:19 PMPosted by Mahourai
This is not true, the chance is 15% for every boss no matter if you've gotten something previously. How do you imagine this would even work anyway?


I have been asking since Week 1 of LFR, for this mythical 16/16 LFR clear with 0 items, and never seen 1.

Now, that sounds ancedotal, but looking at the sample size of thousands, who've run it a dozen times, and myself adding about 30-40 clears to that, There has not been a SINGLE character who's gone 0/16.

The fact that the argument pops up EVERY single time "WELL YOU MIGHT GO 0/16" and that LITERALLY nobody has (Again, winning 9 items you don't want and not the one you do isn't striking out) been this mythical (what was it, 4%?) creature, has made me further research.

I'm 99% convinced theres something in the system that predetermines that you'll win at least 1 item in a given week if you full clear.

Feel free to prove me wrong, I actually am hoping someone does so I can stop looking through 100's of armories to try and find the missing link.
This is not true, the chance is 15% for every boss no matter if you've gotten something previously. How do you imagine this would even work anyway?


I have been asking since Week 1 of LFR, for this mythical 16/16 LFR clear with 0 items, and never seen 1.


This is just as bad a cargo cult theory as the ones LFR loot beggars develop when they don't get loot. There is absolutely nothing preventing you from failing to receive loot from every boss in LFR. Again, how do you imagine such a system works? Is there a secret weight that improves as you beat bosses or use coins and don't get anything, ensuring you receive a piece of loot and then resetting to baseline? It's interesting that such a system exists when everything Blizzard has stated indicates that it doesn't, and announcing that such a system exists would placate a lot of people's demands for loot when they know they are guaranteed something.

EDIT:

Removed some statements about how unlikely it is as my napkin math says getting nothing is not terribly unlikely. For the record my priest received nothing from my first full LFR clear besides 16 bags. I'm now mostly fully LFR geared though.
Prove it wrong.

I prove the lfr loot qqs wrong every single time, by linking their items they've won every single post (You can check if you'd like)
Prove it wrong.


There is no such system. The evidence is that we know what the system actually is (a flat 15% chance to win an item per loot roll). You have to prove such a system exists.
02/03/2013 02:45 PMPosted by Mahourai
There is no such system. The evidence is that we know what the system actually is (a flat 15% chance to win an item per loot roll). You have to prove such a system exists.


02/03/2013 02:44 PMPosted by Asane
Prove it wrong.
You're the one contending that, apart from the LFR loot system that they've stated, Blizzard is running secret balancing mechanics behind the curtain. You have to prove it exists. This is like asking me to prove that LFR drop rates aren't determined by phases of the moon using hard data - you've got to provide proof to start with first. "I've never seen anyone get totally screwed" is not compelling evidence against the fact that the developers have already said exactly what the chance is.

EDIT:

"The new [LFR] loot system won't have a record of your loot history or check your inventory.

...

The only thing the system looks at is 1) if you are eligible for loot (have you killed this guy already this week?), and 2) what your current spec is." - Zarhym

Blue post stating LFR does not check whether or not you've received an item already, and stating that the only considerations are your spec and eligibility.

Join the Conversation

Return to Forum